OWN YOUR EDGE
Chacon vs Santana-Guerrero 17 May 2026 Winner: Santana-Guerrero Custom 79.94% ROI: -14.39% Tap to expand Analysis
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Using shared fighter weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Chacon odds 7.5000

Santana-Guerrero odds 1.0710

Chacon implied 13.33%

Santana-Guerrero implied 93.37%

Pick odds 1.071

Pick implied 93.37%

Expected return 0.8561

ROI -14.39%

Edge -13.43%

Lean No Value

2026-05-12 00:30:03 UTC

Fighter details
CC
Cristian Chacon

Score 53.59 · 8-2-2 (8 KO)

Full name Cristian Jesus Cruz Chacón

Age 29 · Rank #402 · Confidence Low 0.461

Stance Orthodox · H/R 166cm / 169cm · MX

YS
Yan Santana-Guerrero

Score 67.03 · 16-0-0 (13 KO)

Full name Yan Carlos Santana Guerrero

Age 26 · Rank #149 · Confidence Medium 0.538

Stance Orthodox · H/R 173cm / 183cm · DO

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

67.0 Chacon Confidence Medium 0.620

84.0 Santana-Guerrero Confidence High 0.780

Punching Accuracy

61.0 Chacon Confidence Low 0.450

74.0 Santana-Guerrero Confidence Medium 0.560

Hand Speed

60.0 Chacon Confidence Low 0.360

72.0 Santana-Guerrero Confidence Low 0.460

Pace Pressure

66.0 Chacon Confidence Medium 0.550

77.0 Santana-Guerrero Confidence Medium 0.610

Defensive Skill

57.0 Chacon Confidence Low 0.440

71.0 Santana-Guerrero Confidence Medium 0.540

Distance Footwork Control

58.0 Chacon Confidence Low 0.420

76.0 Santana-Guerrero Confidence Medium 0.580

Ring Iq Adaptability

60.0 Chacon Confidence Low 0.450

75.0 Santana-Guerrero Confidence Medium 0.620

Counter Punching

54.0 Chacon Confidence Low 0.310

69.0 Santana-Guerrero Confidence Low 0.420

Chin

66.0 Chacon Confidence Medium 0.530

73.0 Santana-Guerrero Confidence Low 0.450

Cardio Engine

71.0 Chacon Confidence Medium 0.630

78.0 Santana-Guerrero Confidence Medium 0.630

Style Profile Chacon: Boxer-Puncher Pressure Swarmer  vs  Santana-Guerrero: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

20.0 Chacon Confidence Low 0.330

18.0 Santana-Guerrero Confidence Low 0.420

Out Boxer

14.0 Chacon Confidence Low 0.360

16.0 Santana-Guerrero Confidence Medium 0.500

Power Slugger

18.0 Chacon Confidence Low 0.420

24.0 Santana-Guerrero Confidence Medium 0.630

Boxer Puncher

38.0 Chacon Confidence Medium 0.590

34.0 Santana-Guerrero Confidence Medium 0.660

Counter Puncher

10.0 Chacon Confidence Very Low 0.220

8.0 Santana-Guerrero Confidence Low 0.280

Stance Advantage Chacon Advantage Vs Southpaw  vs  Santana-Guerrero Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

42.0 Chacon Confidence Medium 0.580

62.0 Santana-Guerrero Confidence Medium 0.580

Vs Southpaw

58.0 Chacon Confidence Medium 0.580

38.0 Santana-Guerrero Confidence Low 0.430

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Chacon

100 Santana-Guerrero

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Chacon

33.33 Santana-Guerrero

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

100 Chacon

66.67 Santana-Guerrero

Opponent Rating Last 3

58.42 Chacon

67.49 Santana-Guerrero

Trend Score Last 5

73.75 Chacon

100 Santana-Guerrero

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

66.67 Chacon

100 Santana-Guerrero

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

27.78 Chacon

62.82 Santana-Guerrero

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

100 Chacon

66.67 Santana-Guerrero

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

58.42 Chacon

67.49 Santana-Guerrero

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

81.88 Chacon

100 Santana-Guerrero

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Chacon stays in class.

Santana-Guerrero stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Reach vs Height Delta

Chacon reach: 169.0cm height: 166.0cm delta: 3.0cm

Santana-Guerrero reach: 183.0cm height: 173.0cm delta: 10.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Santana-Guerrero.

Advantage: Santana-Guerrero

Stance Interaction

Chacon advantage against southpaw: 58.0

Santana-Guerrero advantage against orthodox: 62.0

Interaction: medium advantage Santana-Guerrero.

Advantage: Santana-Guerrero

Style Interaction

Chacon style: Boxer Puncher

Santana-Guerrero style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Model: FiteQuant

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