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Russell vs Santillan 23 Aug 2026 Model pick: Russell Locked prediction 72.31% ROI: 56.19% Super bantamweight Tap to expand Analysis
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Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model pick Gary Russell 72.31%

Russell odds 2.1600

Santillan odds 1.6494

Russell implied 46.30%

Santillan implied 60.63%

Market odds 2.16

Implied probability 46.30%

Expected return 1.5619

ROI 56.19%

Edge 26.02%

Lean Value

Bout Locked prediction

Locked prediction as of 2026-07-31 11:57:47 UTC

Fighter details
GR
Gary Russell

Score 0.00 · 21-1-0 (13 KO)

Full name Gary Antonio Russell

Age 33 · Rank #314 · Confidence Medium 0.568

Stance Southpaw · H/R 170cm / 170cm · US

Victor Santillan
Victor Santillan

Score 0.00 · 16-2-0 (7 KO)

Full name Victor Daniel Santillán Pérez

Age 31 · Rank #823 · Confidence Medium 0.506

Stance Southpaw · H/R 166cm / 166cm · DO

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

74.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.720

68.0 Santillan Confidence Medium 0.560

Punching Accuracy

77.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.580

70.0 Santillan Confidence Low 0.480

Hand Speed

81.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.630

72.0 Santillan Confidence Low 0.450

Pace Pressure

70.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.560

69.0 Santillan Confidence Low 0.490

Defensive Skill

78.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.620

67.0 Santillan Confidence Low 0.470

Distance Footwork Control

79.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.610

71.0 Santillan Confidence Medium 0.500

Ring IQ Adaptability

76.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.590

73.0 Santillan Confidence Medium 0.530

Counter Punching

75.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.550

66.0 Santillan Confidence Low 0.410

Chin

73.0 Russell Confidence Low 0.460

74.0 Santillan Confidence Medium 0.520

Cardio Engine

77.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.570

75.0 Santillan Confidence Medium 0.580

Style Profile Russell: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer  vs  Santillan: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

12.0 Russell Confidence Low 0.420

18.0 Santillan Confidence Low 0.390

Out-Boxer

22.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.550

32.0 Santillan Confidence Medium 0.580

Power Slugger

18.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.500

10.0 Santillan Confidence Medium 0.530

Boxer-Puncher

36.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.660

30.0 Santillan Confidence Medium 0.620

Counter-Puncher

12.0 Russell Confidence Low 0.350

10.0 Santillan Confidence Very Low 0.240

Stance Interaction Russell vs southpaw  ·  Santillan vs southpaw Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

68.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.640

72.0 Santillan Confidence Medium 0.630

Vs Southpaw

32.0 Russell Confidence Medium 0.640

28.0 Santillan Confidence Medium 0.630

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Russell

66.67 Santillan

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Russell

66.67 Santillan

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Russell

66.67 Santillan

Opponent Rating Last 3

56.95 Russell

53.59 Santillan

Trend Score Last 5

80 Russell

70 Santillan

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

83.33 Russell

80 Santillan

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

48.25 Russell

66.67 Santillan

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Russell

66.67 Santillan

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

56.95 Russell

53.59 Santillan

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

90 Russell

85 Santillan

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Russell moves down 1 class.

Santillan stays in class.

Interaction: low advantage Santillan.

Advantage: Santillan

Height Reach Delta

Russell height: 170.0cm reach: 170.0cm

Santillan height: 166.0cm reach: 166.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Russell.

Advantage: Russell +8.0cm

Stance Interaction

Russell vs southpaw: 32.0

Santillan vs southpaw: 28.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Russell style: Boxer Puncher

Santillan style: Out Boxer

Interaction: medium advantage Russell.

Advantage: Russell

Model: height reach delta

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