Leon Hughes vs Mario Vergiev

Data as of: 2026-06-06 01:37:26 UTC Locked prediction

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Hughes vs Vergiev TODAY Model pick: Hughes Locked prediction 73.55% ROI: -21.23% Light heavyweight Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model pick Leon Hughes 73.55%

Hughes odds 1.0710

Vergiev odds 9.0000

Hughes implied 93.37%

Vergiev implied 11.11%

Pick odds 1.071

Pick implied 93.37%

Expected return 0.7877

ROI -21.23%

Edge -19.82%

Lean No Value

Bout Locked prediction

Locked prediction 2026-06-06 00:52:31 UTC

Fighter details

Leon Hughes

Score 45.31 · 3-0-0 (2 KO)

Full name Leon Hughes

Age 21 · Rank #541 · Confidence Low 0.326

Stance N/A · H/R 191cm / 191cm · GB

Mario Vergiev

Score 49.91 · 8-4-0 (5 KO)

Full name Mario Vergiev

Age N/A · Rank #508 · Confidence Low 0.411

Stance N/A · H/R 178cm / 182cm · N/A

Leon Hughes

Full name: Leon Hughes
Age: 21
Fighter rank: #541
Current model score: 45.31
Fighter confidence: Low 0.326
Stance: N/A
Height/Reach: 191cm / 191cm
Nationality: GB
Career snapshot: 3-0-0 (2 KO)

TODAY

Projected Win Split

Model pick

Hughes

Locked prediction

74% Hughes

26% Vergiev

Model pick: Leon Hughes 73.55%
Win probability: 73.55%
Market odds: 1.071
Implied probability: 93.37%
Expected ROI (1u): -21.23%
Value edge: -19.82%
Lean assessment: No Value

Locked prediction 2026-06-06 00:52:31 UTC

Mario Vergiev

Full name: Mario Vergiev
Age: N/A
Fighter rank: #508
Current model score: 49.91
Fighter confidence: Low 0.411
Stance: N/A
Height/Reach: 178cm / 182cm
Nationality: N/A
Career snapshot: 8-4-0 (5 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

68.0 Hughes Confidence Medium 0.560

72.0 Vergiev Confidence Medium 0.670

Punching Accuracy

60.0 Hughes Confidence Low 0.420

61.0 Vergiev Confidence Low 0.450

Hand Speed

58.0 Hughes Confidence Low 0.340

58.0 Vergiev Confidence Low 0.320

Pace Pressure

61.0 Hughes Confidence Low 0.430

62.0 Vergiev Confidence Low 0.430

Defensive Skill

54.0 Hughes Confidence Low 0.280

50.0 Vergiev Confidence Low 0.380

Distance Footwork Control

55.0 Hughes Confidence Low 0.290

53.0 Vergiev Confidence Low 0.350

Ring Iq Adaptability

57.0 Hughes Confidence Low 0.320

56.0 Vergiev Confidence Low 0.400

Counter Punching

52.0 Hughes Confidence Very Low 0.230

49.0 Vergiev Confidence Low 0.280

Chin

56.0 Hughes Confidence Very Low 0.240

47.0 Vergiev Confidence Medium 0.500

Cardio Engine

59.0 Hughes Confidence Low 0.360

55.0 Vergiev Confidence Low 0.410

Style Profile Hughes: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer vs Vergiev: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

18.0 Hughes Confidence Low 0.260

18.0 Vergiev Confidence Low 0.310

Out Boxer

24.0 Hughes Confidence Low 0.300

14.0 Vergiev Confidence Low 0.340

Power Slugger

22.0 Hughes Confidence Low 0.340

28.0 Vergiev Confidence Medium 0.560

Boxer Puncher

28.0 Hughes Confidence Low 0.380

32.0 Vergiev Confidence Medium 0.600

Counter Puncher

8.0 Hughes Confidence Very Low 0.200

8.0 Vergiev Confidence Very Low 0.230

Stance Advantage Hughes Advantage Vs Orthodox vs Vergiev Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

64.0 Hughes Confidence Low 0.300

62.0 Vergiev Confidence Low 0.380

Vs Southpaw

36.0 Hughes Confidence Low 0.300

38.0 Vergiev Confidence Low 0.380

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Hughes

100 Vergiev

Ko Rate Last 3

66.67 Hughes

66.67 Vergiev

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Hughes

66.67 Vergiev

Opponent Rating Last 3

38.67 Hughes

40 Vergiev

Trend Score Last 5

100 Hughes

85 Vergiev

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Hughes

100 Vergiev

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

66.67 Hughes

66.67 Vergiev

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Hughes

66.67 Vergiev

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

38.67 Hughes

43.39 Vergiev

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Hughes

85 Vergiev

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Hughes stays in class.

Vergiev moves up 4 classes.

Interaction: medium advantage Hughes.

Advantage: Hughes

Height Reach Delta

Hughes height: 191.0cm reach: 191.0cm

Vergiev height: 178.0cm reach: 182.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Hughes.

Advantage: Hughes +22.0cm

Stance Interaction

Hughes vs unknown stance: N/A

Vergiev vs unknown stance: N/A

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Hughes style: Boxer Puncher

Vergiev style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral