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López vs Jr. 02 May 2025 Result: Rivera Historical result Pick 66.72% Prediction: Incorrect Super lightweight Tap to expand Analysis
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Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Teófimo Rivera (U D)

Historical lean Arnold Barboza 66.72%

Prediction result Incorrect

López odds 1.4000

Jr. odds 3.1000

López implied 71.43%

Jr. implied 32.26%

Closing odds 3.1

Closing implied 32.26%

Expected return 2.0682

ROI 106.82%

Edge 34.46%

Lean Value

Bout Historical result

Closing odds captured 2026-04-10 12:55:32 UTC

Fighter details
Teófimo López
Teófimo López

Score 73.37 · 22-2-0 (13 KO)

Full name Teófimo Andrés López Rivera

Age 28 · Rank #58 · Confidence Medium 0.695

Stance Orthodox · H/R 173cm / 174cm · US

AJ
Arnold Barboza Jr.

Score 76.16 · 33-1-0 (11 KO)

Full name Arnold Barboza Jr.

Age 34 · Rank #35 · Confidence Medium 0.666

Stance Orthodox · H/R 175cm / 183cm · US

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

84.5 López Confidence High 0.790

54.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.720

Punching Accuracy

87.1 López Confidence Medium 0.690

83.4 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.670

Hand Speed

92.1 López Confidence High 0.760

81.2 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.610

Pace Pressure

54.8 López Confidence Medium 0.710

76.3 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.660

Defensive Skill

85.8 López Confidence Medium 0.680

90.8 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.710

Distance Footwork Control

81.1 López Confidence Medium 0.660

89.2 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.720

Ring Iq Adaptability

74.5 López Confidence Medium 0.670

91.9 Jr. Confidence High 0.760

Counter Punching

92.1 López Confidence High 0.750

88.6 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.630

Chin

86.0 López Confidence Medium 0.640

90.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.640

Cardio Engine

67.3 López Confidence Medium 0.670

93.0 Jr. Confidence High 0.780

Style Profile López: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer  vs  Jr.: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

8.0 López Confidence Medium 0.540

8.0 Jr. Confidence Low 0.460

Out Boxer

22.0 López Confidence Medium 0.710

42.0 Jr. Confidence High 0.760

Power Slugger

18.0 López Confidence Medium 0.720

6.0 Jr. Confidence High 0.820

Boxer Puncher

37.0 López Confidence High 0.800

31.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.680

Counter Puncher

15.0 López Confidence Medium 0.640

13.0 Jr. Confidence Low 0.450

Stance Interaction López vs orthodox  ·  Jr. vs orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

42.0 López Confidence Medium 0.690

42.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.630

Vs Southpaw

58.0 López Confidence Medium 0.690

58.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.630

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 López

66.67 Jr.

Ko Rate Last 3

0 López

0 Jr.

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 López

66.67 Jr.

Opponent Rating Last 3

74.67 López

70.87 Jr.

Trend Score Last 5

80 López

80 Jr.

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

80.95 López

83.33 Jr.

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

30.95 López

17.74 Jr.

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 López

66.67 Jr.

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

74.67 López

70.87 Jr.

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

80 López

90 Jr.

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

López stays in class.

Jr. stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

López height: 173.0cm reach: 174.0cm

Jr. height: 175.0cm reach: 183.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Jr..

Advantage: Jr. +11.0cm

Stance Interaction

López vs orthodox: 42.0

Jr. vs orthodox: 42.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

López style: Boxer Puncher

Jr. style: Out Boxer

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Model: FiteQuant

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