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Álvarez vs Escobedo 04 May 2024 Result: Barragán Historical result Pick 52.62% Prediction: Incorrect Super middleweight Tap to expand Analysis
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Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Santos Barragán (U D)

Historical lean Jaime Escobedo 52.62%

Prediction result Incorrect

Álvarez odds 1.2857

Escobedo odds 4.6000

Álvarez implied 77.78%

Escobedo implied 21.74%

Closing odds 4.6

Closing implied 21.74%

Expected return 2.4206

ROI 142.06%

Edge 30.88%

Lean Value

Bout Historical result

Closing odds captured 2026-03-23 16:21:10 UTC

Fighter details
Canelo Álvarez
Canelo Álvarez

Score 79.57 · 63-3-2 (39 KO)

Full name Santos Saúl Álvarez Barragán

Age 35 · Rank #11 · Confidence High 0.774

Stance Orthodox · H/R 171cm / 179cm · MX

Jaime Escobedo
Jaime Escobedo

Score 66.52 · 47-2-0 (35 KO)

Full name Jaime Aarón Munguía Escobedo

Age 29 · Rank #193 · Confidence Medium 0.674

Stance Orthodox · H/R 183cm / 183cm · MX

WBA Super middleweight WBC Super middleweight

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

83.7 Álvarez Confidence High 0.840

86.0 Escobedo Confidence High 0.810

Punching Accuracy

88.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.850

73.0 Escobedo Confidence Medium 0.670

Hand Speed

84.8 Álvarez Confidence High 0.770

74.0 Escobedo Confidence Medium 0.630

Pace Pressure

76.2 Álvarez Confidence High 0.780

84.0 Escobedo Confidence High 0.780

Defensive Skill

88.4 Álvarez Confidence High 0.860

61.0 Escobedo Confidence Medium 0.720

Distance Footwork Control

85.2 Álvarez Confidence High 0.790

66.0 Escobedo Confidence Medium 0.640

Ring Iq Adaptability

88.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.880

68.0 Escobedo Confidence Medium 0.660

Counter Punching

88.6 Álvarez Confidence High 0.880

64.0 Escobedo Confidence Medium 0.580

Chin

88.4 Álvarez Confidence High 0.830

62.0 Escobedo Confidence Medium 0.740

Cardio Engine

76.9 Álvarez Confidence High 0.760

79.0 Escobedo Confidence Medium 0.730

Style Profile Álvarez: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger  vs  Escobedo: Pressure Swarmer Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

14.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.630

34.0 Escobedo Confidence Medium 0.730

Out Boxer

11.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.550

9.0 Escobedo Confidence Medium 0.560

Power Slugger

20.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.730

24.0 Escobedo Confidence Medium 0.740

Boxer Puncher

37.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.830

28.0 Escobedo Confidence Medium 0.690

Counter Puncher

18.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.680

5.0 Escobedo Confidence Low 0.430

Stance Interaction Álvarez vs orthodox  ·  Escobedo vs orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

58.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.750

68.0 Escobedo Confidence Medium 0.670

Vs Southpaw

42.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.750

32.0 Escobedo Confidence Medium 0.670

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Álvarez

66.67 Escobedo

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Álvarez

0 Escobedo

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Álvarez

66.67 Escobedo

Opponent Rating Last 3

71.73 Álvarez

73.62 Escobedo

Trend Score Last 5

80 Álvarez

70 Escobedo

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

80.26 Álvarez

82.22 Escobedo

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

30 Álvarez

38.89 Escobedo

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Álvarez

66.67 Escobedo

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

71.73 Álvarez

73.62 Escobedo

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

80 Álvarez

85 Escobedo

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Álvarez stays in class.

Escobedo stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Álvarez height: 171.0cm reach: 179.0cm

Escobedo height: 183.0cm reach: 183.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Escobedo.

Advantage: Escobedo +16.0cm

Stance Interaction

Álvarez vs orthodox: 58.0

Escobedo vs orthodox: 68.0

Interaction: low advantage Escobedo.

Advantage: Escobedo

Style Interaction

Álvarez style: Boxer Puncher

Escobedo style: Pressure Swarmer

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Model: FiteQuant

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