Shakur Stevenson vs Josh Padley

Data as of: 2026-06-09 21:06:10 UTC Historical result As-of 2025-02-22

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Stevenson vs Padley 22 Feb 2025 Result: Stevenson Historical result Pick 79.19% Prediction: Correct Lightweight Tap to expand Analysis

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Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Ash-Shakur Stevenson (TKO)

Historical lean Shakur Stevenson 79.19%

Prediction result Correct

Stevenson odds 1.0250

Padley odds 17.0000

Stevenson implied 97.56%

Padley implied 5.88%

Closing odds 1.025

Closing implied 97.56%

Expected return 0.8117

ROI -18.83%

Edge -18.37%

Lean No Value

Bout Historical result

Closing odds captured 2026-04-10 12:56:08 UTC

Fighter details

Shakur Stevenson

Score 83.59 · 25-0-0 (11 KO)

Full name Ash-Shakur Nafi-Shahid Stevenson

Age 28 · Rank #3 · Confidence High 0.826

Stance Southpaw · H/R 173cm / 173cm · US

The Ring Super lightweight WBO Super lightweight

Josh Padley

Score 61.32 · 18-1-0 (6 KO)

Full name Josh Padley

Age 30 · Rank #294 · Confidence Medium 0.555

Stance Orthodox · H/R 170cm / N/A · GB

Shakur Stevenson

Full name: Ash-Shakur Nafi-Shahid Stevenson
Age: 28
Fighter rank: #3
Current model score: 83.59
Fighter confidence: High 0.826
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 173cm / 173cm
Nationality: US
Career snapshot: 25-0-0 (11 KO)

World titles

The Ring Super lightweight WBO Super lightweight

22 Feb 2025

Confirmed Result

Result

Stevenson

Historical result

100% Stevenson

0% Padley

Fight result: Ash-Shakur Stevenson (TKO)
Historical lean: Shakur Stevenson 79.19%
Prediction result: Correct
Historical win probability: 79.19%
Closing odds: 1.025
Closing implied: 97.56%
Expected ROI (1u): -18.83%
Value edge: -18.37%
Lean assessment: No Value

Closing odds captured 2026-04-10 12:56:08 UTC

Josh Padley

Full name: Josh Padley
Age: 30
Fighter rank: #294
Current model score: 61.32
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.555
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 170cm / N/A
Nationality: GB
Career snapshot: 18-1-0 (6 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

84.5 Stevenson Confidence High 0.800

59.0 Padley Confidence Medium 0.630

Punching Accuracy

90.3 Stevenson Confidence High 0.900

68.0 Padley Confidence Medium 0.560

Hand Speed

92.1 Stevenson Confidence High 0.860

66.0 Padley Confidence Medium 0.500

Pace Pressure

86.3 Stevenson Confidence Medium 0.730

69.0 Padley Confidence Medium 0.580

Defensive Skill

92.3 Stevenson Confidence High 0.920

67.0 Padley Confidence Medium 0.570

Distance Footwork Control

90.9 Stevenson Confidence High 0.890

70.0 Padley Confidence Medium 0.600

Ring Iq Adaptability

87.9 Stevenson Confidence High 0.900

73.0 Padley Confidence Medium 0.640

Counter Punching

92.1 Stevenson Confidence High 0.870

65.0 Padley Confidence Low 0.470

Chin

93.0 Stevenson Confidence Medium 0.640

64.0 Padley Confidence Medium 0.500

Cardio Engine

87.9 Stevenson Confidence High 0.820

72.0 Padley Confidence Medium 0.630

Style Profile Stevenson: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher vs Padley: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

5.0 Stevenson Confidence High 0.840

16.0 Padley Confidence Low 0.420

Out Boxer

50.0 Stevenson Confidence High 0.940

34.0 Padley Confidence Medium 0.600

Power Slugger

6.0 Stevenson Confidence High 0.890

8.0 Padley Confidence Medium 0.720

Boxer Puncher

20.0 Stevenson Confidence High 0.870

30.0 Padley Confidence Medium 0.580

Counter Puncher

19.0 Stevenson Confidence High 0.790

12.0 Padley Confidence Low 0.280

Stance Interaction Stevenson vs orthodox · Padley vs southpaw Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

58.0 Stevenson Confidence Medium 0.690

42.0 Padley Confidence Medium 0.580

Vs Southpaw

42.0 Stevenson Confidence Medium 0.690

58.0 Padley Confidence Medium 0.580

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Stevenson

100 Padley

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Stevenson

66.67 Padley

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Stevenson

66.67 Padley

Opponent Rating Last 3

72.89 Stevenson

49.67 Padley

Trend Score Last 5

100 Stevenson

85 Padley

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Stevenson

100 Padley

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

39.39 Stevenson

66.67 Padley

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Stevenson

66.67 Padley

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

72.89 Stevenson

50.73 Padley

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Stevenson

92.5 Padley

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Stevenson moves down 1 class.

Padley moves up 1 class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Stevenson height: 173.0cm reach: 173.0cm

Padley height: 170.0cm reach: N/A

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Stance Interaction

Stevenson vs orthodox: 58.0

Padley vs southpaw: 58.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Stevenson style: Out Boxer

Padley style: Out Boxer

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral