Tevin Farmer vs Kenichi Ogawa

Data as of: 2026-06-09 21:06:10 UTC Custom

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using inferred fighter weight class for this comparison. Change this if needed.

Farmer vs Ogawa 09 Dec 2017 Model lean: Ogawa Custom 62.25% ROI: 335.77% Lightweight Tap to expand Analysis

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Matchup weight class

Using inferred fighter weight class for this comparison. Change this if needed.

Bout details

Model lean Kenichi Ogawa 62.25%

Farmer odds 1.1429

Ogawa odds 7.0000

Farmer implied 87.50%

Ogawa implied 14.29%

Market odds 7

Implied probability 14.29%

Expected return 4.3577

ROI 335.77%

Edge 47.97%

Lean Value

Bout Custom

Odds updated 2026-04-10 13:11:12 UTC

Fighter details

Tevin Farmer

Score 58.66 · 33-9-1 (8 KO)

Full name Tevin Farmer

Age 35 · Rank #391 · Confidence Medium 0.714

Stance Southpaw · H/R 168cm / 170cm · US

Kenichi Ogawa

Score 63.01 · 31-2-1 (22 KO)

Full name Kenichi Ogawa

Age 38 · Rank #247 · Confidence Medium 0.569

Stance Orthodox · H/R 173cm / 173cm · JP

Tevin Farmer

Full name: Tevin Farmer
Age: 35
Fighter rank: #391
Current model score: 58.66
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.714
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 168cm / 170cm
Nationality: US
Career snapshot: 33-9-1 (8 KO)

09 Dec 2017

Projected Win Split

Model lean

Ogawa

Custom

38% Farmer

62% Ogawa

Model lean: Kenichi Ogawa 62.25%
Win probability: 62.25%
Market odds: 7
Implied probability: 14.29%
Expected ROI (1u): 335.77%
Value edge: 47.97%
Lean assessment: Value

Odds updated 2026-04-10 13:11:12 UTC

Kenichi Ogawa

Full name: Kenichi Ogawa
Age: 38
Fighter rank: #247
Current model score: 63.01
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.569
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 173cm / 173cm
Nationality: JP
Career snapshot: 31-2-1 (22 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

41.0 Farmer Confidence High 0.780

89.1 Ogawa Confidence High 0.780

Punching Accuracy

71.1 Farmer Confidence Medium 0.720

70.0 Ogawa Confidence Medium 0.550

Hand Speed

83.3 Farmer Confidence High 0.800

64.6 Ogawa Confidence Low 0.420

Pace Pressure

41.6 Farmer Confidence Medium 0.620

77.4 Ogawa Confidence Medium 0.600

Defensive Skill

81.6 Farmer Confidence High 0.760

65.8 Ogawa Confidence Medium 0.580

Distance Footwork Control

79.7 Farmer Confidence Medium 0.740

67.0 Ogawa Confidence Medium 0.500

Ring Iq Adaptability

67.8 Farmer Confidence Medium 0.690

68.0 Ogawa Confidence Medium 0.570

Counter Punching

80.2 Farmer Confidence Medium 0.710

65.8 Ogawa Confidence Low 0.400

Chin

42.5 Farmer Confidence Medium 0.670

64.7 Ogawa Confidence Medium 0.700

Cardio Engine

61.5 Farmer Confidence Medium 0.700

65.9 Ogawa Confidence Medium 0.620

Style Profile Farmer: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher vs Ogawa: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

8.0 Farmer Confidence Medium 0.580

20.0 Ogawa Confidence Medium 0.520

Out Boxer

52.0 Farmer Confidence High 0.870

14.0 Ogawa Confidence Medium 0.560

Power Slugger

4.0 Farmer Confidence High 0.900

28.0 Ogawa Confidence Medium 0.720

Boxer Puncher

22.0 Farmer Confidence Medium 0.660

30.0 Ogawa Confidence Medium 0.680

Counter Puncher

14.0 Farmer Confidence Medium 0.550

8.0 Ogawa Confidence Low 0.330

Stance Interaction Farmer vs orthodox · Ogawa vs southpaw Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

63.0 Farmer Confidence Medium 0.690

42.0 Ogawa Confidence Medium 0.570

Vs Southpaw

37.0 Farmer Confidence Medium 0.690

58.0 Ogawa Confidence Medium 0.570

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

0 Farmer

100 Ogawa

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Farmer

100 Ogawa

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Farmer

66.67 Ogawa

Opponent Rating Last 3

81.25 Farmer

44 Ogawa

Trend Score Last 5

20 Farmer

100 Ogawa

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

41.25 Farmer

100 Ogawa

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

10 Farmer

100 Ogawa

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Farmer

66.67 Ogawa

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

81.25 Farmer

46.05 Ogawa

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

50 Farmer

100 Ogawa

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Farmer stays in class.

Ogawa moves up 1 class.

Interaction: low advantage Farmer.

Advantage: Farmer

Height Reach Delta

Farmer height: 168.0cm reach: 170.0cm

Ogawa height: 173.0cm reach: 173.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Ogawa.

Advantage: Ogawa +8.0cm

Stance Interaction

Farmer vs orthodox: 63.0

Ogawa vs southpaw: 58.0

Interaction: low advantage Farmer.

Advantage: Farmer

Style Interaction

Farmer style: Out Boxer

Ogawa style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral