Erislandy Lara vs Brian Castaño

Data as of: 2026-06-09 21:06:10 UTC Custom

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using inferred fighter weight class for this comparison. Change this if needed.

Lara vs Castaño 02 Mar 2019 Model lean: Lara Custom 82.86% ROI: 36.32% Middleweight Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using inferred fighter weight class for this comparison. Change this if needed.

Bout details

Model lean Erislandy Lara 82.86%

Lara odds 1.6452

Castaño odds 2.5500

Lara implied 60.78%

Castaño implied 39.22%

Market odds 1.6452

Implied probability 60.78%

Expected return 1.3632

ROI 36.32%

Edge 22.08%

Lean Value

Bout Custom

Odds updated 2026-04-10 13:08:26 UTC

Fighter details

Erislandy Lara

Score 79.60 · 32-3-3 (19 KO)

Full name Erislandy Lara Santoya

Age 43 · Rank #10 · Confidence High 0.769

Stance Southpaw · H/R 175cm / 192cm · US

WBA Middleweight

Brian Castaño

Score 68.35 · 17-1-2 (12 KO)

Full name Brian Carlos Castaño

Age 36 · Rank #130 · Confidence Medium 0.659

Stance Orthodox · H/R 169cm / 173cm · AR

Erislandy Lara

Full name: Erislandy Lara Santoya
Age: 43
Fighter rank: #10
Current model score: 79.60
Fighter confidence: High 0.769
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 175cm / 192cm
Nationality: US
Career snapshot: 32-3-3 (19 KO)

World titles

WBA Middleweight

02 Mar 2019

Projected Win Split

Model lean

Lara

Custom

83% Lara

17% Castaño

Model lean: Erislandy Lara 82.86%
Win probability: 82.86%
Market odds: 1.6452
Implied probability: 60.78%
Expected ROI (1u): 36.32%
Value edge: 22.08%
Lean assessment: Value

Odds updated 2026-04-10 13:08:26 UTC

Brian Castaño

Full name: Brian Carlos Castaño
Age: 36
Fighter rank: #130
Current model score: 68.35
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.659
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 169cm / 173cm
Nationality: AR
Career snapshot: 17-1-2 (12 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

78.9 Lara Confidence High 0.770

66.8 Castaño Confidence Medium 0.730

Punching Accuracy

93.6 Lara Confidence High 0.790

78.6 Castaño Confidence Medium 0.680

Hand Speed

80.5 Lara Confidence Medium 0.690

77.9 Castaño Confidence Medium 0.640

Pace Pressure

50.5 Lara Confidence Medium 0.720

89.5 Castaño Confidence High 0.820

Defensive Skill

95.6 Lara Confidence High 0.810

75.9 Castaño Confidence Medium 0.660

Distance Footwork Control

94.3 Lara Confidence High 0.800

70.6 Castaño Confidence Medium 0.610

Ring Iq Adaptability

93.5 Lara Confidence High 0.820

78.6 Castaño Confidence Medium 0.720

Counter Punching

95.4 Lara Confidence High 0.800

71.0 Castaño Confidence Medium 0.560

Chin

85.2 Lara Confidence Medium 0.630

78.6 Castaño Confidence Medium 0.650

Cardio Engine

84.4 Lara Confidence Medium 0.740

87.9 Castaño Confidence High 0.800

Style Profile Lara: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher vs Castaño: Pressure Swarmer Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

5.0 Lara Confidence High 0.780

41.0 Castaño Confidence Medium 0.670

Out Boxer

42.0 Lara Confidence High 0.900

7.0 Castaño Confidence Medium 0.560

Power Slugger

8.0 Lara Confidence High 0.770

18.0 Castaño Confidence Medium 0.620

Boxer Puncher

28.0 Lara Confidence High 0.840

25.0 Castaño Confidence Medium 0.640

Counter Puncher

17.0 Lara Confidence Medium 0.730

9.0 Castaño Confidence Low 0.480

Stance Interaction Lara vs orthodox · Castaño vs southpaw Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

62.0 Lara Confidence Medium 0.740

42.0 Castaño Confidence Medium 0.680

Vs Southpaw

38.0 Lara Confidence Medium 0.740

58.0 Castaño Confidence Medium 0.680

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Lara

33.33 Castaño

Ko Rate Last 3

66.67 Lara

0 Castaño

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Lara

0 Castaño

Opponent Rating Last 3

56.33 Lara

78.4 Castaño

Trend Score Last 5

100 Lara

60 Castaño

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Lara

63.73 Castaño

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

66.67 Lara

35.29 Castaño

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Lara

0 Castaño

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

56.33 Lara

78.4 Castaño

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Lara

80 Castaño

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Lara stays in class.

Castaño moves up 1 class.

Interaction: low advantage Lara.

Advantage: Lara

Height Reach Delta

Lara height: 175.0cm reach: 192.0cm

Castaño height: 169.0cm reach: 173.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Lara.

Advantage: Lara +25.0cm

Stance Interaction

Lara vs orthodox: 62.0

Castaño vs southpaw: 58.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Lara style: Out Boxer

Castaño style: Pressure Swarmer

Interaction: medium advantage Castaño.

Advantage: Castaño