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Results

Data as of: 2026-08-09 17:19:31 UTC

Results only confirm and affect headline metrics when winner + closing odds available.

Model-derived value vs market odds. Limited sample size.

Recent Results

Methodology Page 1 of 15 · 143 rows
Result filters Expand

Rafael Espinoza vs Lorenzo Parra · WINNER: Rafael Espinoza · CORRECT

Featherweight · 31 Oct 2026 · 1.1538 / 5 · VALUE · Pick Rafael Espinoza 92% · ROI +6.6%

Last model prediction time: 2026-10-14 09:33:48 UTC

David Picasso vs Carl Jammes Martin · WINNER: Carl Jammes Martin · INCORRECT

Featherweight · 31 Oct 2026 · 1.1429 / 5.1 · NO VALUE · Pick David Picasso 82%

Last model prediction time: 2026-10-29 08:45:33 UTC

Canelo Álvarez vs Christian Assomo-Hallier · WINNER: Canelo Álvarez · CORRECT

Super middleweight · 31 Oct 2026 · 1.2857 / 3.5 · NO VALUE · Pick Canelo Álvarez 53%

Last model prediction time: 2026-10-04 07:35:57 UTC

Shogo Tanaka vs Sho Nogami · WINNER: Shogo Tanaka · INCORRECT

Flyweight · 29 Oct 2026 · 2.08 / 1.7042 · VALUE · Pick Sho Nogami 66%

Last model prediction time: 2026-10-22 12:47:05 UTC

O'Shaquie Foster vs Emanuel Navarrete · WINNER: O'Shaquie Foster · INCORRECT

Super featherweight · 24 Oct 2026 · 1.4878 / 2.58 · VALUE · Pick Emanuel Navarrete 60%

Last model prediction time: 2026-09-28 08:11:48 UTC

Edward Vazquez vs Albert Gonzalez · WINNER: Albert Gonzalez · CORRECT

Featherweight · 24 Oct 2026 · 5.7 / 1.1333 · NO VALUE · Pick Albert Gonzalez 67%

Last model prediction time: 2026-09-28 08:16:00 UTC

Tarik Zaina vs Frank Martin · WINNER: Frank Martin · CORRECT

Super lightweight · 24 Oct 2026 · 8.2 / 1.0556 · NO VALUE · Pick Frank Martin 56%

Last model prediction time: 2026-10-04 07:31:21 UTC

Dalton Smith vs Alberto Puello · WINNER: Dalton Smith · CORRECT

Super lightweight · 24 Oct 2026 · 1.5 / 2.54 · NO VALUE · Pick Dalton Smith 53%

Last model prediction time: 2026-09-28 08:07:15 UTC

Emanuel Moreno vs Isaias Navarro · STATUS: Pending · PENDING

Bantamweight · 24 Oct 2026 · 4.3 / 1.1818 · NO VALUE · Pick Isaias Navarro 62%

Last model prediction time: 2026-10-22 12:11:55 UTC

Koen Mazoudier vs Armando Reséndiz · WINNER: Armando Reséndiz · CORRECT

Super middleweight · 17 Oct 2026 · 5.6 / 1.125 · VALUE · Pick Armando Reséndiz 91% · ROI +2.5%

Last model prediction time: 2026-10-14 07:39:40 UTC

Tracked Prediction Data

Unconfirmed results stay visible for reference; summary metrics use confirmed win/loss strategy bets.

Methodology Page 1 of 8 · 143 rows
Prediction filters Expand

Bets

71

ROI

-16.94%

Profit

-12.0288

Avg Odds

4.9239

Accuracy

33.80%

Win/Loss

132

Avg Diff

31.90%

Tracked

143

Advanced

Advanced Strategy Metrics

Calculated from settled bets selected by the active strategy.

Locked value only · 71 settled bets

Forecast Quality

Brier score

0.313

Log loss

0.833

ECE

32.52%

Brier skill vs prediction odds

-106.86%

Market 0.151 - 71 de-vigged market lines

Forecast Band Rows Avg Forecast Observed Gap
50-60% 31 54.41% 22.58% 31.82%
60-70% 16 65.12% 37.50% 27.62%
70-80% 12 75.80% 25.00% 50.80%
80-90% 9 83.55% 55.56% 27.99%
90-100% 3 93.71% 100.00% 6.29%

Market And Strategy

Locked value only · 68 closing lines

Average CLV

-2.03%

Median CLV

0.00%

Beat-close rate

33.82%

Model-implied EV at close

+238.75%

Strategy Comparison

1u flat stake

Value only Active

71 bets

ROI -16.94% · Profit -12.0288 · Accuracy 33.80%

+Diff

71 bets

ROI -16.94% · Profit -12.0288 · Accuracy 33.80%

+5% diff

61 bets

ROI -20.79% · Profit -12.6828 · Accuracy 26.23%

+10% diff

55 bets

ROI -20.05% · Profit -11.0266 · Accuracy 23.64%

60%+ model

74 bets

ROI -2.32% · Profit -1.7189 · Accuracy 64.86%

All leans

132 bets

ROI -9.93% · Profit -13.1081 · Accuracy 56.82%

Dog +diff

56 bets

ROI -24.34% · Profit -13.6300 · Accuracy 21.43%

Prediction bout cards Expand

Rafael Espinoza vs Lorenzo Parra

31 Oct 2026

BET

Lean

Rafael Espinoza

Verdict

CORRECT

Win %

92.36%

Outcome

WIN

Odds

1.1538 / 5

Implied

86.67%

Diff

5.69%

ROI

6.56%

Profit

0.1538

David Picasso vs Carl Jammes Martin

31 Oct 2026

PASS

Lean

David Picasso

Verdict

INCORRECT

Win %

81.58%

Outcome

NO_BET

Odds

1.1429 / 5.1

Implied

87.50%

Diff

-5.92%

ROI

-6.76%

Profit

N/A

Shogo Tanaka vs Sho Nogami

29 Oct 2026

BET

Lean

Sho Nogami

Verdict

INCORRECT

Win %

65.89%

Outcome

LOSS

Odds

2.08 / 1.7042

Implied

58.68%

Diff

7.21%

ROI

12.28%

Profit

-1.0000

Edward Vazquez vs Albert Gonzalez

24 Oct 2026

PASS

Lean

Albert Gonzalez

Verdict

CORRECT

Win %

66.66%

Outcome

NO_BET

Odds

5.7 / 1.1333

Implied

88.24%

Diff

-21.57%

ROI

-24.45%

Profit

N/A

Tarik Zaina vs Frank Martin

24 Oct 2026

PASS

Lean

Frank Martin

Verdict

CORRECT

Win %

55.59%

Outcome

NO_BET

Odds

8.2 / 1.0556

Implied

94.73%

Diff

-39.15%

ROI

-41.32%

Profit

N/A

Dalton Smith vs Alberto Puello

24 Oct 2026

PASS

Lean

Dalton Smith

Verdict

CORRECT

Win %

53.41%

Outcome

NO_BET

Odds

1.5 / 2.54

Implied

66.67%

Diff

-13.25%

ROI

-19.88%

Profit

N/A

Emanuel Moreno vs Isaias Navarro

24 Oct 2026

PASS

Lean

Isaias Navarro

Verdict

PENDING

Win %

61.60%

Outcome

PENDING

Odds

4.3 / 1.1818

Implied

84.62%

Diff

-23.01%

ROI

-27.20%

Profit

N/A

Fabio Wardley vs Daniel Dubois

17 Oct 2026

BET

Lean

Fabio Wardley

Verdict

INCORRECT

Win %

53.36%

Outcome

LOSS

Odds

5.3 / 1.1538

Implied

18.87%

Diff

34.49%

ROI

182.78%

Profit

-1.0000

Juan González vs Justin Pauldo

17 Oct 2026

BET

Lean

Justin Pauldo

Verdict

CORRECT

Win %

61.12%

Outcome

WIN

Odds

1.8621 / 1.8621

Implied

53.70%

Diff

7.42%

ROI

13.81%

Profit

0.8621

Oscar Collazo vs Ricardo Sandoval

11 Oct 2026

BET

Lean

Ricardo Sandoval

Verdict

PENDING

Win %

85.52%

Outcome

PENDING

Odds

2.12 / 1.6944

Implied

59.02%

Diff

26.50%

ROI

44.91%

Profit

N/A

Conor Wallace vs Benjamin Whittaker

03 Oct 2026

PASS

Lean

Benjamin Whittaker

Verdict

CORRECT

Win %

85.66%

Outcome

NO_BET

Odds

5.6 / 1.1333

Implied

88.24%

Diff

-2.58%

ROI

-2.92%

Profit

N/A

Omari Jones vs Alan Sanchez

02 Oct 2026

PASS

Lean

Omari Jones

Verdict

CORRECT

Win %

55.50%

Outcome

NO_BET

Odds

1.0333 / 9.9

Implied

96.78%

Diff

-41.28%

ROI

-42.65%

Profit

N/A

Tenshin Nasukawa vs Takuma Inoue

27 Sep 2026

BET

Lean

Tenshin Nasukawa

Verdict

INCORRECT

Win %

52.76%

Outcome

LOSS

Odds

2.82 / 1.3846

Implied

35.46%

Diff

17.30%

ROI

48.78%

Profit

-1.0000

Sam Goodman vs Ryosuke Nishida

27 Sep 2026

BET

Lean

Sam Goodman

Verdict

CORRECT

Win %

66.49%

Outcome

WIN

Odds

3.8 / 1.2439

Implied

26.32%

Diff

40.17%

ROI

152.66%

Profit

2.8000

Radivoje Kalajdzic vs Craig Richards

26 Sep 2026

PASS

Lean

Radivoje Kalajdzic

Verdict

CORRECT

Win %

51.39%

Outcome

NO_BET

Odds

1.5495 / 2.42

Implied

64.54%

Diff

-13.14%

ROI

-20.36%

Profit

N/A

Louis Greene vs Lee Cutler

26 Sep 2026

PASS

Lean

Lee Cutler

Verdict

CORRECT

Win %

62.30%

Outcome

NO_BET

Odds

2.4 / 1.5263

Implied

65.52%

Diff

-3.22%

ROI

-4.92%

Profit

N/A

Nathan Heaney vs Gerome Warburton

26 Sep 2026

PASS

Lean

Gerome Warburton

Verdict

CORRECT

Win %

51.69%

Outcome

NO_BET

Odds

3.2 / 1.3226

Implied

75.61%

Diff

-23.91%

ROI

-31.63%

Profit

N/A

Model: Opponent Derived Objective

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