Aaron Hayden vs Joseph McGrail

Data as of: 2026-04-20 12:34:54 UTC

Matchup weight class

No persisted bout weight class found. Using shared fighter division: Super bantamweight.

Hayden vs McGrail 18 Apr 2026 Winner: McGrail Custom 98.16% ROI: 30.88% Tap to expand

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Matchup weight class

No persisted bout weight class found. Using shared fighter division: Super bantamweight.

Bout details

Hayden odds 3.1500

McGrail odds 1.3333

Hayden implied 31.75%

McGrail implied 75.00%

Pick odds 1.3333

Pick implied 75.00%

Expected return 1.3088

ROI 30.88%

Edge 23.16%

Lean Value

2026-04-19 18:18:18 UTC

Fighter details

Aaron Hayden

Score 0.00 · 10-0-0 (2 KO)

Age N/A · Rank #453 · Confidence N/A

Stance Orthodox · H/R N/A / N/A · GB

Joseph McGrail

Score 66.31 · 13-0-0 (6 KO)

Age 23 · Rank #159 · Confidence Medium 0.528

Stance Orthodox · H/R 170cm / 160cm · GB

Aaron Hayden

Age: N/A
Fighter rank: #453
Current model score: 0.00
Fighter confidence: N/A
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: N/A / N/A
Nationality: GB
Career snapshot: 10-0-0 (2 KO)

18 Apr 2026

Projected Win Split

Winner

McGrail

Custom

2% Hayden

98% McGrail

Win probability: 98.16%
Market odds: 1.3333
Implied probability: 75.00%
Expected ROI (1u): 30.88%
Value edge: 23.16%
Lean assessment: Value

2026-04-19 18:18:18 UTC

Joseph McGrail

Age: 23
Fighter rank: #159
Current model score: 66.31
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.528
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 170cm / 160cm
Nationality: GB
Career snapshot: 13-0-0 (6 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

74.0 McGrail Confidence Medium 0.700

Punching Accuracy

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

77.0 McGrail Confidence Medium 0.630

Hand Speed

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

78.0 McGrail Confidence Medium 0.560

Pace Pressure

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

73.0 McGrail Confidence Medium 0.610

Defensive Skill

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

75.0 McGrail Confidence Medium 0.580

Distance Footwork Control

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

76.0 McGrail Confidence Medium 0.570

Ring Iq Adaptability

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

79.0 McGrail Confidence Medium 0.620

Counter Punching

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

72.0 McGrail Confidence Low 0.490

Chin

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

68.0 McGrail Confidence Low 0.370

Cardio Engine

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

77.0 McGrail Confidence Medium 0.640

Style Profile Hayden: vs McGrail: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

18.0 McGrail Confidence Low 0.430

Out Boxer

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

26.0 McGrail Confidence Medium 0.570

Power Slugger

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

12.0 McGrail Confidence Medium 0.500

Boxer Puncher

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

34.0 McGrail Confidence Medium 0.660

Counter Puncher

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

10.0 McGrail Confidence Low 0.290

Stance Advantage Hayden Advantage Vs Orthodox vs McGrail Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

64.0 McGrail Confidence Low 0.430

Vs Southpaw

N/A Hayden Confidence No Data

36.0 McGrail Confidence Low 0.320

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Hayden Confidence High 1.000

100 McGrail Confidence High 1.000

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Hayden Confidence High 1.000

33.33 McGrail Confidence High 1.000

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Hayden Confidence High 1.000

66.67 McGrail Confidence High 1.000

Opponent Rating Last 3

57.19 Hayden Confidence High 1.000

53.3 McGrail Confidence High 1.000

Trend Score Last 5

80 Hayden Confidence High 1.000

100 McGrail Confidence High 1.000

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

83.33 Hayden Confidence High 1.000

100 McGrail Confidence High 1.000

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

6.25 Hayden Confidence High 1.000

41.67 McGrail Confidence High 1.000

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Hayden Confidence High 1.000

66.67 McGrail Confidence High 1.000

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

57.19 Hayden Confidence High 1.000

53.3 McGrail Confidence High 1.000

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

90 Hayden Confidence High 1.000

100 McGrail Confidence High 1.000

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Hayden stays in class.

McGrail stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Reach vs Height Delta

Hayden reach: N/A height: N/A delta: N/A

McGrail reach: 160.0cm height: 170.0cm delta: -10.0cm

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Stance Interaction

Hayden advantage against mixed stances: N/A

McGrail advantage against orthodox: 64.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Hayden style:

McGrail style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral