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Sasaki vs Ssemujju 21 Sep 2026 Model pick: Ssemujju Locked prediction 55.31% ROI: 276.07% Welterweight Tap to expand Analysis
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Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model pick David Ssemujju 55.31%

Sasaki odds 1.0769

Ssemujju odds 6.8000

Sasaki implied 92.86%

Ssemujju implied 14.71%

Market odds 6.8

Implied probability 14.71%

Expected return 3.7607

ROI 276.07%

Edge 40.60%

Lean Value

Bout Locked prediction

Locked prediction as of 2026-09-11 13:26:40 UTC

Fighter details
JS
Jin Sasaki

Score 65.01 · 21-2-1 (18 KO)

Full name Jin Sasaki

Age 25 · Rank #259 · Confidence Medium 0.592

Stance Orthodox · H/R 174cm / 176cm · JP

DS
David Ssemujju

Score 61.76 · 9-1-1 (5 KO)

Full name David Kavuma Ssemujju

Age 33 · Rank #362 · Confidence Medium 0.561

Stance Orthodox · H/R 175cm / 180cm · UG

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

87.0 Sasaki Confidence High 0.830

75.0 Ssemujju Confidence Medium 0.710

Punching Accuracy

74.0 Sasaki Confidence Medium 0.580

69.0 Ssemujju Confidence Medium 0.580

Hand Speed

76.0 Sasaki Confidence Medium 0.530

66.0 Ssemujju Confidence Low 0.440

Pace Pressure

79.0 Sasaki Confidence Medium 0.660

72.0 Ssemujju Confidence Medium 0.620

Defensive Skill

61.0 Sasaki Confidence Medium 0.620

67.0 Ssemujju Confidence Medium 0.530

Distance Footwork Control

67.0 Sasaki Confidence Medium 0.500

70.0 Ssemujju Confidence Medium 0.560

Ring IQ Adaptability

71.0 Sasaki Confidence Medium 0.570

74.0 Ssemujju Confidence Medium 0.670

Counter Punching

68.0 Sasaki Confidence Low 0.440

64.0 Ssemujju Confidence Low 0.410

Chin

58.0 Sasaki Confidence Medium 0.690

71.0 Ssemujju Confidence Medium 0.550

Cardio Engine

75.0 Sasaki Confidence Medium 0.630

78.0 Ssemujju Confidence High 0.750

Style Profile Sasaki: Power Slugger Boxer-Puncher  vs  Ssemujju: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

18.0 Sasaki Confidence Medium 0.500

18.0 Ssemujju Confidence Low 0.430

Out-Boxer

12.0 Sasaki Confidence Low 0.480

24.0 Ssemujju Confidence Medium 0.580

Power Slugger

34.0 Sasaki Confidence Medium 0.740

14.0 Ssemujju Confidence Medium 0.550

Boxer-Puncher

28.0 Sasaki Confidence Medium 0.670

34.0 Ssemujju Confidence Medium 0.680

Counter-Puncher

8.0 Sasaki Confidence Low 0.340

10.0 Ssemujju Confidence Low 0.320

Stance Interaction Sasaki vs orthodox  ·  Ssemujju vs orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

64.0 Sasaki Confidence Medium 0.640

62.0 Ssemujju Confidence Medium 0.580

Vs Southpaw

36.0 Sasaki Confidence Medium 0.640

38.0 Ssemujju Confidence Medium 0.580

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Sasaki

66.67 Ssemujju

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Sasaki

0 Ssemujju

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Sasaki

33.33 Ssemujju

Opponent Rating Last 3

67.07 Sasaki

58 Ssemujju

Trend Score Last 5

80 Sasaki

90 Ssemujju

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

78.57 Sasaki

77.08 Ssemujju

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

57.14 Sasaki

0 Ssemujju

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Sasaki

33.33 Ssemujju

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

67.07 Sasaki

58 Ssemujju

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

90 Sasaki

90 Ssemujju

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Sasaki stays in class.

Ssemujju stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Sasaki height: 174.0cm reach: 176.0cm

Ssemujju height: 175.0cm reach: 180.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Ssemujju.

Advantage: Ssemujju +5.0cm

Stance Interaction

Sasaki vs orthodox: 64.0

Ssemujju vs orthodox: 62.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Sasaki style: Power Slugger

Ssemujju style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: medium advantage Ssemujju.

Advantage: Ssemujju

Model: FiteQuant

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