Leon Hughes vs Mario Vergiev

Data as of: 2026-09-04 06:39:48 UTC Custom

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using shared fighter weight class for matchup factors.

Hughes vs Vergiev 06 Jun 2026 Model lean: Hughes Custom 53.27% ROI: -42.95% Light heavyweight Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using shared fighter weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model lean Leon Hughes 53.27%

Hughes odds 1.0710

Vergiev odds 9.0000

Hughes implied 93.37%

Vergiev implied 11.11%

Market odds 1.071

Implied probability 93.37%

Expected return 0.5705

ROI -42.95%

Edge -40.11%

Lean No Value

Bout Custom

Odds updated 2026-06-06 00:30:03 UTC

Fighter details

Leon Hughes

Score 47.08 · 4-0-0 (3 KO)

Full name Leon Hughes

Age N/A · Rank #706 · Confidence Low 0.335

Stance N/A · H/R 191cm / 191cm · GB

Mario Vergiev

Score 48.90 · 8-5-0 (5 KO)

Full name Mario Vergiev

Age N/A · Rank #688 · Confidence Low 0.460

Stance Orthodox · H/R 192cm / 185cm · N/A

Leon Hughes

Full name: Leon Hughes
Age: N/A
Fighter rank: #706
Current model score: 47.08
Fighter confidence: Low 0.335
Stance: N/A
Height/Reach: 191cm / 191cm
Nationality: GB
Career snapshot: 4-0-0 (3 KO)

06 Jun 2026

Projected Win Split

Model lean

Hughes

Custom

53% Hughes

47% Vergiev

Model lean: Leon Hughes 53.27%
Win probability: 53.27%
Market odds: 1.071
Implied probability: 93.37%
Expected ROI (1u): -42.95%
Value edge: -40.11%
Lean assessment: No Value

Odds updated 2026-06-06 00:30:03 UTC

Mario Vergiev

Full name: Mario Vergiev
Age: N/A
Fighter rank: #688
Current model score: 48.90
Fighter confidence: Low 0.460
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 192cm / 185cm
Nationality: N/A
Career snapshot: 8-5-0 (5 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

77.0 Hughes Confidence Medium 0.630

67.0 Vergiev Confidence Medium 0.740

Punching Accuracy

62.0 Hughes Confidence Low 0.340

56.0 Vergiev Confidence Low 0.470

Hand Speed

60.0 Hughes Confidence Low 0.250

58.0 Vergiev Confidence Low 0.350

Pace Pressure

66.0 Hughes Confidence Low 0.380

61.0 Vergiev Confidence Medium 0.500

Defensive Skill

56.0 Hughes Confidence Very Low 0.230

45.0 Vergiev Confidence Medium 0.630

Distance Footwork Control

58.0 Hughes Confidence Very Low 0.240

48.0 Vergiev Confidence Low 0.460

Ring IQ Adaptability

61.0 Hughes Confidence Low 0.300

50.0 Vergiev Confidence Low 0.450

Counter Punching

55.0 Hughes Confidence Very Low 0.210

47.0 Vergiev Confidence Low 0.320

Chin

54.0 Hughes Confidence Very Low 0.180

49.0 Vergiev Confidence Medium 0.600

Cardio Engine

57.0 Hughes Confidence Very Low 0.220

55.0 Vergiev Confidence Low 0.430

Style Profile Hughes: Power Slugger Boxer-Puncher vs Vergiev: Power Slugger Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

15.0 Hughes Confidence Low 0.270

14.0 Vergiev Confidence Low 0.330

Out-Boxer

18.0 Hughes Confidence Low 0.400

18.0 Vergiev Confidence Low 0.380

Power Slugger

31.0 Hughes Confidence Medium 0.620

30.0 Vergiev Confidence Medium 0.630

Boxer-Puncher

28.0 Hughes Confidence Medium 0.560

28.0 Vergiev Confidence Medium 0.570

Counter-Puncher

8.0 Hughes Confidence Very Low 0.200

10.0 Vergiev Confidence Very Low 0.240

Stance Interaction Hughes vs orthodox · Vergiev vs unknown stance Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

66.0 Hughes Confidence Low 0.330

71.0 Vergiev Confidence Low 0.360

Vs Southpaw

34.0 Hughes Confidence Low 0.330

29.0 Vergiev Confidence Low 0.360

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Hughes

33.33 Vergiev

Ko Rate Last 3

66.67 Hughes

33.33 Vergiev

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

100 Hughes

100 Vergiev

Opponent Rating Last 3

27.42 Hughes

78.18 Vergiev

Trend Score Last 5

100 Hughes

60 Vergiev

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Hughes

48.48 Vergiev

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

66.67 Hughes

34.85 Vergiev

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

100 Hughes

100 Vergiev

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

27.42 Hughes

78.18 Vergiev

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Hughes

60 Vergiev

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Hughes stays in class.

Vergiev stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Hughes height: 191.0cm reach: 191.0cm

Vergiev height: 192.0cm reach: 185.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Hughes.

Advantage: Hughes +5.0cm

Stance Interaction

Hughes vs orthodox: 66.0

Vergiev vs unknown stance: N/A

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Hughes style: Power Slugger

Vergiev style: Power Slugger

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral