Results

Data as of: 2026-08-09 17:19:31 UTC

Results only confirm and affect headline metrics when winner + closing odds available.

Model-derived value vs market odds. Limited sample size.

Recent Results

Methodology Page 1 of 16 · 157 rows

Result filters Expand

Conor Wallace vs Benjamin Whittaker · WINNER: Benjamin Whittaker · CORRECT

Light heavyweight · 03 Oct 2026 · 5.6 / 1.1333 · NO VALUE · Pick Benjamin Whittaker 78%

Last model prediction time: 2026-09-11 17:08:11 UTC

Omari Jones vs Alan Sanchez · WINNER: Omari Jones · CORRECT

Welterweight · 02 Oct 2026 · 1.0333 / 9.9 · NO VALUE · Pick Omari Jones 52%

Last model prediction time: 2026-09-11 16:54:15 UTC

Tenshin Nasukawa vs Takuma Inoue · WINNER: Takuma Inoue · INCORRECT

Bantamweight · 27 Sep 2026 · 2.82 / 1.3846 · VALUE · Pick Tenshin Nasukawa 73%

Last model prediction time: 2026-09-02 15:53:53 UTC

Sam Goodman vs Ryosuke Nishida · WINNER: Sam Goodman · INCORRECT

Super bantamweight · 27 Sep 2026 · 3.8 / 1.2439 · NO VALUE · Pick Ryosuke Nishida 60%

Last model prediction time: 2026-09-02 15:49:23 UTC

Radivoje Kalajdzic vs Craig Richards · WINNER: Radivoje Kalajdzic · INCORRECT

Light heavyweight · 26 Sep 2026 · 1.5495 / 2.42 · VALUE · Pick Craig Richards 54%

Last model prediction time: 2026-09-02 15:12:22 UTC

Louis Greene vs Lee Cutler · WINNER: Lee Cutler · CORRECT

Middleweight · 26 Sep 2026 · 2.4 / 1.5263 · NO VALUE · Pick Lee Cutler 52%

Last model prediction time: 2026-09-02 15:07:09 UTC

Nathan Heaney vs Gerome Warburton · WINNER: Gerome Warburton · INCORRECT

Middleweight · 26 Sep 2026 · 3.2 / 1.3226 · VALUE · Pick Nathan Heaney 65%

Last model prediction time: 2026-09-14 09:16:30 UTC

Leonardo Acevedo vs Cesar Tapia · WINNER: Leonardo Acevedo · INCORRECT

Middleweight · 26 Sep 2026 · 3 / 1.3571 · NO VALUE · Pick Cesar Tapia 63%

Last model prediction time: 2026-09-24 08:12:49 UTC

Kyonosuke Kameda vs Sebastian Hernandez · WINNER: Sebastian Hernandez · INCORRECT

Featherweight · 23 Sep 2026 · 5 / 1.1538 · VALUE · Pick Kyonosuke Kameda 60%

Last model prediction time: 2026-09-11 13:33:39 UTC

Jin Sasaki vs David Ssemujju · WINNER: Jin Sasaki · INCORRECT

Welterweight · 21 Sep 2026 · 1.0769 / 6.8 · VALUE · Pick David Ssemujju 55%

Last model prediction time: 2026-09-11 13:26:40 UTC

Conor Wallace vs Benjamin Whittaker · WINNER: Benjamin Whittaker · CORRECT

Light heavyweight · 03 Oct 2026 · 5.6 / 1.1333 · NO VALUE · Pick Benjamin Whittaker 78%

Last model prediction time: 2026-09-11 17:08:11 UTC

Omari Jones vs Alan Sanchez · WINNER: Omari Jones · CORRECT

Welterweight · 02 Oct 2026 · 1.0333 / 9.9 · NO VALUE · Pick Omari Jones 52%

Last model prediction time: 2026-09-11 16:54:15 UTC

Tenshin Nasukawa vs Takuma Inoue · WINNER: Takuma Inoue · INCORRECT

Bantamweight · 27 Sep 2026 · 2.82 / 1.3846 · VALUE · Pick Tenshin Nasukawa 73%

Last model prediction time: 2026-09-02 15:53:53 UTC

Sam Goodman vs Ryosuke Nishida · WINNER: Sam Goodman · INCORRECT

Super bantamweight · 27 Sep 2026 · 3.8 / 1.2439 · NO VALUE · Pick Ryosuke Nishida 60%

Last model prediction time: 2026-09-02 15:49:23 UTC

Radivoje Kalajdzic vs Craig Richards · WINNER: Radivoje Kalajdzic · INCORRECT

Light heavyweight · 26 Sep 2026 · 1.5495 / 2.42 · VALUE · Pick Craig Richards 54%

Last model prediction time: 2026-09-02 15:12:22 UTC

Louis Greene vs Lee Cutler · WINNER: Lee Cutler · CORRECT

Middleweight · 26 Sep 2026 · 2.4 / 1.5263 · NO VALUE · Pick Lee Cutler 52%

Last model prediction time: 2026-09-02 15:07:09 UTC

Nathan Heaney vs Gerome Warburton · WINNER: Gerome Warburton · INCORRECT

Middleweight · 26 Sep 2026 · 3.2 / 1.3226 · VALUE · Pick Nathan Heaney 65%

Last model prediction time: 2026-09-14 09:16:30 UTC

Leonardo Acevedo vs Cesar Tapia · WINNER: Leonardo Acevedo · INCORRECT

Middleweight · 26 Sep 2026 · 3 / 1.3571 · NO VALUE · Pick Cesar Tapia 63%

Last model prediction time: 2026-09-24 08:12:49 UTC

Kyonosuke Kameda vs Sebastian Hernandez · WINNER: Sebastian Hernandez · INCORRECT

Featherweight · 23 Sep 2026 · 5 / 1.1538 · VALUE · Pick Kyonosuke Kameda 60%

Last model prediction time: 2026-09-11 13:33:39 UTC

Jin Sasaki vs David Ssemujju · WINNER: Jin Sasaki · INCORRECT

Welterweight · 21 Sep 2026 · 1.0769 / 6.8 · VALUE · Pick David Ssemujju 55%

Last model prediction time: 2026-09-11 13:26:40 UTC

Tracked Prediction Data

Unconfirmed results stay visible for reference; summary metrics use confirmed win/loss strategy bets.

Methodology Page 1 of 8 · 157 rows

Model Results Strategy Period From To Rows

Prediction filters Expand

Model Results Strategy Period

From To

Rows

Tracked rows

157

Confirmed win/loss

139

Strategy bets

Accuracy

52.08%

ROI

24.93%

Profit (u)

11.9684

Avg diff vs implied

23.62%

Avg odds

3.2607

Bets

ROI

24.93%

Profit

11.9684

Avg Odds

3.2607

Accuracy

52.08%

Win/Loss

139

Avg Diff

23.62%

Tracked

157

Advanced

Advanced Strategy Metrics

Calculated from settled bets selected by the active strategy.

Locked value only · 48 settled bets

Forecast Quality

Brier score

0.256

Log loss

0.703

ECE

11.28%

Brier skill vs prediction odds

-22.31%

Market 0.210 - 47 de-vigged market lines

Forecast Band	Rows	Avg Forecast	Observed	Gap
50-60%	23	55.92%	52.17%	3.75%
60-70%	16	64.21%	50.00%	14.21%
70-80%	7	73.25%	42.86%	30.39%
80-90%	1	86.91%	100.00%	13.09%
90-100%	1	97.99%	100.00%	2.01%

Market And Strategy

Locked value only · 47 closing lines

Average CLV

+6.72%

Median CLV

+2.86%

Beat-close rate

57.45%

Model-implied EV at close

+88.78%

Strategy Comparison

1u flat stake

Strategy	Bets	Profit	ROI	Accuracy	Avg Diff
Locked value only Active	48	11.9684	24.93%	52.08%	23.62%
Any positive diff	48	11.9684	24.93%	52.08%	23.62%
Diff vs implied >= 5%	44	10.1172	22.99%	47.73%	25.52%
Diff vs implied >= 10%	40	7.1397	17.85%	42.50%	27.43%
Model confidence >= 60%	92	-2.5056	-2.72%	78.26%	-5.92%
All model leans	139	14.7976	10.65%	76.26%	-4.16%
Underdog positive diff	36	6.2300	17.31%	38.89%	28.59%

Value only Active

48 bets

ROI 24.93% · Profit 11.9684 · Accuracy 52.08%

+Diff

48 bets

ROI 24.93% · Profit 11.9684 · Accuracy 52.08%

+5% diff

44 bets

ROI 22.99% · Profit 10.1172 · Accuracy 47.73%

+10% diff

40 bets

ROI 17.85% · Profit 7.1397 · Accuracy 42.50%

60%+ model

92 bets

ROI -2.72% · Profit -2.5056 · Accuracy 78.26%

All leans

139 bets

ROI 10.65% · Profit 14.7976 · Accuracy 76.26%

Dog +diff

36 bets

ROI 17.31% · Profit 6.2300 · Accuracy 38.89%

Date	Bout	Odds	Model Lean	Win %	Implied %	Diff vs Implied	ROI %	Action	Outcome	Profit	Verdict
03 Oct 2026	Conor Wallace vs Benjamin Whittaker	5.6 / 1.1333	Benjamin Whittaker	78.46%	88.24%	-9.78%	-11.09%	PASS	NO_BET	N/A	CORRECT
02 Oct 2026	Omari Jones vs Alan Sanchez	1.0333 / 9.9	Omari Jones	51.84%	96.78%	-44.93%	-46.43%	PASS	NO_BET	N/A	CORRECT
27 Sep 2026	Sam Goodman vs Ryosuke Nishida	3.8 / 1.2439	Ryosuke Nishida	60.15%	80.39%	-20.25%	-25.18%	PASS	NO_BET	N/A	INCORRECT
27 Sep 2026	Tenshin Nasukawa vs Takuma Inoue	2.82 / 1.3846	Tenshin Nasukawa	73.38%	35.46%	37.92%	106.93%	BET	LOSS	-1.0000	INCORRECT
26 Sep 2026	Leonardo Acevedo vs Cesar Tapia	3 / 1.3571	Cesar Tapia	63.14%	73.69%	-10.55%	-14.31%	PASS	NO_BET	N/A	INCORRECT
26 Sep 2026	Nathan Heaney vs Gerome Warburton	3.2 / 1.3226	Nathan Heaney	64.73%	31.25%	33.48%	107.14%	BET	LOSS	-1.0000	INCORRECT
26 Sep 2026	Louis Greene vs Lee Cutler	2.4 / 1.5263	Lee Cutler	52.23%	65.52%	-13.29%	-20.28%	PASS	NO_BET	N/A	CORRECT
26 Sep 2026	Radivoje Kalajdzic vs Craig Richards	1.5495 / 2.42	Craig Richards	54.22%	41.32%	12.90%	31.22%	BET	LOSS	-1.0000	INCORRECT
23 Sep 2026	Kyonosuke Kameda vs Sebastian Hernandez	5 / 1.1538	Kyonosuke Kameda	60.38%	20.00%	40.38%	201.90%	BET	LOSS	-1.0000	INCORRECT
21 Sep 2026	Jin Sasaki vs David Ssemujju	1.0769 / 6.8	David Ssemujju	55.31%	14.71%	40.60%	276.07%	BET	LOSS	-1.0000	INCORRECT
19 Sep 2026	Shabaz Masoud vs Ckari Mansilla	1.1 / 6.2	Shabaz Masoud	72.36%	90.91%	-18.55%	-20.41%	PASS	NO_BET	N/A	CORRECT
19 Sep 2026	Sergio Jimenez vs Daniel Blancas	9.1 / 1.0417	Daniel Blancas	83.88%	96.00%	-12.11%	-12.62%	PASS	NO_BET	N/A	CORRECT
19 Sep 2026	Nestor Velazquez vs Isaac Cruz	5.7 / 1.1333	Nestor Velazquez	71.37%	17.54%	53.82%	306.78%	BET	LOSS	-1.0000	INCORRECT
13 Sep 2026	Christian Assomo-Hallier vs Canelo Álvarez	3.5 / 1.2857	Canelo Álvarez	50.20%	77.78%	-27.58%	-35.46%	PASS	PENDING	N/A	PENDING
13 Sep 2026	Mark Magsayo vs Andres Cortes	1.5208 / 2.42	Andres Cortes	55.35%	41.32%	14.02%	33.94%	BET	WIN	1.4200	CORRECT
12 Sep 2026	Francois Scarboro vs Dominic Valle	4 / 1.2299	Dominic Valle	74.38%	81.31%	-6.93%	-8.53%	PASS	NO_BET	N/A	CORRECT
12 Sep 2026	Vlad Panin vs Dakota Linger	1.2198 / 4.1	Vlad Panin	86.91%	81.98%	4.93%	6.01%	BET	WIN	0.2198	CORRECT
12 Sep 2026	Pablo Rubio vs Oswaldo Jimenez	1.3333 / 3.15	Oswaldo Jimenez	61.11%	31.75%	29.37%	92.50%	BET	WIN	2.1500	CORRECT
12 Sep 2026	José Ramírez vs Alexis Rocha	3.05 / 1.3448	Alexis Rocha	55.68%	74.36%	-18.68%	-25.12%	PASS	NO_BET	N/A	CORRECT
12 Sep 2026	Raphael Akpejiori vs Damazion Vanhouter	8.2 / 1.0556	Raphael Akpejiori	61.89%	12.20%	49.69%	407.48%	BET	LOSS	-1.0000	INCORRECT

