Naoya Inoue vs Junto Nakatani

Data as of: 2026-04-24 17:45:38 UTC

Matchup weight class

No persisted bout weight class found. Using inferred fighter division: Super bantamweight. Change this if needed.

Inoue vs Nakatani 02 May 2026 Winner: Inoue Custom 57.31% ROI: -29.96% Tap to expand

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

No persisted bout weight class found. Using inferred fighter division: Super bantamweight. Change this if needed.

Bout details

Inoue odds 1.2222

Nakatani odds 4.1000

Inoue implied 81.82%

Nakatani implied 24.39%

Pick odds 1.2222

Pick implied 81.82%

Expected return 0.7004

ROI -29.96%

Edge -24.51%

Lean No Value

2026-04-24 16:52:19 UTC

Fighter details

Naoya Inoue

Score 85.74 · 32-0-0 (27 KO)

Age 33 · Rank #1 · Confidence Medium 0.742

Stance Orthodox · H/R 165cm / 171cm · JP

Junto Nakatani

Score 79.22 · 32-0-0 (24 KO)

Age 28 · Rank #19 · Confidence Medium 0.670

Stance Southpaw · H/R 173cm / 174cm · JP

Naoya Inoue

Age: 33
Fighter rank: #1
Current model score: 85.74
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.742
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 165cm / 171cm
Nationality: JP
Career snapshot: 32-0-0 (27 KO)

02 May 2026

Projected Win Split

Winner

Inoue

Custom

57% Inoue

43% Nakatani

Win probability: 57.31%
Market odds: 1.2222
Implied probability: 81.82%
Expected ROI (1u): -29.96%
Value edge: -24.51%
Lean assessment: No Value

2026-04-24 16:52:19 UTC

Junto Nakatani

Age: 28
Fighter rank: #19
Current model score: 79.22
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.670
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 173cm / 174cm
Nationality: JP
Career snapshot: 32-0-0 (24 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

98.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.950

91.0 Nakatani Confidence High 0.840

Punching Accuracy

92.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.850

87.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.730

Hand Speed

94.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.840

88.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.710

Pace Pressure

88.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.790

82.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.690

Defensive Skill

86.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.730

84.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.670

Distance Footwork Control

89.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.780

85.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.680

Ring Iq Adaptability

93.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.870

89.0 Nakatani Confidence High 0.780

Counter Punching

95.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.880

86.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.660

Chin

82.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.580

83.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.580

Cardio Engine

87.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.720

85.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.720

Style Profile Inoue: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger vs Nakatani: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

12.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.640

14.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.560

Out Boxer

8.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.580

18.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.660

Power Slugger

30.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.880

23.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.720

Boxer Puncher

38.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.820

35.0 Nakatani Confidence High 0.790

Counter Puncher

12.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.600

10.0 Nakatani Confidence Low 0.470

Stance Advantage Inoue Advantage Vs Orthodox vs Nakatani Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

58.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.600

63.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.680

Vs Southpaw

42.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.500

37.0 Nakatani Confidence Low 0.450

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Inoue

100 Nakatani

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Inoue

66.67 Nakatani

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

100 Inoue

66.67 Nakatani

Opponent Rating Last 3

78.57 Inoue

65.78 Nakatani

Trend Score Last 5

100 Inoue

100 Nakatani

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Inoue

100 Nakatani

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

61.49 Inoue

71.26 Nakatani

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

100 Inoue

66.67 Nakatani

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

78.57 Inoue

65.78 Nakatani

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Inoue

100 Nakatani

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Inoue stays in class.

Nakatani moves up 1 classes.

Interaction: low advantage Nakatani.

Advantage: Nakatani

Reach vs Height Delta

Inoue reach: 171.0cm height: 165.0cm delta: 6.0cm

Nakatani reach: 174.0cm height: 173.0cm delta: 1.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Inoue.

Advantage: Inoue

Stance Interaction

Inoue advantage against orthodox: 58.0

Nakatani advantage against orthodox: 63.0

Interaction: medium advantage Nakatani.

Advantage: Nakatani

Style Interaction

Inoue style: Boxer Puncher

Nakatani style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral