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Smith vs Jr. 18 Apr 2026 Model pick: Morrell Current odds 65.90% ROI: 24.74% Tap to expand Analysis
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Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model pick David Morrell 65.90%

Smith odds 1.8929

Jr. odds 1.8929

Smith implied 52.83%

Jr. implied 52.83%

Pick odds 1.8929

Pick implied 52.83%

Expected return 1.2474

ROI 24.74%

Edge 13.07%

Lean Value

Bout Current odds

Odds updated 2026-04-13 07:28:30 UTC

Fighter details
CS
Callum Smith

Score 67.52 · 31-2-0 (22 KO)

Full name Callum John Smith

Age 36 · Rank #136 · Confidence Medium 0.624

Stance Orthodox · H/R 191cm / 198cm · GB

OJ
Osvary Gutierrez Jr.

Score 72.10 · 12-1-0 (9 KO)

Full name Osvary David Morrell Gutierrez Jr.

Age 28 · Rank #70 · Confidence Medium 0.649

Stance Southpaw · H/R 185cm / 196cm · CU

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

84.0 Smith Confidence High 0.790

87.0 Jr. Confidence High 0.820

Punching Accuracy

74.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.650

79.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.660

Hand Speed

69.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.580

82.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.680

Pace Pressure

68.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.630

74.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.640

Defensive Skill

71.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.640

76.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.670

Distance Footwork Control

80.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.720

80.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.720

Ring Iq Adaptability

78.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.690

78.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.700

Counter Punching

73.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.590

81.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.690

Chin

67.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.620

73.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.550

Cardio Engine

75.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.680

77.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.680

Style Profile Smith: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer  vs  Jr.: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

10.0 Smith Confidence Low 0.460

12.0 Jr. Confidence Low 0.460

Out Boxer

28.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.720

18.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.620

Power Slugger

24.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.740

23.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.720

Boxer Puncher

32.0 Smith Confidence High 0.800

37.0 Jr. Confidence High 0.770

Counter Puncher

6.0 Smith Confidence Low 0.330

10.0 Jr. Confidence Low 0.380

Stance Advantage Smith Advantage Vs Orthodox  vs  Jr. Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

58.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.550

58.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.640

Vs Southpaw

42.0 Smith Confidence Low 0.410

42.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.640

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Smith

66.67 Jr.

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Smith

0 Jr.

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

0 Smith

33.33 Jr.

Opponent Rating Last 3

70.32 Smith

75.86 Jr.

Trend Score Last 5

80 Smith

80 Jr.

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

81.67 Smith

83.33 Jr.

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

51.67 Smith

45 Jr.

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

0 Smith

33.33 Jr.

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

70.32 Smith

75.86 Jr.

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

80 Smith

90 Jr.

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Smith stays in class.

Jr. stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Reach vs Height Delta

Smith reach: 198.0cm height: 191.0cm delta: 7.0cm

Jr. reach: 196.0cm height: 185.0cm delta: 11.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Jr..

Advantage: Jr.

Stance Interaction

Smith advantage against orthodox: 58.0

Jr. advantage against orthodox: 58.0

Interaction: low advantage Jr..

Advantage: Jr.

Style Interaction

Smith style: Boxer Puncher

Jr. style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Model: Algobetting

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