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Casimero vs Nery 18 Apr 2026 Model pick: Casimero Current odds 54.71% ROI: 54.29% Tap to expand Analysis
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Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model pick John Casimero 54.71%

Casimero odds 2.8200

Nery odds 1.3846

Casimero implied 35.46%

Nery implied 72.22%

Pick odds 2.82

Pick implied 35.46%

Expected return 1.5429

ROI 54.29%

Edge 19.25%

Lean Value

Bout Current odds

Odds updated 2026-04-13 07:28:30 UTC

Fighter details
JC
John Casimero

Score 64.81 · 35-5-1 (24 KO)

Full name John Riel Reponte Casimero

Age 37 · Rank #198 · Confidence Medium 0.642

Stance Orthodox · H/R 163cm / 178cm · PH

LN
Luis Nery

Score 66.46 · 37-2-0 (28 KO)

Full name Luis Esteban Nery Hernández

Age 31 · Rank #156 · Confidence Medium 0.674

Stance Southpaw · H/R 166cm / 171cm · MX

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

84.0 Casimero Confidence High 0.790

90.0 Nery Confidence High 0.860

Punching Accuracy

72.0 Casimero Confidence Medium 0.650

76.0 Nery Confidence Medium 0.630

Hand Speed

77.0 Casimero Confidence Medium 0.680

82.0 Nery Confidence Medium 0.660

Pace Pressure

78.0 Casimero Confidence Medium 0.720

85.0 Nery Confidence High 0.770

Defensive Skill

62.0 Casimero Confidence Medium 0.610

62.0 Nery Confidence Medium 0.690

Distance Footwork Control

66.0 Casimero Confidence Medium 0.580

68.0 Nery Confidence Medium 0.580

Ring Iq Adaptability

74.0 Casimero Confidence Medium 0.670

70.0 Nery Confidence Medium 0.610

Counter Punching

75.0 Casimero Confidence Medium 0.630

71.0 Nery Confidence Medium 0.550

Chin

71.0 Casimero Confidence Medium 0.660

58.0 Nery Confidence Medium 0.720

Cardio Engine

69.0 Casimero Confidence Medium 0.640

74.0 Nery Confidence Medium 0.640

Style Profile Casimero: Power Slugger Boxer-Puncher  vs  Nery: Power Slugger Pressure Swarmer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

24.0 Casimero Confidence Medium 0.620

28.0 Nery Confidence Medium 0.730

Out Boxer

8.0 Casimero Confidence Low 0.480

6.0 Nery Confidence Medium 0.630

Power Slugger

33.0 Casimero Confidence High 0.780

34.0 Nery Confidence High 0.870

Boxer Puncher

27.0 Casimero Confidence Medium 0.670

24.0 Nery Confidence Medium 0.710

Counter Puncher

8.0 Casimero Confidence Low 0.420

8.0 Nery Confidence Medium 0.520

Stance Advantage Casimero Advantage Vs Orthodox  vs  Nery Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

58.0 Casimero Confidence Medium 0.660

58.0 Nery Confidence Medium 0.640

Vs Southpaw

42.0 Casimero Confidence Medium 0.660

42.0 Nery Confidence Medium 0.640

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Casimero

66.67 Nery

Ko Rate Last 3

66.67 Casimero

33.33 Nery

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Casimero

33.33 Nery

Opponent Rating Last 3

49 Casimero

61.4 Nery

Trend Score Last 5

70 Casimero

80 Nery

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

76.75 Casimero

81.94 Nery

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

66.67 Casimero

54.17 Nery

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Casimero

33.33 Nery

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

50.75 Casimero

61.4 Nery

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

85 Casimero

80 Nery

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Casimero moves down 2 classes.

Nery moves down 2 classes.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Reach vs Height Delta

Casimero reach: 178.0cm height: 163.0cm delta: 15.0cm

Nery reach: 171.0cm height: 166.0cm delta: 5.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Casimero.

Advantage: Casimero

Stance Interaction

Casimero advantage against orthodox: 58.0

Nery advantage against orthodox: 58.0

Interaction: low advantage Nery.

Advantage: Nery

Style Interaction

Casimero style: Power Slugger

Nery style: Power Slugger

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Model: Algobetting

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