Kaye Scott vs Claressa Shields
16 Aug 2026
Lean
Claressa Shields
Verdict
CORRECT
Win %
57.55%
Outcome
NO_BET
Odds
16 / 1.0286
Implied
97.22%
Diff
-39.67%
ROI
-40.81%
Profit
N/A
Data as of: 2026-08-09 17:19:31 UTC
Results only confirm and affect headline metrics when winner + closing odds available.
Model-derived value vs market odds. Limited sample size.
Kaye Scott vs Claressa Shields · WINNER: Claressa Shields · CORRECT
Middleweight · 16 Aug 2026 · N/A · SCHEDULED 10 · 16 / 1.0286 · NO VALUE · Pick Claressa Shields 58%
Emmanuel Tagoe vs Ernesto Mercado · STATUS: Pending · PENDING
Super lightweight · 16 Aug 2026 · N/A · N/A · 11 / 1.04 · NO VALUE · Pick Ernesto Mercado 72%
Roamer Angulo vs Atif Oberlton · WINNER: Atif Oberlton · CORRECT
Light heavyweight · 15 Aug 2026 · N/A · N/A · 8.3 / 1.05 · NO VALUE · Pick Atif Oberlton 72%
Danielle Perkins vs Olivia Curry · STATUS: Pending · PENDING
Light heavyweight · 15 Aug 2026 · N/A · N/A · 1.1333 / 5.3 · VALUE · Pick Danielle Perkins 89%
Michael Zerafa vs Alejandro Ortiz · WINNER: Michael Zerafa · CORRECT
Middleweight · 12 Aug 2026 · N/A · N/A · 1.0769 / 6.8 · NO VALUE · Pick Michael Zerafa 74%
Sam Hickey vs Brad Axe · WINNER: Sam Hickey · CORRECT
Middleweight · 08 Aug 2026 · N/A · SCHEDULED 8 · 1.0769 / 6.8 · NO VALUE · Pick Sam Hickey 82%
Tyler Denny vs Callum Walsh · WINNER: Callum Walsh · CORRECT
Middleweight · 08 Aug 2026 · N/A · SCHEDULED 10 · 3.9 / 1.2439 · NO VALUE · Pick Callum Walsh 63%
Tammara Thibeault vs Desley Robinson · WINNER: Tammara Thibeault · CORRECT
Middleweight · 08 Aug 2026 · N/A · SCHEDULED 10 · 1.2381 / 3.85 · NO VALUE · Pick Tammara Thibeault 69%
Sean Hemphill vs Gradus Kraus · WINNER: Gradus Kraus · CORRECT
Light heavyweight · 08 Aug 2026 · STOPPAGE (REPORTED) · 10/10 · 6.4 / 1.0909 · NO VALUE · Pick Gradus Kraus 52%
Shurretta Metcalf vs Amanda Galle · WINNER: Amanda Galle · INCORRECT
Super flyweight · 08 Aug 2026 · UD · SCHEDULED 8 · 2.43 / 1.5263 · VALUE · Pick Shurretta Metcalf 69%
Kaye Scott vs Claressa Shields · WINNER: Claressa Shields · CORRECT
Middleweight · 16 Aug 2026 · N/A · SCHEDULED 10 · 16 / 1.0286 · NO VALUE · Pick Claressa Shields 58%
Emmanuel Tagoe vs Ernesto Mercado · STATUS: Pending · PENDING
Super lightweight · 16 Aug 2026 · N/A · N/A · 11 / 1.04 · NO VALUE · Pick Ernesto Mercado 72%
Roamer Angulo vs Atif Oberlton · WINNER: Atif Oberlton · CORRECT
Light heavyweight · 15 Aug 2026 · N/A · N/A · 8.3 / 1.05 · NO VALUE · Pick Atif Oberlton 72%
Danielle Perkins vs Olivia Curry · STATUS: Pending · PENDING
Light heavyweight · 15 Aug 2026 · N/A · N/A · 1.1333 / 5.3 · VALUE · Pick Danielle Perkins 89%
Michael Zerafa vs Alejandro Ortiz · WINNER: Michael Zerafa · CORRECT
Middleweight · 12 Aug 2026 · N/A · N/A · 1.0769 / 6.8 · NO VALUE · Pick Michael Zerafa 74%
Sam Hickey vs Brad Axe · WINNER: Sam Hickey · CORRECT
Middleweight · 08 Aug 2026 · N/A · SCHEDULED 8 · 1.0769 / 6.8 · NO VALUE · Pick Sam Hickey 82%
Tyler Denny vs Callum Walsh · WINNER: Callum Walsh · CORRECT
Middleweight · 08 Aug 2026 · N/A · SCHEDULED 10 · 3.9 / 1.2439 · NO VALUE · Pick Callum Walsh 63%
Tammara Thibeault vs Desley Robinson · WINNER: Tammara Thibeault · CORRECT
Middleweight · 08 Aug 2026 · N/A · SCHEDULED 10 · 1.2381 / 3.85 · NO VALUE · Pick Tammara Thibeault 69%
Sean Hemphill vs Gradus Kraus · WINNER: Gradus Kraus · CORRECT
Light heavyweight · 08 Aug 2026 · STOPPAGE (REPORTED) · 10/10 · 6.4 / 1.0909 · NO VALUE · Pick Gradus Kraus 52%
Shurretta Metcalf vs Amanda Galle · WINNER: Amanda Galle · INCORRECT
Super flyweight · 08 Aug 2026 · UD · SCHEDULED 8 · 2.43 / 1.5263 · VALUE · Pick Shurretta Metcalf 69%
Unconfirmed results stay visible for reference; summary metrics use confirmed win/loss strategy bets.
Bets
25
ROI
17.68%
Profit
4.4208
Avg Odds
3.2350
Accuracy
52.00%
Win/Loss
83
Avg Diff
21.04%
Tracked
88
Forecast Quality
83 confirmed
Brier score
0.171
Log loss
0.522
ECE
13.29%
Brier skill vs close
-49.11%
Market 0.114 · 83 rows
| Forecast Band | Rows | Avg Forecast | Observed | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-60% | 27 | 55.48% | 66.67% | 11.19% |
| 60-70% | 29 | 65.13% | 82.76% | 17.63% |
| 70-80% | 17 | 74.71% | 82.35% | 7.65% |
| 80-90% | 10 | 84.06% | 100.00% | 15.94% |
| 90-100% | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Market And Strategy
Locked value only · 25 closing lines
Average CLV
+3.57%
Median CLV
0.00%
Beat-close rate
32.00%
Model-implied EV at close
+86.58%
Strategy Comparison
1u flat stake| Strategy | Bets | Profit | ROI | Accuracy | Avg Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Locked value only Active | 25 | 4.4208 | 17.68% | 52.00% | 21.04% |
| Any positive diff | 25 | 4.4208 | 17.68% | 52.00% | 21.04% |
| Diff vs implied >= 5% | 22 | 2.1239 | 9.65% | 45.45% | 23.61% |
| Diff vs implied >= 10% | 18 | 0.5643 | 3.14% | 38.89% | 27.27% |
| Model confidence >= 60% | 56 | 2.7120 | 4.84% | 85.71% | -10.64% |
| All model leans | 83 | 6.9311 | 8.35% | 79.52% | -6.83% |
| Underdog positive diff | 18 | 0.9700 | 5.39% | 38.89% | 25.70% |
Value only Active
25 bets
ROI 17.68% · Profit 4.4208 · Accuracy 52.00%
+Diff
25 bets
ROI 17.68% · Profit 4.4208 · Accuracy 52.00%
+5% diff
22 bets
ROI 9.65% · Profit 2.1239 · Accuracy 45.45%
+10% diff
18 bets
ROI 3.14% · Profit 0.5643 · Accuracy 38.89%
60%+ model
56 bets
ROI 4.84% · Profit 2.7120 · Accuracy 85.71%
All leans
83 bets
ROI 8.35% · Profit 6.9311 · Accuracy 79.52%
Dog +diff
18 bets
ROI 5.39% · Profit 0.9700 · Accuracy 38.89%
| Date | Bout | Odds | Model Lean | Win % | Implied % | Diff vs Implied | ROI % | Action | Outcome | Profit | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug 2026 | Kaye Scott vs Claressa Shields | 16 / 1.0286 | Claressa Shields | 57.55% | 97.22% | -39.67% | -40.81% | PASS | NO_BET | N/A | CORRECT |
| 16 Aug 2026 | Emmanuel Tagoe vs Ernesto Mercado | 11 / 1.04 | Ernesto Mercado | 72.29% | 96.15% | -23.86% | -24.82% | PASS | PENDING | N/A | PENDING |
| 15 Aug 2026 | Roamer Angulo vs Atif Oberlton | 8.3 / 1.05 | Atif Oberlton | 72.37% | 95.24% | -22.86% | -24.01% | PASS | NO_BET | N/A | CORRECT |
| 15 Aug 2026 | Danielle Perkins vs Olivia Curry | 1.1333 / 5.3 | Danielle Perkins | 89.32% | 88.24% | 1.09% | 1.23% | BET | PENDING | N/A | PENDING |
| 12 Aug 2026 | Michael Zerafa vs Alejandro Ortiz | 1.0769 / 6.8 | Michael Zerafa | 73.99% | 92.86% | -18.87% | -20.32% | PASS | NO_BET | N/A | CORRECT |
| 08 Aug 2026 | Sam Hickey vs Brad Axe | 1.0769 / 6.8 | Sam Hickey | 81.88% | 92.86% | -10.98% | -11.82% | PASS | NO_BET | N/A | CORRECT |
| 08 Aug 2026 | Tyler Denny vs Callum Walsh | 3.9 / 1.2439 | Callum Walsh | 63.21% | 80.39% | -17.19% | -21.38% | PASS | NO_BET | N/A | CORRECT |
| 08 Aug 2026 | Tammara Thibeault vs Desley Robinson | 1.2381 / 3.85 | Tammara Thibeault | 68.86% | 80.77% | -11.90% | -14.74% | PASS | NO_BET | N/A | CORRECT |
| 08 Aug 2026 | Sean Hemphill vs Gradus Kraus | 6.4 / 1.0909 | Gradus Kraus | 52.36% | 91.67% | -39.31% | -42.88% | PASS | NO_BET | N/A | CORRECT |
| 08 Aug 2026 | Shurretta Metcalf vs Amanda Galle | 2.43 / 1.5263 | Shurretta Metcalf | 68.74% | 41.15% | 27.58% | 67.03% | BET | LOSS | -1.0000 | INCORRECT |
| 08 Aug 2026 | John Parker vs Nikolas Charalampous | 2.75 / 1.4444 | Nikolas Charalampous | 59.90% | 69.23% | -9.33% | -13.48% | PASS | PENDING | N/A | PENDING |
| 02 Aug 2026 | Robson Conceição vs Raymond Muratalla | 6.5 / 1.1111 | Robson Conceição | 52.17% | 15.38% | 36.79% | 239.11% | BET | LOSS | -1.0000 | INCORRECT |
| 02 Aug 2026 | Paul Kroll vs Charles Conwell | 4.3 / 1.1818 | Charles Conwell | 61.65% | 84.62% | -22.96% | -27.14% | PASS | NO_BET | N/A | CORRECT |
| 02 Aug 2026 | Raúl Curiel vs Quinton Randall | 1.0769 / 6.8 | Quinton Randall | 55.42% | 16.13% | 39.29% | 243.63% | BET | LOSS | -1.0000 | INCORRECT |
| 01 Aug 2026 | Fabian Macias vs Aaron Coley | 1.0625 / 7.6 | Fabian Macias | 65.36% | 94.12% | -28.76% | -30.56% | PASS | NO_BET | N/A | CORRECT |
| 01 Aug 2026 | Yeyery Castillo vs Dalis Kaleiopu | 11 / 1.05 | Dalis Kaleiopu | 83.98% | 95.24% | -11.26% | -11.82% | PASS | NO_BET | N/A | CORRECT |
| 01 Aug 2026 | Jorge Valencia vs Joel Iriarte | 17 / 1.01 | Joel Iriarte | 79.27% | 99.01% | -19.74% | -19.94% | PASS | NO_BET | N/A | CORRECT |
| 01 Aug 2026 | Lee Reeves vs Gary Cully | 2.06 / 1.7143 | Gary Cully | 77.36% | 58.33% | 19.03% | 32.62% | BET | WIN | 0.7143 | CORRECT |
| 01 Aug 2026 | William Zepeda vs Lamont Roach | 2.64 / 1.4651 | William Segura | 58.32% | 37.88% | 20.45% | 53.98% | BET | WIN | 1.6400 | CORRECT |
| 27 Jul 2026 | Sergiy Derevyanchenko vs Jalil Hackett | 2.26 / 1.5814 | Sergiy Derevyanchenko | 50.22% | 44.25% | 5.98% | 13.51% | BET | LOSS | -1.0000 | INCORRECT |
Kaye Scott vs Claressa Shields
16 Aug 2026
Lean
Claressa Shields
Verdict
CORRECT
Win %
57.55%
Outcome
NO_BET
Odds
16 / 1.0286
Implied
97.22%
Diff
-39.67%
ROI
-40.81%
Profit
N/A
Emmanuel Tagoe vs Ernesto Mercado
16 Aug 2026
Lean
Ernesto Mercado
Verdict
PENDING
Win %
72.29%
Outcome
PENDING
Odds
11 / 1.04
Implied
96.15%
Diff
-23.86%
ROI
-24.82%
Profit
N/A
Roamer Angulo vs Atif Oberlton
15 Aug 2026
Lean
Atif Oberlton
Verdict
CORRECT
Win %
72.37%
Outcome
NO_BET
Odds
8.3 / 1.05
Implied
95.24%
Diff
-22.86%
ROI
-24.01%
Profit
N/A
Danielle Perkins vs Olivia Curry
15 Aug 2026
Lean
Danielle Perkins
Verdict
PENDING
Win %
89.32%
Outcome
PENDING
Odds
1.1333 / 5.3
Implied
88.24%
Diff
1.09%
ROI
1.23%
Profit
N/A
Michael Zerafa vs Alejandro Ortiz
12 Aug 2026
Lean
Michael Zerafa
Verdict
CORRECT
Win %
73.99%
Outcome
NO_BET
Odds
1.0769 / 6.8
Implied
92.86%
Diff
-18.87%
ROI
-20.32%
Profit
N/A
08 Aug 2026
Lean
Sam Hickey
Verdict
CORRECT
Win %
81.88%
Outcome
NO_BET
Odds
1.0769 / 6.8
Implied
92.86%
Diff
-10.98%
ROI
-11.82%
Profit
N/A
08 Aug 2026
Lean
Callum Walsh
Verdict
CORRECT
Win %
63.21%
Outcome
NO_BET
Odds
3.9 / 1.2439
Implied
80.39%
Diff
-17.19%
ROI
-21.38%
Profit
N/A
Tammara Thibeault vs Desley Robinson
08 Aug 2026
Lean
Tammara Thibeault
Verdict
CORRECT
Win %
68.86%
Outcome
NO_BET
Odds
1.2381 / 3.85
Implied
80.77%
Diff
-11.90%
ROI
-14.74%
Profit
N/A
08 Aug 2026
Lean
Gradus Kraus
Verdict
CORRECT
Win %
52.36%
Outcome
NO_BET
Odds
6.4 / 1.0909
Implied
91.67%
Diff
-39.31%
ROI
-42.88%
Profit
N/A
Shurretta Metcalf vs Amanda Galle
08 Aug 2026
Lean
Shurretta Metcalf
Verdict
INCORRECT
Win %
68.74%
Outcome
LOSS
Odds
2.43 / 1.5263
Implied
41.15%
Diff
27.58%
ROI
67.03%
Profit
-1.0000
John Parker vs Nikolas Charalampous
08 Aug 2026
Lean
Nikolas Charalampous
Verdict
PENDING
Win %
59.90%
Outcome
PENDING
Odds
2.75 / 1.4444
Implied
69.23%
Diff
-9.33%
ROI
-13.48%
Profit
N/A
Robson Conceição vs Raymond Muratalla
02 Aug 2026
Lean
Robson Conceição
Verdict
INCORRECT
Win %
52.17%
Outcome
LOSS
Odds
6.5 / 1.1111
Implied
15.38%
Diff
36.79%
ROI
239.11%
Profit
-1.0000
02 Aug 2026
Lean
Charles Conwell
Verdict
CORRECT
Win %
61.65%
Outcome
NO_BET
Odds
4.3 / 1.1818
Implied
84.62%
Diff
-22.96%
ROI
-27.14%
Profit
N/A
Raúl Curiel vs Quinton Randall
02 Aug 2026
Lean
Quinton Randall
Verdict
INCORRECT
Win %
55.42%
Outcome
LOSS
Odds
1.0769 / 6.8
Implied
16.13%
Diff
39.29%
ROI
243.63%
Profit
-1.0000
01 Aug 2026
Lean
Fabian Macias
Verdict
CORRECT
Win %
65.36%
Outcome
NO_BET
Odds
1.0625 / 7.6
Implied
94.12%
Diff
-28.76%
ROI
-30.56%
Profit
N/A
Yeyery Castillo vs Dalis Kaleiopu
01 Aug 2026
Lean
Dalis Kaleiopu
Verdict
CORRECT
Win %
83.98%
Outcome
NO_BET
Odds
11 / 1.05
Implied
95.24%
Diff
-11.26%
ROI
-11.82%
Profit
N/A
Jorge Valencia vs Joel Iriarte
01 Aug 2026
Lean
Joel Iriarte
Verdict
CORRECT
Win %
79.27%
Outcome
NO_BET
Odds
17 / 1.01
Implied
99.01%
Diff
-19.74%
ROI
-19.94%
Profit
N/A
01 Aug 2026
Lean
Gary Cully
Verdict
CORRECT
Win %
77.36%
Outcome
WIN
Odds
2.06 / 1.7143
Implied
58.33%
Diff
19.03%
ROI
32.62%
Profit
0.7143
William Zepeda vs Lamont Roach
01 Aug 2026
Lean
William Segura
Verdict
CORRECT
Win %
58.32%
Outcome
WIN
Odds
2.64 / 1.4651
Implied
37.88%
Diff
20.45%
ROI
53.98%
Profit
1.6400
Sergiy Derevyanchenko vs Jalil Hackett
27 Jul 2026
Lean
Sergiy Derevyanchenko
Verdict
INCORRECT
Win %
50.22%
Outcome
LOSS
Odds
2.26 / 1.5814
Implied
44.25%
Diff
5.98%
ROI
13.51%
Profit
-1.0000