OWN YOUR EDGE
Mercado vs Oberlton TODAY Winner: Oberlton Custom 50.33% ROI: -43.38% Tap to expand Analysis
Change fighters and profiles

Using inferred fighter weight class for this comparison. Change this if needed.

Bout details

Mercado odds 6.0000

Oberlton odds 1.1250

Mercado implied 16.67%

Oberlton implied 88.89%

Pick odds 1.125

Pick implied 88.89%

Expected return 0.5662

ROI -43.38%

Edge -38.56%

Lean No Value

2026-05-09 00:30:03 UTC

Fighter details
CM
Carlos Mercado

Score 58.75 · 22-3-0 (17 KO)

Full name Carlos Gongora Mercado

Age 37 · Rank #338 · Confidence Medium 0.559

Stance Southpaw · H/R 185cm / 183cm · EC

AO
Atif Oberlton

Score 66.78 · 15-0-0 (13 KO)

Full name Atif Oberlton

Age 27 · Rank #154 · Confidence Medium 0.507

Stance Southpaw · H/R 191cm / 185cm · US

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

82.0 Mercado Confidence High 0.760

88.0 Oberlton Confidence High 0.790

Punching Accuracy

69.0 Mercado Confidence Medium 0.580

76.0 Oberlton Confidence Medium 0.580

Hand Speed

66.0 Mercado Confidence Low 0.480

74.0 Oberlton Confidence Low 0.470

Pace Pressure

64.0 Mercado Confidence Medium 0.570

77.0 Oberlton Confidence Medium 0.610

Defensive Skill

61.0 Mercado Confidence Medium 0.580

69.0 Oberlton Confidence Low 0.430

Distance Footwork Control

60.0 Mercado Confidence Medium 0.550

73.0 Oberlton Confidence Low 0.490

Ring Iq Adaptability

63.0 Mercado Confidence Medium 0.560

75.0 Oberlton Confidence Medium 0.570

Counter Punching

71.0 Mercado Confidence Medium 0.540

71.0 Oberlton Confidence Low 0.410

Chin

74.0 Mercado Confidence Medium 0.620

68.0 Oberlton Confidence Low 0.340

Cardio Engine

72.0 Mercado Confidence Medium 0.640

74.0 Oberlton Confidence Medium 0.550

Style Profile Mercado: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger  vs  Oberlton: Power Slugger Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

12.0 Mercado Confidence Low 0.310

18.0 Oberlton Confidence Low 0.460

Out Boxer

18.0 Mercado Confidence Low 0.420

10.0 Oberlton Confidence Low 0.340

Power Slugger

30.0 Mercado Confidence Medium 0.630

39.0 Oberlton Confidence Medium 0.720

Boxer Puncher

32.0 Mercado Confidence Medium 0.660

26.0 Oberlton Confidence Medium 0.580

Counter Puncher

8.0 Mercado Confidence Very Low 0.220

7.0 Oberlton Confidence Very Low 0.240

Stance Advantage Mercado Advantage Vs Orthodox  vs  Oberlton Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

64.0 Mercado Confidence Medium 0.690

64.0 Oberlton Confidence Medium 0.630

Vs Southpaw

36.0 Mercado Confidence Medium 0.690

36.0 Oberlton Confidence Low 0.410

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

33.33 Mercado

100 Oberlton

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Mercado

100 Oberlton

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

0 Mercado

100 Oberlton

Opponent Rating Last 3

69.49 Mercado

44.67 Oberlton

Trend Score Last 5

40 Mercado

100 Oberlton

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

64.39 Mercado

100 Oberlton

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

53.03 Mercado

100 Oberlton

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

0 Mercado

100 Oberlton

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

69.49 Mercado

44.67 Oberlton

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

70 Mercado

100 Oberlton

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Mercado stays in class.

Oberlton moves down 1 classes.

Interaction: low advantage Mercado.

Advantage: Mercado

Reach vs Height Delta

Mercado reach: 183.0cm height: 185.0cm delta: -2.0cm

Oberlton reach: 185.0cm height: 191.0cm delta: -6.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Mercado.

Advantage: Mercado

Stance Interaction

Mercado advantage against orthodox: 64.0

Oberlton advantage against orthodox: 64.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Mercado style: Boxer Puncher

Oberlton style: Power Slugger

Interaction: medium advantage Mercado.

Advantage: Mercado

Model: FiteQuant

Explore models · Login