Joshua Kelly vs Caoimhín Hynes

Data as of: 2026-09-07 07:51:09 UTC Custom

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using shared fighter weight class for matchup factors.

Kelly vs Hynes 25 Jul 2026 Model lean: Kelly Custom 66.60% ROI: -18.27% Super welterweight Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using shared fighter weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model lean Joshua Kelly 66.60%

Kelly odds 1.2273

Hynes odds 4.4000

Kelly implied 81.48%

Hynes implied 22.73%

Market odds 1.2273

Implied probability 81.48%

Expected return 0.8173

ROI -18.27%

Edge -14.88%

Lean No Value

Bout Custom

Odds updated 2026-07-25 00:30:03 UTC

Fighter details

Joshua Kelly

Score 72.46 · 19-1-1 (9 KO)

Full name Joshua Kelly

Age 32 · Rank #61 · Confidence Medium 0.677

Stance Orthodox · H/R 178cm / 183cm · GB

IBF Super welterweight

Caoimhín Hynes

Score 63.76 · 18-1-0 (7 KO)

Full name Caoimhín Agyarko Hynes

Age 29 · Rank #288 · Confidence Medium 0.608

Stance Orthodox · H/R 175cm / 180cm · IE

Joshua Kelly

Full name: Joshua Kelly
Age: 32
Fighter rank: #61
Current model score: 72.46
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.677
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 178cm / 183cm
Nationality: GB
Career snapshot: 19-1-1 (9 KO)

World titles

IBF Super welterweight

25 Jul 2026

Projected Win Split

Model lean

Kelly

Custom

67% Kelly

33% Hynes

Model lean: Joshua Kelly 66.60%
Win probability: 66.60%
Market odds: 1.2273
Implied probability: 81.48%
Expected ROI (1u): -18.27%
Value edge: -14.88%
Lean assessment: No Value

Odds updated 2026-07-25 00:30:03 UTC

Caoimhín Hynes

Full name: Caoimhín Agyarko Hynes
Age: 29
Fighter rank: #288
Current model score: 63.76
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.608
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 175cm / 180cm
Nationality: IE
Career snapshot: 18-1-0 (7 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

74.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.730

64.0 Hynes Confidence Medium 0.740

Punching Accuracy

81.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.710

70.0 Hynes Confidence Medium 0.580

Hand Speed

84.0 Kelly Confidence High 0.750

68.0 Hynes Confidence Medium 0.500

Pace Pressure

61.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.630

67.0 Hynes Confidence Medium 0.600

Defensive Skill

77.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.690

72.0 Hynes Confidence Medium 0.640

Distance Footwork Control

83.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.740

71.0 Hynes Confidence Medium 0.600

Ring IQ Adaptability

80.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.700

73.0 Hynes Confidence Medium 0.670

Counter Punching

82.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.690

66.0 Hynes Confidence Low 0.460

Chin

66.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.580

76.0 Hynes Confidence Medium 0.660

Cardio Engine

79.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.720

78.0 Hynes Confidence High 0.770

Style Profile Kelly: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer vs Hynes: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

8.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.550

18.0 Hynes Confidence Low 0.450

Out-Boxer

34.0 Kelly Confidence High 0.770

27.0 Hynes Confidence Medium 0.620

Power Slugger

10.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.680

8.0 Hynes Confidence Medium 0.720

Boxer-Puncher

36.0 Kelly Confidence High 0.790

34.0 Hynes Confidence Medium 0.670

Counter-Puncher

12.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.520

13.0 Hynes Confidence Low 0.340

Stance Interaction Kelly vs orthodox · Hynes vs orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

62.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.630

72.0 Hynes Confidence Medium 0.660

Vs Southpaw

38.0 Kelly Confidence Medium 0.630

28.0 Hynes Confidence Medium 0.660

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Kelly

33.33 Hynes

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Kelly

0 Hynes

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

100 Kelly

100 Hynes

Opponent Rating Last 3

85.33 Kelly

78.12 Hynes

Trend Score Last 5

100 Kelly

60 Hynes

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Kelly

66.67 Hynes

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

23.68 Kelly

17.65 Hynes

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

100 Kelly

100 Hynes

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

85.33 Kelly

78.12 Hynes

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Kelly

80 Hynes

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Kelly stays in class.

Hynes stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Kelly height: 178.0cm reach: 183.0cm

Hynes height: 175.0cm reach: 180.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Kelly.

Advantage: Kelly +6.0cm

Stance Interaction

Kelly vs orthodox: 62.0

Hynes vs orthodox: 72.0

Interaction: low advantage Hynes.

Advantage: Hynes

Style Interaction

Kelly style: Boxer Puncher

Hynes style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral