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Tapia vs Ruiz 26 Sep 2026 Model pick: Tapia Locked prediction 63.14% ROI: -14.31% Middleweight Tap to expand Analysis
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Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model pick Cesar Tapia 63.14%

Tapia odds 1.3571

Ruiz odds 3.0000

Tapia implied 73.69%

Ruiz implied 33.33%

Market odds 1.3571

Implied probability 73.69%

Expected return 0.8569

ROI -14.31%

Edge -10.55%

Lean No Value

Bout Locked prediction

Locked prediction as of 2026-09-24 08:12:49 UTC

Fighter details
CT
Cesar Tapia

Score 62.45 · 18-0-1 (11 KO)

Full name Cesar Mateo Tapia

Age N/A · Rank #334 · Confidence Medium 0.524

Stance Orthodox · H/R 183cm / 185cm · AU

LR
Leo Ruiz

Score 56.28 · 17-1-0 (9 KO)

Full name Leonardo Ruiz Acevedo

Age 27 · Rank #572 · Confidence Medium 0.512

Stance Orthodox · H/R 182cm / 185cm · US

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

77.0 Tapia Confidence Medium 0.720

73.0 Ruiz Confidence Medium 0.670

Punching Accuracy

70.0 Tapia Confidence Medium 0.560

69.0 Ruiz Confidence Medium 0.500

Hand Speed

66.0 Tapia Confidence Low 0.420

66.0 Ruiz Confidence Low 0.380

Pace Pressure

71.0 Tapia Confidence Medium 0.550

68.0 Ruiz Confidence Medium 0.500

Defensive Skill

72.0 Tapia Confidence Medium 0.580

55.0 Ruiz Confidence Medium 0.620

Distance Footwork Control

69.0 Tapia Confidence Medium 0.500

64.0 Ruiz Confidence Low 0.460

Ring IQ Adaptability

75.0 Tapia Confidence Medium 0.630

65.0 Ruiz Confidence Low 0.480

Counter Punching

64.0 Tapia Confidence Low 0.400

60.0 Ruiz Confidence Low 0.330

Chin

73.0 Tapia Confidence Low 0.470

50.0 Ruiz Confidence Medium 0.580

Cardio Engine

74.0 Tapia Confidence Medium 0.620

71.0 Ruiz Confidence Medium 0.610

Style Profile Tapia: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger  vs  Ruiz: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

18.0 Tapia Confidence Low 0.450

18.0 Ruiz Confidence Low 0.490

Out-Boxer

17.0 Tapia Confidence Medium 0.500

26.0 Ruiz Confidence Medium 0.620

Power Slugger

21.0 Tapia Confidence Medium 0.580

14.0 Ruiz Confidence Medium 0.580

Boxer-Puncher

34.0 Tapia Confidence Medium 0.690

34.0 Ruiz Confidence Medium 0.720

Counter-Puncher

10.0 Tapia Confidence Low 0.320

8.0 Ruiz Confidence Low 0.310

Stance Interaction Tapia vs orthodox  ·  Ruiz vs orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

72.0 Tapia Confidence Medium 0.580

62.0 Ruiz Confidence Low 0.430

Vs Southpaw

28.0 Tapia Confidence Low 0.330

38.0 Ruiz Confidence Low 0.430

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Tapia

66.67 Ruiz

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Tapia

33.33 Ruiz

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

0 Tapia

33.33 Ruiz

Opponent Rating Last 3

69.81 Tapia

59.69 Ruiz

Trend Score Last 5

90 Tapia

80 Ruiz

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

83.33 Tapia

83.33 Ruiz

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

47.92 Tapia

43.33 Ruiz

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

0 Tapia

33.33 Ruiz

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

69.81 Tapia

59.69 Ruiz

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

95 Tapia

90 Ruiz

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Tapia stays in class.

Ruiz stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Tapia height: 183.0cm reach: 185.0cm

Ruiz height: 182.0cm reach: 185.0cm

Interaction: low advantage Tapia.

Advantage: Tapia +1.0cm

Stance Interaction

Tapia vs orthodox: 72.0

Ruiz vs orthodox: 62.0

Interaction: low advantage Tapia.

Advantage: Tapia

Style Interaction

Tapia style: Boxer Puncher

Ruiz style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Model: FiteQuant

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