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Hayden vs McGrail 18 Apr 2026 Model lean: McGrail Custom 96.03% ROI: 28.04% Super bantamweight Tap to expand Analysis
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Using shared fighter weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model lean Joseph McGrail 96.03%

Hayden odds 3.1500

McGrail odds 1.3333

Hayden implied 31.75%

McGrail implied 75.00%

Market odds 1.3333

Implied probability 75.00%

Expected return 1.2804

ROI 28.04%

Edge 21.03%

Lean Value

Bout Custom

Odds updated 2026-04-18 14:18:22 UTC

Fighter details
AH
Aaron Hayden

Score 3.42 · 10-0-0 (2 KO)

Full name Aaron Hayden

Age N/A · Rank Unranked · Confidence N/A

Stance Orthodox · H/R N/A / N/A · GB

JM
Joseph McGrail

Score 56.53 · 13-0-0 (6 KO)

Full name Joseph McGrail

Age N/A · Rank #521 · Confidence Low 0.419

Stance Southpaw · H/R 170cm / 160cm · GB

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

71.0 McGrail Confidence Medium 0.560

Punching Accuracy

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

74.0 McGrail Confidence Low 0.450

Hand Speed

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

68.0 McGrail Confidence Low 0.340

Pace Pressure

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

69.0 McGrail Confidence Low 0.400

Defensive Skill

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

67.0 McGrail Confidence Low 0.330

Distance Footwork Control

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

66.0 McGrail Confidence Low 0.310

Ring IQ Adaptability

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

72.0 McGrail Confidence Low 0.420

Counter Punching

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

65.0 McGrail Confidence Low 0.280

Chin

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

70.0 McGrail Confidence Low 0.270

Cardio Engine

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

73.0 McGrail Confidence Low 0.430

Style Profile Hayden:  vs  McGrail: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

18.0 McGrail Confidence Low 0.370

Out-Boxer

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

26.0 McGrail Confidence Low 0.480

Power Slugger

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

12.0 McGrail Confidence Low 0.420

Boxer-Puncher

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

34.0 McGrail Confidence Medium 0.580

Counter-Puncher

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

10.0 McGrail Confidence Very Low 0.240

Stance Interaction Hayden vs southpaw  ·  McGrail vs orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

74.0 McGrail Confidence Medium 0.620

Vs Southpaw

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

26.0 McGrail Confidence Medium 0.620

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Hayden

100 McGrail

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Hayden

66.67 McGrail

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Hayden

33.33 McGrail

Opponent Rating Last 3

57.19 Hayden

50.33 McGrail

Trend Score Last 5

80 Hayden

100 McGrail

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

83.33 Hayden

100 McGrail

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

6.25 Hayden

83.33 McGrail

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Hayden

33.33 McGrail

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

57.19 Hayden

50.33 McGrail

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

90 Hayden

100 McGrail

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Hayden stays in class.

McGrail stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Hayden height: N/A reach: N/A

McGrail height: 170.0cm reach: 160.0cm

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Stance Interaction

Hayden vs southpaw: N/A

McGrail vs orthodox: 74.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Hayden style:

McGrail style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Model: FiteQuant

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