Dmitry Bivol vs Canelo Álvarez

Data as of: 2026-06-09 21:06:10 UTC Historical result As-of 2022-05-07

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bivol vs Álvarez 07 May 2022 Result: Bivol Historical result Pick 64.24% Prediction: Correct Light heavyweight Tap to expand Analysis

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Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Dmitry Bivol (U D)

Historical lean Dmitry Bivol 64.24%

Prediction result Correct

Bivol odds 5.5000

Álvarez odds 1.2381

Bivol implied 18.18%

Álvarez implied 80.77%

Closing odds 5.5

Closing implied 18.18%

Expected return 3.5331

ROI 253.31%

Edge 46.06%

Lean Value

Bout Historical result

Closing odds captured 2026-03-23 16:23:07 UTC

Fighter details

Dmitry Bivol

Score 79.81 · 25-1-0 (12 KO)

Full name Dmitry Yuryevich Bivol

Age 35 · Rank #9 · Confidence High 0.791

Stance Orthodox · H/R 183cm / 183cm · RU

The Ring Light heavyweight WBA Light heavyweight IBF Light heavyweight WBO Light heavyweight

Canelo Álvarez

Score 81.06 · 63-3-2 (39 KO)

Full name Santos Saúl Álvarez Barragán

Age 35 · Rank #11 · Confidence High 0.774

Stance Orthodox · H/R 171cm / 179cm · MX

Dmitry Bivol

Full name: Dmitry Yuryevich Bivol
Age: 35
Fighter rank: #9
Current model score: 79.81
Fighter confidence: High 0.791
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 183cm / 183cm
Nationality: RU
Career snapshot: 25-1-0 (12 KO)

World titles

The Ring Light heavyweight WBA Light heavyweight IBF Light heavyweight WBO Light heavyweight

07 May 2022

Confirmed Result

Result

Bivol

Historical result

100% Bivol

0% Álvarez

Fight result: Dmitry Bivol (U D)
Historical lean: Dmitry Bivol 64.24%
Prediction result: Correct
Historical win probability: 64.24%
Closing odds: 5.5
Closing implied: 18.18%
Expected ROI (1u): 253.31%
Value edge: 46.06%
Lean assessment: Value

Closing odds captured 2026-03-23 16:23:07 UTC

Canelo Álvarez

Full name: Santos Saúl Álvarez Barragán
Age: 35
Fighter rank: #11
Current model score: 81.06
Fighter confidence: High 0.774
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 171cm / 179cm
Nationality: MX
Career snapshot: 63-3-2 (39 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

76.0 Bivol Confidence Medium 0.740

83.7 Álvarez Confidence High 0.840

Punching Accuracy

87.0 Bivol Confidence High 0.840

88.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.850

Hand Speed

85.0 Bivol Confidence High 0.810

84.8 Álvarez Confidence High 0.770

Pace Pressure

78.0 Bivol Confidence Medium 0.730

76.2 Álvarez Confidence High 0.780

Defensive Skill

90.0 Bivol Confidence High 0.860

88.4 Álvarez Confidence High 0.860

Distance Footwork Control

92.0 Bivol Confidence High 0.880

85.2 Álvarez Confidence High 0.790

Ring Iq Adaptability

91.0 Bivol Confidence High 0.860

88.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.880

Counter Punching

86.0 Bivol Confidence High 0.800

88.6 Álvarez Confidence High 0.880

Chin

84.0 Bivol Confidence Medium 0.690

88.4 Álvarez Confidence High 0.830

Cardio Engine

89.0 Bivol Confidence High 0.840

76.9 Álvarez Confidence High 0.760

Style Profile Bivol: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher vs Álvarez: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

8.0 Bivol Confidence Medium 0.730

14.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.630

Out Boxer

45.0 Bivol Confidence High 0.890

11.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.550

Power Slugger

7.0 Bivol Confidence High 0.840

20.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.730

Boxer Puncher

30.0 Bivol Confidence High 0.860

37.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.830

Counter Puncher

10.0 Bivol Confidence Medium 0.710

18.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.680

Stance Interaction Bivol vs orthodox · Álvarez vs orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

42.0 Bivol Confidence Medium 0.680

58.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.750

Vs Southpaw

58.0 Bivol Confidence Medium 0.680

42.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.750

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Bivol

66.67 Álvarez

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Bivol

0 Álvarez

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Bivol

66.67 Álvarez

Opponent Rating Last 3

77.41 Bivol

71.73 Álvarez

Trend Score Last 5

80 Bivol

80 Álvarez

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

83.33 Bivol

80.26 Álvarez

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

26.09 Bivol

30 Álvarez

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Bivol

66.67 Álvarez

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

77.41 Bivol

71.73 Álvarez

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

90 Bivol

80 Álvarez

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Bivol stays in class.

Álvarez moves up 1 class.

Interaction: low advantage Bivol.

Advantage: Bivol

Height Reach Delta

Bivol height: 183.0cm reach: 183.0cm

Álvarez height: 171.0cm reach: 179.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Bivol.

Advantage: Bivol +16.0cm

Stance Interaction

Bivol vs orthodox: 42.0

Álvarez vs orthodox: 58.0

Interaction: low advantage Álvarez.

Advantage: Álvarez

Style Interaction

Bivol style: Out Boxer

Álvarez style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral