Jesse Rodriguez vs Antonio Vargas

Data as of: 2026-08-20 08:25:05 UTC Custom

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using shared fighter weight class for matchup factors.

Rodriguez vs Vargas 14 Jun 2026 Model lean: Rodriguez Custom 85.33% ROI: -11.83% Bantamweight Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using shared fighter weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model lean Jesse Rodriguez 85.33%

Rodriguez odds 1.0333

Vargas odds 15.0000

Rodriguez implied 96.78%

Vargas implied 6.67%

Market odds 1.0333

Implied probability 96.78%

Expected return 0.8817

ROI -11.83%

Edge -11.45%

Lean No Value

Bout Custom

Odds updated 2026-06-09 00:30:02 UTC

Fighter details

Jesse Rodriguez

Score 83.24 · 24-0-0 (17 KO)

Full name Jesse James Rodriguez Franco

Age 26 · Rank #5 · Confidence Medium 0.702

Stance Southpaw · H/R 163cm / 170cm · US

The Ring Super flyweight WBA Bantamweight WBA Super flyweight WBC Super flyweight

Antonio Vargas

Score 57.90 · 19-2-1 (11 KO)

Full name Antonio Vargas

Age 30 · Rank #487 · Confidence Medium 0.506

Stance Orthodox · H/R 166cm / 168cm · PR

Jesse Rodriguez

Full name: Jesse James Rodriguez Franco
Age: 26
Fighter rank: #5
Current model score: 83.24
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.702
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 163cm / 170cm
Nationality: US
Career snapshot: 24-0-0 (17 KO)

World titles

The Ring Super flyweight WBA Bantamweight WBA Super flyweight WBC Super flyweight

14 Jun 2026

Projected Win Split

Model lean

Rodriguez

Custom

85% Rodriguez

15% Vargas

Model lean: Jesse Rodriguez 85.33%
Win probability: 85.33%
Market odds: 1.0333
Implied probability: 96.78%
Expected ROI (1u): -11.83%
Value edge: -11.45%
Lean assessment: No Value

Odds updated 2026-06-09 00:30:02 UTC

Antonio Vargas

Full name: Antonio Vargas
Age: 30
Fighter rank: #487
Current model score: 57.90
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.506
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 166cm / 168cm
Nationality: PR
Career snapshot: 19-2-1 (11 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

86.0 Rodriguez Confidence High 0.810

73.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.670

Punching Accuracy

90.0 Rodriguez Confidence High 0.820

68.0 Vargas Confidence Low 0.420

Hand Speed

92.0 Rodriguez Confidence High 0.760

71.0 Vargas Confidence Low 0.400

Pace Pressure

84.0 Rodriguez Confidence Medium 0.730

69.0 Vargas Confidence Low 0.480

Defensive Skill

87.0 Rodriguez Confidence Medium 0.740

61.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.520

Distance Footwork Control

89.0 Rodriguez Confidence High 0.750

66.0 Vargas Confidence Low 0.430

Ring IQ Adaptability

91.0 Rodriguez Confidence High 0.800

67.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.500

Counter Punching

88.0 Rodriguez Confidence Medium 0.700

64.0 Vargas Confidence Low 0.330

Chin

82.0 Rodriguez Confidence Medium 0.560

52.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.700

Cardio Engine

85.0 Rodriguez Confidence Medium 0.710

72.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.600

Style Profile Rodriguez: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger vs Vargas: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

12.0 Rodriguez Confidence Medium 0.540

14.0 Vargas Confidence Low 0.350

Out-Boxer

16.0 Rodriguez Confidence Medium 0.620

22.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.560

Power Slugger

18.0 Rodriguez Confidence Medium 0.680

18.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.540

Boxer-Puncher

42.0 Rodriguez Confidence High 0.810

34.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.670

Counter-Puncher

12.0 Rodriguez Confidence Low 0.420

12.0 Vargas Confidence Low 0.280

Stance Interaction Rodriguez vs orthodox · Vargas vs southpaw Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

62.0 Rodriguez Confidence Medium 0.740

62.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.580

Vs Southpaw

38.0 Rodriguez Confidence Medium 0.740

38.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.580

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Rodriguez

0 Vargas

Ko Rate Last 3

100 Rodriguez

0 Vargas

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

100 Rodriguez

100 Vargas

Opponent Rating Last 3

76.3 Rodriguez

86.25 Vargas

Trend Score Last 5

100 Rodriguez

50 Vargas

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Rodriguez

47.5 Vargas

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Rodriguez

27.5 Vargas

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

100 Rodriguez

100 Vargas

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

76.3 Rodriguez

86.25 Vargas

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Rodriguez

75 Vargas

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Rodriguez stays in class.

Vargas stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Rodriguez height: 163.0cm reach: 170.0cm

Vargas height: 166.0cm reach: 168.0cm

Interaction: low advantage Vargas.

Advantage: Vargas +1.0cm

Stance Interaction

Rodriguez vs orthodox: 62.0

Vargas vs southpaw: 38.0

Interaction: medium advantage Rodriguez.

Advantage: Rodriguez

Style Interaction

Rodriguez style: Boxer Puncher

Vargas style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral