Kyonosuke Kameda vs Sebastian Hernandez

Data as of: 2026-09-24 08:19:35 UTC Custom

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using shared fighter weight class for matchup factors.

Kameda vs Hernandez 23 Sep 2026 Model lean: Kameda Custom 67.70% ROI: 238.48% Featherweight Tap to expand Analysis

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Matchup weight class

Using shared fighter weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model lean Kyonosuke Kameda 67.70%

Kameda odds 5.0000

Hernandez odds 1.1538

Kameda implied 20.00%

Hernandez implied 86.67%

Market odds 5

Implied probability 20.00%

Expected return 3.3848

ROI 238.48%

Edge 47.70%

Lean Value

Bout Custom

Odds updated 2026-09-11 12:27:13 UTC

Fighter details

Kyonosuke Kameda

Score 56.84 · 16-6-2 (9 KO)

Full name Kyonosuke Kameda

Age 27 · Rank #563 · Confidence Medium 0.542

Stance Orthodox · H/R 176cm / 179cm · JP

Sebastian Hernandez

Score 64.11 · 22-1-0 (19 KO)

Full name Sebastian Hernandez Reyes

Age 25 · Rank #279 · Confidence Low 0.475

Stance Orthodox · H/R 175cm / 165cm · MX

Kyonosuke Kameda

Full name: Kyonosuke Kameda
Age: 27
Fighter rank: #563
Current model score: 56.84
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.542
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 176cm / 179cm
Nationality: JP
Career snapshot: 16-6-2 (9 KO)

23 Sep 2026

Projected Win Split

Model lean

Kameda

Custom

68% Kameda

32% Hernandez

Model lean: Kyonosuke Kameda 67.70%
Win probability: 67.70%
Market odds: 5
Implied probability: 20.00%
Expected ROI (1u): 238.48%
Value edge: 47.70%
Lean assessment: Value

Odds updated 2026-09-11 12:27:13 UTC

Sebastian Hernandez

Full name: Sebastian Hernandez Reyes
Age: 25
Fighter rank: #279
Current model score: 64.11
Fighter confidence: Low 0.475
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 175cm / 165cm
Nationality: MX
Career snapshot: 22-1-0 (19 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

73.0 Kameda Confidence High 0.750

88.0 Hernandez Confidence High 0.770

Punching Accuracy

64.0 Kameda Confidence Low 0.480

74.0 Hernandez Confidence Low 0.460

Hand Speed

67.0 Kameda Confidence Low 0.420

72.0 Hernandez Confidence Low 0.380

Pace Pressure

69.0 Kameda Confidence Medium 0.560

78.0 Hernandez Confidence Medium 0.550

Defensive Skill

58.0 Kameda Confidence Medium 0.580

67.0 Hernandez Confidence Low 0.410

Distance Footwork Control

62.0 Kameda Confidence Low 0.470

66.0 Hernandez Confidence Low 0.390

Ring IQ Adaptability

66.0 Kameda Confidence Medium 0.600

71.0 Hernandez Confidence Low 0.490

Counter Punching

60.0 Kameda Confidence Low 0.370

64.0 Hernandez Confidence Low 0.330

Chin

57.0 Kameda Confidence Medium 0.620

73.0 Hernandez Confidence Low 0.440

Cardio Engine

71.0 Kameda Confidence Medium 0.690

76.0 Hernandez Confidence Medium 0.580

Style Profile Kameda: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer vs Hernandez: Power Slugger Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

18.0 Kameda Confidence Low 0.370

18.0 Hernandez Confidence Low 0.360

Out-Boxer

27.0 Kameda Confidence Medium 0.580

12.0 Hernandez Confidence Low 0.330

Power Slugger

16.0 Kameda Confidence Medium 0.510

34.0 Hernandez Confidence Medium 0.620

Boxer-Puncher

31.0 Kameda Confidence Medium 0.690

28.0 Hernandez Confidence Medium 0.560

Counter-Puncher

8.0 Kameda Confidence Low 0.280

8.0 Hernandez Confidence Very Low 0.240

Stance Interaction Kameda vs orthodox · Hernandez vs orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

64.0 Kameda Confidence Medium 0.620

42.0 Hernandez Confidence Medium 0.580

Vs Southpaw

36.0 Kameda Confidence Medium 0.620

58.0 Hernandez Confidence Medium 0.580

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

33.33 Kameda

66.67 Hernandez

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Kameda

33.33 Hernandez

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

100 Kameda

100 Hernandez

Opponent Rating Last 3

74.32 Kameda

63.41 Hernandez

Trend Score Last 5

20 Kameda

80 Hernandez

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

50.76 Kameda

83.33 Hernandez

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

2.27 Kameda

61.67 Hernandez

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

100 Kameda

100 Hernandez

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

74.32 Kameda

63.41 Hernandez

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

60 Kameda

90 Hernandez

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Kameda stays in class.

Hernandez stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Kameda height: 176.0cm reach: 179.0cm

Hernandez height: 175.0cm reach: 165.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Kameda.

Advantage: Kameda +15.0cm

Stance Interaction

Kameda vs orthodox: 64.0

Hernandez vs orthodox: 42.0

Interaction: medium advantage Kameda.

Advantage: Kameda

Style Interaction

Kameda style: Boxer Puncher

Hernandez style: Power Slugger

Interaction: medium advantage Kameda.

Advantage: Kameda