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Results

Data as of: 2026-08-09 17:19:31 UTC

Results only confirm and affect headline metrics when winner + closing odds available.

Model-derived value vs market odds. Limited sample size.

Recent Results

Methodology Page 1 of 15 · 143 rows
Result filters Expand

Rafael Espinoza vs Lorenzo Parra · WINNER: Rafael Espinoza · CORRECT

Featherweight · 31 Oct 2026 · 1.1538 / 5 · NO VALUE · Pick Rafael Espinoza 61%

Last model prediction time: 2026-10-14 09:33:48 UTC

David Picasso vs Carl Jammes Martin · WINNER: Carl Jammes Martin · INCORRECT

Featherweight · 31 Oct 2026 · 1.1429 / 5.1 · NO VALUE · Pick David Picasso 65%

Last model prediction time: 2026-10-29 08:45:33 UTC

Canelo Álvarez vs Christian Assomo-Hallier · WINNER: Canelo Álvarez · CORRECT

Super middleweight · 31 Oct 2026 · 1.2857 / 3.5 · NO VALUE · Pick Canelo Álvarez 58%

Last model prediction time: 2026-10-04 07:35:57 UTC

Shogo Tanaka vs Sho Nogami · WINNER: Shogo Tanaka · INCORRECT

Flyweight · 29 Oct 2026 · 2.08 / 1.7042 · VALUE · Pick Sho Nogami 75%

Last model prediction time: 2026-10-22 12:47:05 UTC

O'Shaquie Foster vs Emanuel Navarrete · WINNER: O'Shaquie Foster · INCORRECT

Super featherweight · 24 Oct 2026 · 1.4878 / 2.58 · VALUE · Pick Emanuel Navarrete 52%

Last model prediction time: 2026-09-28 08:11:48 UTC

Edward Vazquez vs Albert Gonzalez · WINNER: Albert Gonzalez · CORRECT

Featherweight · 24 Oct 2026 · 5.7 / 1.1333 · NO VALUE · Pick Albert Gonzalez 56%

Last model prediction time: 2026-09-28 08:16:00 UTC

Tarik Zaina vs Frank Martin · WINNER: Frank Martin · CORRECT

Super lightweight · 24 Oct 2026 · 8.2 / 1.0556 · NO VALUE · Pick Frank Martin 73%

Last model prediction time: 2026-10-04 07:31:21 UTC

Dalton Smith vs Alberto Puello · WINNER: Dalton Smith · INCORRECT

Super lightweight · 24 Oct 2026 · 1.5 / 2.54 · VALUE · Pick Alberto Puello 53%

Last model prediction time: 2026-09-28 08:07:15 UTC

Emanuel Moreno vs Isaias Navarro · STATUS: Pending · PENDING

Bantamweight · 24 Oct 2026 · 4.3 / 1.1818 · NO VALUE · Pick Isaias Navarro 62%

Last model prediction time: 2026-10-22 12:11:55 UTC

Koen Mazoudier vs Armando Reséndiz · WINNER: Armando Reséndiz · INCORRECT

Super middleweight · 17 Oct 2026 · 5.6 / 1.125 · VALUE · Pick Koen Mazoudier 58%

Last model prediction time: 2026-10-14 07:39:40 UTC

Tracked Prediction Data

Unconfirmed results stay visible for reference; summary metrics use confirmed win/loss strategy bets.

Methodology Page 1 of 8 · 143 rows
Prediction filters Expand

Bets

48

ROI

-0.75%

Profit

-0.3618

Avg Odds

3.5187

Accuracy

43.75%

Win/Loss

132

Avg Diff

24.20%

Tracked

143

Advanced

Advanced Strategy Metrics

Calculated from settled bets selected by the active strategy.

Locked value only · 48 settled bets

Forecast Quality

Brier score

0.272

Log loss

0.740

ECE

18.48%

Brier skill vs prediction odds

-42.12%

Market 0.191 - 48 de-vigged market lines

Forecast Band Rows Avg Forecast Observed Gap
50-60% 27 55.85% 37.04% 18.81%
60-70% 14 65.30% 57.14% 8.16%
70-80% 6 75.27% 33.33% 41.94%
80-90% 1 86.97% 100.00% 13.03%
90-100% 0 N/A N/A N/A

Market And Strategy

Locked value only · 46 closing lines

Average CLV

+5.51%

Median CLV

+7.78%

Beat-close rate

60.87%

Model-implied EV at close

+101.42%

Strategy Comparison

1u flat stake

Value only Active

48 bets

ROI -0.75% · Profit -0.3618 · Accuracy 43.75%

+Diff

48 bets

ROI -0.75% · Profit -0.3618 · Accuracy 43.75%

+5% diff

44 bets

ROI -5.68% · Profit -2.4992 · Accuracy 38.64%

+10% diff

40 bets

ROI -9.00% · Profit -3.6007 · Accuracy 35.00%

60%+ model

86 bets

ROI -4.70% · Profit -4.0414 · Accuracy 77.91%

All leans

132 bets

ROI -1.01% · Profit -1.3284 · Accuracy 71.21%

Dog +diff

36 bets

ROI -14.08% · Profit -5.0700 · Accuracy 30.56%

Prediction bout cards Expand

Rafael Espinoza vs Lorenzo Parra

31 Oct 2026

PASS

Lean

Rafael Espinoza

Verdict

CORRECT

Win %

61.08%

Outcome

NO_BET

Odds

1.1538 / 5

Implied

86.67%

Diff

-25.59%

ROI

-29.53%

Profit

N/A

David Picasso vs Carl Jammes Martin

31 Oct 2026

PASS

Lean

David Picasso

Verdict

INCORRECT

Win %

64.97%

Outcome

NO_BET

Odds

1.1429 / 5.1

Implied

87.50%

Diff

-22.53%

ROI

-25.75%

Profit

N/A

Shogo Tanaka vs Sho Nogami

29 Oct 2026

BET

Lean

Sho Nogami

Verdict

INCORRECT

Win %

75.48%

Outcome

LOSS

Odds

2.08 / 1.7042

Implied

58.68%

Diff

16.80%

ROI

28.63%

Profit

-1.0000

Edward Vazquez vs Albert Gonzalez

24 Oct 2026

PASS

Lean

Albert Gonzalez

Verdict

CORRECT

Win %

56.02%

Outcome

NO_BET

Odds

5.7 / 1.1333

Implied

88.24%

Diff

-32.22%

ROI

-36.51%

Profit

N/A

Tarik Zaina vs Frank Martin

24 Oct 2026

PASS

Lean

Frank Martin

Verdict

CORRECT

Win %

73.31%

Outcome

NO_BET

Odds

8.2 / 1.0556

Implied

94.73%

Diff

-21.42%

ROI

-22.61%

Profit

N/A

Dalton Smith vs Alberto Puello

24 Oct 2026

BET

Lean

Alberto Puello

Verdict

INCORRECT

Win %

53.19%

Outcome

LOSS

Odds

1.5 / 2.54

Implied

39.37%

Diff

13.82%

ROI

35.10%

Profit

-1.0000

Emanuel Moreno vs Isaias Navarro

24 Oct 2026

PASS

Lean

Isaias Navarro

Verdict

PENDING

Win %

61.73%

Outcome

PENDING

Odds

4.3 / 1.1818

Implied

84.62%

Diff

-22.88%

ROI

-27.04%

Profit

N/A

Koen Mazoudier vs Armando Reséndiz

17 Oct 2026

BET

Lean

Koen Mazoudier

Verdict

INCORRECT

Win %

58.48%

Outcome

LOSS

Odds

5.6 / 1.125

Implied

17.86%

Diff

40.62%

ROI

227.47%

Profit

-1.0000

Fabio Wardley vs Daniel Dubois

17 Oct 2026

PASS

Lean

Daniel Dubois

Verdict

CORRECT

Win %

51.33%

Outcome

NO_BET

Odds

5.3 / 1.1538

Implied

86.67%

Diff

-35.34%

ROI

-40.77%

Profit

N/A

Juan González vs Justin Pauldo

17 Oct 2026

BET

Lean

Justin Pauldo

Verdict

CORRECT

Win %

64.52%

Outcome

WIN

Odds

1.8621 / 1.8621

Implied

53.70%

Diff

10.82%

ROI

20.15%

Profit

0.8621

Oscar Collazo vs Ricardo Sandoval

11 Oct 2026

BET

Lean

Ricardo Sandoval

Verdict

PENDING

Win %

61.71%

Outcome

PENDING

Odds

2.12 / 1.6944

Implied

59.02%

Diff

2.69%

ROI

4.56%

Profit

N/A

Conor Wallace vs Benjamin Whittaker

03 Oct 2026

PASS

Lean

Benjamin Whittaker

Verdict

CORRECT

Win %

77.16%

Outcome

NO_BET

Odds

5.6 / 1.1333

Implied

88.24%

Diff

-11.08%

ROI

-12.55%

Profit

N/A

Omari Jones vs Alan Sanchez

02 Oct 2026

BET

Lean

Alan Sanchez

Verdict

INCORRECT

Win %

51.48%

Outcome

LOSS

Odds

1.0333 / 9.9

Implied

10.10%

Diff

41.38%

ROI

409.70%

Profit

-1.0000

Tenshin Nasukawa vs Takuma Inoue

27 Sep 2026

BET

Lean

Tenshin Nasukawa

Verdict

INCORRECT

Win %

72.17%

Outcome

LOSS

Odds

2.82 / 1.3846

Implied

35.46%

Diff

36.71%

ROI

103.51%

Profit

-1.0000

Sam Goodman vs Ryosuke Nishida

27 Sep 2026

PASS

Lean

Ryosuke Nishida

Verdict

INCORRECT

Win %

60.46%

Outcome

NO_BET

Odds

3.8 / 1.2439

Implied

80.39%

Diff

-19.93%

ROI

-24.79%

Profit

N/A

Radivoje Kalajdzic vs Craig Richards

26 Sep 2026

BET

Lean

Craig Richards

Verdict

INCORRECT

Win %

56.18%

Outcome

LOSS

Odds

1.5495 / 2.42

Implied

41.32%

Diff

14.86%

ROI

35.96%

Profit

-1.0000

Louis Greene vs Lee Cutler

26 Sep 2026

PASS

Lean

Lee Cutler

Verdict

CORRECT

Win %

52.92%

Outcome

NO_BET

Odds

2.4 / 1.5263

Implied

65.52%

Diff

-12.60%

ROI

-19.23%

Profit

N/A

Nathan Heaney vs Gerome Warburton

26 Sep 2026

BET

Lean

Nathan Heaney

Verdict

INCORRECT

Win %

67.39%

Outcome

LOSS

Odds

3.2 / 1.3226

Implied

31.25%

Diff

36.14%

ROI

115.66%

Profit

-1.0000

Model: Very high subjective

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