Prediction bout cards Expand

Conor Wallace vs Benjamin Whittaker

03 Oct 2026

PASS

Lean

Benjamin Whittaker

Verdict

CORRECT

Win %

78.46%

Outcome

NO_BET

Odds

5.6 / 1.1333

Implied

88.24%

Diff

-9.78%

ROI

-11.09%

Profit

N/A

Omari Jones vs Alan Sanchez

02 Oct 2026

PASS

Lean

Omari Jones

Verdict

CORRECT

Win %

51.84%

Outcome

NO_BET

Odds

1.0333 / 9.9

Implied

96.78%

Diff

-44.93%

ROI

-46.43%

Profit

N/A

Sam Goodman vs Ryosuke Nishida

27 Sep 2026

PASS

Lean

Ryosuke Nishida

Verdict

INCORRECT

Win %

60.15%

Outcome

NO_BET

Odds

3.8 / 1.2439

Implied

80.39%

Diff

-20.25%

ROI

-25.18%

Profit

N/A

Tenshin Nasukawa vs Takuma Inoue

27 Sep 2026

BET

Lean

Tenshin Nasukawa

Verdict

INCORRECT

Win %

73.38%

Outcome

LOSS

Odds

2.82 / 1.3846

Implied

35.46%

Diff

37.92%

ROI

106.93%

Profit

-1.0000

Leonardo Acevedo vs Cesar Tapia

26 Sep 2026

PASS

Lean

Cesar Tapia

Verdict

INCORRECT

Win %

63.14%

Outcome

NO_BET

Odds

3 / 1.3571

Implied

73.69%

Diff

-10.55%

ROI

-14.31%

Profit

N/A

Nathan Heaney vs Gerome Warburton

26 Sep 2026

BET

Lean

Nathan Heaney

Verdict

INCORRECT

Win %

64.73%

Outcome

LOSS

Odds

3.2 / 1.3226

Implied

31.25%

Diff

33.48%

ROI

107.14%

Profit

-1.0000

Louis Greene vs Lee Cutler

26 Sep 2026

PASS

Lean

Lee Cutler

Verdict

CORRECT

Win %

52.23%

Outcome

NO_BET

Odds

2.4 / 1.5263

Implied

65.52%

Diff

-13.29%

ROI

-20.28%

Profit

N/A

Radivoje Kalajdzic vs Craig Richards

26 Sep 2026

BET

Lean

Craig Richards

Verdict

INCORRECT

Win %

54.22%

Outcome

LOSS

Odds

1.5495 / 2.42

Implied

41.32%

Diff

12.90%

ROI

31.22%

Profit

-1.0000

Kyonosuke Kameda vs Sebastian Hernandez

23 Sep 2026

BET

Lean

Kyonosuke Kameda

Verdict

INCORRECT

Win %

60.38%

Outcome

LOSS

Odds

5 / 1.1538

Implied

20.00%

Diff

40.38%

ROI

201.90%

Profit

-1.0000

Jin Sasaki vs David Ssemujju

21 Sep 2026

BET

Lean

David Ssemujju

Verdict

INCORRECT

Win %

55.31%

Outcome

LOSS

Odds

1.0769 / 6.8

Implied

14.71%

Diff

40.60%

ROI

276.07%

Profit

-1.0000

Shabaz Masoud vs Ckari Mansilla

19 Sep 2026

PASS

Lean

Shabaz Masoud

Verdict

CORRECT

Win %

72.36%

Outcome

NO_BET

Odds

1.1 / 6.2

Implied

90.91%

Diff

-18.55%

ROI

-20.41%

Profit

N/A

Sergio Jimenez vs Daniel Blancas

19 Sep 2026

PASS

Lean

Daniel Blancas

Verdict

CORRECT

Win %

83.88%

Outcome

NO_BET

Odds

9.1 / 1.0417

Implied

96.00%

Diff

-12.11%

ROI

-12.62%

Profit

N/A

Nestor Velazquez vs Isaac Cruz

19 Sep 2026

BET

Lean

Nestor Velazquez

Verdict

INCORRECT

Win %

71.37%

Outcome

LOSS

Odds

5.7 / 1.1333

Implied

17.54%

Diff

53.82%

ROI

306.78%

Profit

-1.0000

Christian Assomo-Hallier vs Canelo Álvarez

13 Sep 2026

PASS

Lean

Canelo Álvarez

Verdict

PENDING

Win %

50.20%

Outcome

PENDING

Odds

3.5 / 1.2857

Implied

77.78%

Diff

-27.58%

ROI

-35.46%

Profit

N/A

Mark Magsayo vs Andres Cortes

13 Sep 2026

BET

Lean

Andres Cortes

Verdict

CORRECT

Win %

55.35%

Outcome

WIN

Odds

1.5208 / 2.42

Implied

41.32%

Diff

14.02%

ROI

33.94%

Profit

1.4200

Francois Scarboro vs Dominic Valle

12 Sep 2026

PASS

Lean

Dominic Valle

Verdict

CORRECT

Win %

74.38%

Outcome

NO_BET

Odds

4 / 1.2299

Implied

81.31%

Diff

-6.93%

ROI

-8.53%

Profit

N/A

Vlad Panin vs Dakota Linger

12 Sep 2026

BET

Lean

Vlad Panin

Verdict

CORRECT

Win %

86.91%

Outcome

WIN

Odds

1.2198 / 4.1

Implied

81.98%

Diff

4.93%

ROI

6.01%

Profit

0.2198

Pablo Rubio vs Oswaldo Jimenez

12 Sep 2026

BET

Lean

Oswaldo Jimenez

Verdict

CORRECT

Win %

61.11%

Outcome

WIN

Odds

1.3333 / 3.15

Implied

31.75%

Diff

29.37%

ROI

92.50%

Profit

2.1500

José Ramírez vs Alexis Rocha

12 Sep 2026

PASS

Lean

Alexis Rocha

Verdict

CORRECT

Win %

55.68%

Outcome

NO_BET

Odds

3.05 / 1.3448

Implied

74.36%

Diff

-18.68%

ROI

-25.12%

Profit

N/A

Raphael Akpejiori vs Damazion Vanhouter

12 Sep 2026

BET

Lean

Raphael Akpejiori

Verdict

INCORRECT

Win %

61.89%

Outcome

LOSS

Odds

8.2 / 1.0556

Implied

12.20%

Diff

49.69%

ROI

407.48%

Profit

-1.0000