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Gonzalez vs Moreno 26 Jul 2026 Model pick: Moreno Locked prediction 68.40% ROI: 3.29% Welterweight Tap to expand Analysis
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Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model pick Emiliano Moreno 68.40%

Gonzalez odds 2.4400

Moreno odds 1.5102

Gonzalez implied 40.98%

Moreno implied 66.22%

Market odds 1.5102

Implied probability 66.22%

Expected return 1.0329

ROI 3.29%

Edge 2.18%

Lean Value

Bout Locked prediction

Locked prediction as of 2026-07-23 02:16:27 UTC

Fighter details
AG
Arnold Gonzalez

Score 57.54 · 12-0-0 (9 KO)

Full name Arnold Gonzalez

Age 31 · Rank #488 · Confidence Low 0.478

Stance Orthodox · H/R 170cm / 173cm · US

EM
Emiliano Moreno

Score 56.94 · 12-1-0 (6 KO)

Full name Emiliano Benjamin Moreno

Age 21 · Rank #506 · Confidence Low 0.414

Stance N/A · H/R 180cm / 182cm · US

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

69.0 Gonzalez Confidence Medium 0.620

72.0 Moreno Confidence Medium 0.610

Punching Accuracy

66.0 Gonzalez Confidence Low 0.490

68.0 Moreno Confidence Low 0.460

Hand Speed

63.0 Gonzalez Confidence Low 0.380

66.0 Moreno Confidence Low 0.370

Pace Pressure

68.0 Gonzalez Confidence Medium 0.500

67.0 Moreno Confidence Low 0.460

Defensive Skill

64.0 Gonzalez Confidence Low 0.420

62.0 Moreno Confidence Low 0.330

Distance Footwork Control

65.0 Gonzalez Confidence Low 0.410

64.0 Moreno Confidence Low 0.340

Ring IQ Adaptability

70.0 Gonzalez Confidence Medium 0.520

69.0 Moreno Confidence Low 0.490

Counter Punching

61.0 Gonzalez Confidence Low 0.340

60.0 Moreno Confidence Low 0.270

Chin

67.0 Gonzalez Confidence Low 0.440

61.0 Moreno Confidence Low 0.260

Cardio Engine

72.0 Gonzalez Confidence Medium 0.580

71.0 Moreno Confidence Medium 0.560

Style Profile Gonzalez: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer  vs  Moreno: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

18.0 Gonzalez Confidence Low 0.440

18.0 Moreno Confidence Low 0.330

Out-Boxer

24.0 Gonzalez Confidence Medium 0.550

24.0 Moreno Confidence Low 0.480

Power Slugger

14.0 Gonzalez Confidence Medium 0.500

14.0 Moreno Confidence Low 0.390

Boxer-Puncher

34.0 Gonzalez Confidence Medium 0.680

34.0 Moreno Confidence Medium 0.630

Counter-Puncher

10.0 Gonzalez Confidence Low 0.280

10.0 Moreno Confidence Very Low 0.210

Stance Interaction Gonzalez vs unknown stance  ·  Moreno vs orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

63.0 Gonzalez Confidence Medium 0.570

62.0 Moreno Confidence Low 0.420

Vs Southpaw

37.0 Gonzalez Confidence Low 0.410

38.0 Moreno Confidence Low 0.420

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Gonzalez

100 Moreno

Ko Rate Last 3

66.67 Gonzalez

66.67 Moreno

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

0 Gonzalez

33.33 Moreno

Opponent Rating Last 3

45 Gonzalez

45.33 Moreno

Trend Score Last 5

100 Gonzalez

100 Moreno

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Gonzalez

100 Moreno

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

66.67 Gonzalez

66.67 Moreno

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

0 Gonzalez

33.33 Moreno

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

46.44 Gonzalez

45.33 Moreno

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Gonzalez

100 Moreno

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Gonzalez stays in class.

Moreno moves down 1 class.

Interaction: low advantage Gonzalez.

Advantage: Gonzalez

Height Reach Delta

Gonzalez height: 170.0cm reach: 173.0cm

Moreno height: 180.0cm reach: 181.6cm

Interaction: high advantage Moreno.

Advantage: Moreno +18.6cm

Stance Interaction

Gonzalez vs unknown stance: N/A

Moreno vs orthodox: 62.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Gonzalez style: Boxer Puncher

Moreno style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Model: FiteQuant

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