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Tagoe vs Mercado 16 Aug 2026 Model pick: Mercado Locked prediction 71.83% ROI: -25.30% Super lightweight Tap to expand Analysis
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Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model pick Ernesto Mercado 71.83%

Tagoe odds 11.0000

Mercado odds 1.0400

Tagoe implied 9.09%

Mercado implied 96.15%

Market odds 1.04

Implied probability 96.15%

Expected return 0.7470

ROI -25.30%

Edge -24.32%

Lean No Value

Bout Locked prediction

Locked prediction as of 2026-08-15 08:21:09 UTC

Fighter details
ET
Emmanuel Tagoe

Score 63.86 · 32-2-0 (15 KO)

Full name Emmanuel Tagoe

Age 37 · Rank #257 · Confidence Medium 0.588

Stance Orthodox · H/R 173cm / 178cm · GH

EM
Ernesto Mercado

Score 69.65 · 19-0-0 (18 KO)

Full name Ernesto De Jesus Mercado

Age 24 · Rank #106 · Confidence Medium 0.582

Stance Orthodox · H/R 178cm / 188cm · US

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

68.0 Tagoe Confidence Medium 0.720

92.0 Mercado Confidence High 0.870

Punching Accuracy

70.0 Tagoe Confidence Medium 0.580

82.0 Mercado Confidence Medium 0.670

Hand Speed

71.0 Tagoe Confidence Medium 0.500

84.0 Mercado Confidence Medium 0.620

Pace Pressure

60.0 Tagoe Confidence Medium 0.620

78.0 Mercado Confidence Medium 0.630

Defensive Skill

74.0 Tagoe Confidence Medium 0.680

72.0 Mercado Confidence Low 0.480

Distance Footwork Control

73.0 Tagoe Confidence Medium 0.620

79.0 Mercado Confidence Medium 0.580

Ring IQ Adaptability

76.0 Tagoe Confidence Medium 0.670

76.0 Mercado Confidence Medium 0.560

Counter Punching

72.0 Tagoe Confidence Medium 0.520

75.0 Mercado Confidence Medium 0.500

Chin

69.0 Tagoe Confidence Medium 0.640

74.0 Mercado Confidence Low 0.410

Cardio Engine

77.0 Tagoe Confidence Medium 0.740

73.0 Mercado Confidence Medium 0.520

Style Profile Tagoe: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer  vs  Mercado: Power Slugger Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

10.0 Tagoe Confidence Low 0.420

18.0 Mercado Confidence Medium 0.580

Out-Boxer

34.0 Tagoe Confidence Medium 0.670

8.0 Mercado Confidence Low 0.450

Power Slugger

12.0 Tagoe Confidence Medium 0.580

41.0 Mercado Confidence High 0.820

Boxer-Puncher

36.0 Tagoe Confidence Medium 0.720

25.0 Mercado Confidence Medium 0.640

Counter-Puncher

8.0 Tagoe Confidence Low 0.310

8.0 Mercado Confidence Low 0.380

Stance Interaction Tagoe vs orthodox  ·  Mercado vs orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

68.0 Tagoe Confidence Medium 0.620

66.0 Mercado Confidence Medium 0.590

Vs Southpaw

32.0 Tagoe Confidence Low 0.380

34.0 Mercado Confidence Medium 0.590

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Tagoe

100 Mercado

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Tagoe

100 Mercado

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

0 Tagoe

66.67 Mercado

Opponent Rating Last 3

61.12 Tagoe

70.24 Mercado

Trend Score Last 5

80 Tagoe

100 Mercado

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

81.72 Tagoe

100 Mercado

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

39.25 Tagoe

100 Mercado

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

0 Tagoe

66.67 Mercado

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

61.12 Tagoe

70.24 Mercado

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

90 Tagoe

100 Mercado

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Tagoe moves up 1 class.

Mercado stays in class.

Interaction: low advantage Mercado.

Advantage: Mercado

Height Reach Delta

Tagoe height: 173.0cm reach: 178.0cm

Mercado height: 178.0cm reach: 188.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Mercado.

Advantage: Mercado +15.0cm

Stance Interaction

Tagoe vs orthodox: 68.0

Mercado vs orthodox: 66.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Tagoe style: Boxer Puncher

Mercado style: Power Slugger

Interaction: medium advantage Tagoe.

Advantage: Tagoe

Model: Very high subjective

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