Naoya Inoue vs Junto Nakatani

Data as of: 2026-09-07 07:51:09 UTC Custom

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using shared fighter weight class for matchup factors.

Inoue vs Nakatani 02 May 2026 Model lean: Nakatani Custom 52.41% ROI: 114.89% Super bantamweight Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using shared fighter weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model lean Junto Nakatani 52.41%

Inoue odds 1.2222

Nakatani odds 4.1000

Inoue implied 81.82%

Nakatani implied 24.39%

Market odds 4.1

Implied probability 24.39%

Expected return 2.1489

ROI 114.89%

Edge 28.02%

Lean Value

Bout Custom

Odds updated 2026-04-25 15:08:03 UTC

Fighter details

Naoya Inoue

Score 86.87 · 33-0-0 (27 KO)

Full name Naoya Inoue

Age 33 · Rank #2 · Confidence High 0.789

Stance Orthodox · H/R 165cm / 171cm · JP

The Ring Super bantamweight WBA Super bantamweight WBC Super bantamweight IBF Super bantamweight WBO Super bantamweight

Junto Nakatani

Score 76.88 · 32-1-0 (24 KO)

Full name Junto Nakatani

Age 28 · Rank #22 · Confidence Medium 0.681

Stance Southpaw · H/R 173cm / 174cm · JP

The Ring Bantamweight

Naoya Inoue

Full name: Naoya Inoue
Age: 33
Fighter rank: #2
Current model score: 86.87
Fighter confidence: High 0.789
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 165cm / 171cm
Nationality: JP
Career snapshot: 33-0-0 (27 KO)

World titles

The Ring Super bantamweight WBA Super bantamweight WBC Super bantamweight IBF Super bantamweight WBO Super bantamweight

02 May 2026

Projected Win Split

Model lean

Nakatani

Custom

48% Inoue

52% Nakatani

Model lean: Junto Nakatani 52.41%
Win probability: 52.41%
Market odds: 4.1
Implied probability: 24.39%
Expected ROI (1u): 114.89%
Value edge: 28.02%
Lean assessment: Value

Odds updated 2026-04-25 15:08:03 UTC

Junto Nakatani

Full name: Junto Nakatani
Age: 28
Fighter rank: #22
Current model score: 76.88
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.681
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 173cm / 174cm
Nationality: JP
Career snapshot: 32-1-0 (24 KO)

World titles

The Ring Bantamweight

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

98.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.970

90.0 Nakatani Confidence High 0.860

Punching Accuracy

93.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.900

85.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.730

Hand Speed

94.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.880

87.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.700

Pace Pressure

86.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.820

78.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.680

Defensive Skill

88.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.800

82.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.660

Distance Footwork Control

90.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.810

84.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.690

Ring IQ Adaptability

93.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.870

86.0 Nakatani Confidence High 0.760

Counter Punching

92.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.840

83.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.670

Chin

82.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.650

80.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.560

Cardio Engine

89.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.790

84.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.720

Style Profile Inoue: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger vs Nakatani: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

18.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.700

12.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.530

Out-Boxer

10.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.650

16.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.610

Power Slugger

27.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.850

24.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.720

Boxer-Puncher

35.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.900

34.0 Nakatani Confidence High 0.770

Counter-Puncher

10.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.550

14.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.500

Stance Interaction Inoue vs southpaw · Nakatani vs orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

42.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.720

72.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.710

Vs Southpaw

58.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.720

28.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.710

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Inoue

66.67 Nakatani

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Inoue

33.33 Nakatani

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

100 Inoue

100 Nakatani

Opponent Rating Last 3

80.91 Inoue

68.9 Nakatani

Trend Score Last 5

100 Inoue

80 Nakatani

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Inoue

83.33 Nakatani

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

45 Inoue

55 Nakatani

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

100 Inoue

100 Nakatani

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

80.91 Inoue

68.9 Nakatani

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Inoue

90 Nakatani

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Inoue stays in class.

Nakatani stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Inoue height: 165.0cm reach: 171.0cm

Nakatani height: 173.0cm reach: 174.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Nakatani.

Advantage: Nakatani +11.0cm

Stance Interaction

Inoue vs southpaw: 58.0

Nakatani vs orthodox: 72.0

Interaction: low advantage Nakatani.

Advantage: Nakatani

Style Interaction

Inoue style: Boxer Puncher

Nakatani style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral