Subriel Matías vs Dalton Smith

Data as of: 2026-06-09 21:06:10 UTC Historical result As-of 2026-01-10

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Matías vs Smith 10 Jan 2026 Result: Smith Historical result Pick 54.46% Prediction: Correct Lightweight Tap to expand Analysis

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Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Dalton Smith (TKO)

Historical lean Dalton Smith 54.46%

Prediction result Correct

Matías odds 1.6667

Smith odds 2.5000

Matías implied 60.00%

Smith implied 40.00%

Closing odds 2.5

Closing implied 40.00%

Expected return 1.3615

ROI 36.15%

Edge 14.46%

Lean Value

Bout Historical result

Closing odds captured 2026-04-10 12:53:27 UTC

Fighter details

Subriel Matías

Score 68.11 · 23-3-0 (22 KO)

Full name Subriel Ahmed Matías Matthew

Age 34 · Rank #146 · Confidence Medium 0.671

Stance Orthodox · H/R 175cm / 180cm · PR

Dalton Smith

Score 71.89 · 19-0-0 (14 KO)

Full name Dalton Smith

Age 29 · Rank #65 · Confidence Medium 0.582

Stance Orthodox · H/R 177cm / 177cm · GB

WBC Super lightweight

Subriel Matías

Full name: Subriel Ahmed Matías Matthew
Age: 34
Fighter rank: #146
Current model score: 68.11
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.671
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 175cm / 180cm
Nationality: PR
Career snapshot: 23-3-0 (22 KO)

10 Jan 2026

Confirmed Result

Result

Smith

Historical result

0% Matías

100% Smith

Fight result: Dalton Smith (TKO)
Historical lean: Dalton Smith 54.46%
Prediction result: Correct
Historical win probability: 54.46%
Closing odds: 2.5
Closing implied: 40.00%
Expected ROI (1u): 36.15%
Value edge: 14.46%
Lean assessment: Value

Closing odds captured 2026-04-10 12:53:27 UTC

Dalton Smith

Full name: Dalton Smith
Age: 29
Fighter rank: #65
Current model score: 71.89
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.582
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 177cm / 177cm
Nationality: GB
Career snapshot: 19-0-0 (14 KO)

World titles

WBC Super lightweight

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

84.5 Matías Confidence High 0.920

75.2 Smith Confidence High 0.830

Punching Accuracy

75.0 Matías Confidence Medium 0.630

84.6 Smith Confidence Medium 0.640

Hand Speed

73.8 Matías Confidence Medium 0.570

83.1 Smith Confidence Medium 0.560

Pace Pressure

89.5 Matías Confidence High 0.880

83.7 Smith Confidence Medium 0.620

Defensive Skill

64.7 Matías Confidence Medium 0.660

80.9 Smith Confidence Medium 0.500

Distance Footwork Control

64.6 Matías Confidence Medium 0.610

79.9 Smith Confidence Medium 0.520

Ring Iq Adaptability

66.2 Matías Confidence Medium 0.600

81.7 Smith Confidence Medium 0.680

Counter Punching

69.2 Matías Confidence Medium 0.500

79.4 Smith Confidence Low 0.460

Chin

77.2 Matías Confidence Medium 0.580

75.2 Smith Confidence Low 0.410

Cardio Engine

86.0 Matías Confidence High 0.750

79.4 Smith Confidence Medium 0.690

Style Profile Matías: Pressure Swarmer Power Slugger vs Smith: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

42.0 Matías Confidence High 0.770

12.0 Smith Confidence Low 0.420

Out Boxer

4.0 Matías Confidence Medium 0.630

16.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.580

Power Slugger

31.0 Matías Confidence High 0.840

20.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.630

Boxer Puncher

18.0 Matías Confidence Medium 0.660

40.0 Smith Confidence High 0.760

Counter Puncher

5.0 Matías Confidence Medium 0.550

12.0 Smith Confidence Low 0.330

Stance Interaction Matías vs orthodox · Smith vs orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

42.0 Matías Confidence Medium 0.630

42.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.630

Vs Southpaw

58.0 Matías Confidence Medium 0.630

58.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.630

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Matías

100 Smith

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Matías

66.67 Smith

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Matías

66.67 Smith

Opponent Rating Last 3

67.19 Matías

66.41 Smith

Trend Score Last 5

60 Matías

100 Smith

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

78.99 Matías

100 Smith

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

62.32 Matías

70.83 Smith

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Matías

66.67 Smith

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

67.19 Matías

66.41 Smith

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

80 Matías

100 Smith

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Matías moves down 1 class.

Smith moves down 1 class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Matías height: 175.0cm reach: 180.0cm

Smith height: 177.0cm reach: 177.0cm

Interaction: low advantage Matías.

Advantage: Matías +1.0cm

Stance Interaction

Matías vs orthodox: 42.0

Smith vs orthodox: 42.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Matías style: Pressure Swarmer

Smith style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral