Josh Kelly vs Bakhram Murtazaliev

Data as of: 2026-06-09 21:06:10 UTC Historical result As-of 2026-01-31

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Kelly vs Murtazaliev 31 Jan 2026 Result: Kelly Historical result Pick 53.24% Prediction: Correct Middleweight Tap to expand Analysis

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Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Joshua Kelly (M D)

Historical lean Josh Kelly 53.24%

Prediction result Correct

Kelly odds 3.5000

Murtazaliev odds 1.4000

Kelly implied 28.57%

Murtazaliev implied 71.43%

Closing odds 3.5

Closing implied 28.57%

Expected return 1.8632

ROI 86.32%

Edge 24.66%

Lean Value

Bout Historical result

Closing odds captured 2026-04-10 12:53:16 UTC

Fighter details

Josh Kelly

Score 75.39 · 18-1-1 (9 KO)

Full name Joshua Kelly

Age 32 · Rank #31 · Confidence Medium 0.667

Stance Orthodox · H/R 178cm / 183cm · GB

IBF Super welterweight

Bakhram Murtazaliev

Score 67.23 · 23-1-0 (17 KO)

Full name Bakhram Sait-Khamzatovich Murtazaliev

Age 33 · Rank #152 · Confidence Medium 0.546

Stance Orthodox · H/R 183cm / 183cm · RU

Josh Kelly

Full name: Joshua Kelly
Age: 32
Fighter rank: #31
Current model score: 75.39
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.667
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 178cm / 183cm
Nationality: GB
Career snapshot: 18-1-1 (9 KO)

World titles

IBF Super welterweight

31 Jan 2026

Confirmed Result

Result

Kelly

Historical result

100% Kelly

0% Murtazaliev

Fight result: Joshua Kelly (M D)
Historical lean: Josh Kelly 53.24%
Prediction result: Correct
Historical win probability: 53.24%
Closing odds: 3.5
Closing implied: 28.57%
Expected ROI (1u): 86.32%
Value edge: 24.66%
Lean assessment: Value

Closing odds captured 2026-04-10 12:53:16 UTC

Bakhram Murtazaliev

Full name: Bakhram Sait-Khamzatovich Murtazaliev
Age: 33
Fighter rank: #152
Current model score: 67.23
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.546
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 183cm / 183cm
Nationality: RU
Career snapshot: 23-1-0 (17 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

72.3 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.720

84.5 Murtazaliev Confidence High 0.800

Punching Accuracy

90.3 Kelly Confidence High 0.770

80.1 Murtazaliev Confidence Medium 0.620

Hand Speed

92.1 Kelly Confidence High 0.790

73.4 Murtazaliev Confidence Medium 0.500

Pace Pressure

65.5 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.630

72.7 Murtazaliev Confidence Medium 0.580

Defensive Skill

85.1 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.690

73.5 Murtazaliev Confidence Medium 0.520

Distance Footwork Control

90.9 Kelly Confidence High 0.770

69.7 Murtazaliev Confidence Medium 0.500

Ring Iq Adaptability

85.8 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.720

79.5 Murtazaliev Confidence Medium 0.640

Counter Punching

92.1 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.730

75.9 Murtazaliev Confidence Low 0.470

Chin

71.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.580

71.2 Murtazaliev Confidence Low 0.460

Cardio Engine

85.8 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.720

72.4 Murtazaliev Confidence Medium 0.610

Style Profile Kelly: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher vs Murtazaliev: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

8.0 Kelly Confidence Low 0.450

14.0 Murtazaliev Confidence Low 0.450

Out Boxer

34.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.730

12.0 Murtazaliev Confidence Low 0.460

Power Slugger

12.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.580

31.0 Murtazaliev Confidence Medium 0.680

Boxer Puncher

30.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.720

35.0 Murtazaliev Confidence Medium 0.720

Counter Puncher

16.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.500

8.0 Murtazaliev Confidence Low 0.280

Stance Interaction Kelly vs orthodox · Murtazaliev vs orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

58.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.620

68.0 Murtazaliev Confidence Medium 0.660

Vs Southpaw

42.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.620

32.0 Murtazaliev Confidence Low 0.340

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Kelly

66.67 Murtazaliev

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Kelly

66.67 Murtazaliev

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Kelly

33.33 Murtazaliev

Opponent Rating Last 3

58.77 Kelly

69.36 Murtazaliev

Trend Score Last 5

100 Kelly

80 Murtazaliev

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Kelly

83.33 Murtazaliev

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

40.2 Kelly

69.05 Murtazaliev

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Kelly

33.33 Murtazaliev

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

58.77 Kelly

69.36 Murtazaliev

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Kelly

90 Murtazaliev

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Kelly moves up 1 class.

Murtazaliev moves up 1 class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Kelly height: 178.0cm reach: 183.0cm

Murtazaliev height: 183.0cm reach: 183.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Murtazaliev.

Advantage: Murtazaliev +5.0cm

Stance Interaction

Kelly vs orthodox: 58.0

Murtazaliev vs orthodox: 68.0

Interaction: low advantage Murtazaliev.

Advantage: Murtazaliev

Style Interaction

Kelly style: Out Boxer

Murtazaliev style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral