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Rodríguez vs Hitchins 26 Jul 2026 Model pick: Hitchins Locked prediction 78.39% ROI: -14.58% Welterweight Tap to expand Analysis
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Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model pick Richardson Hitchins 78.39%

Rodríguez odds 7.5000

Hitchins odds 1.0897

Rodríguez implied 13.33%

Hitchins implied 91.77%

Market odds 1.0897

Implied probability 91.77%

Expected return 0.8542

ROI -14.58%

Edge -13.38%

Lean No Value

Bout Locked prediction

Locked prediction as of 2026-07-15 01:58:50 UTC

Fighter details
RR
Ricardo Rodríguez

Score 64.68 · 9-0-0 (16 KO)

Full name Ricardo Adan Salas Rodríguez

Age 27 · Rank #236 · Confidence Medium 0.529

Stance Orthodox · H/R 171cm / 178cm · MX

RH
Richardson Hitchins

Score 73.77 · 20-0-0 (8 KO)

Full name Richardson Hitchins

Age 28 · Rank #45 · Confidence Medium 0.669

Stance Orthodox · H/R 178cm / 188cm · US

IBF Super lightweight

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

82.0 Rodríguez Confidence High 0.770

69.0 Hitchins Confidence Medium 0.740

Punching Accuracy

72.0 Rodríguez Confidence Medium 0.580

82.0 Hitchins Confidence Medium 0.710

Hand Speed

68.0 Rodríguez Confidence Low 0.420

84.0 Hitchins Confidence Medium 0.680

Pace Pressure

73.0 Rodríguez Confidence Medium 0.570

64.0 Hitchins Confidence Medium 0.650

Defensive Skill

64.0 Rodríguez Confidence Medium 0.500

86.0 Hitchins Confidence High 0.760

Distance Footwork Control

69.0 Rodríguez Confidence Low 0.490

88.0 Hitchins Confidence High 0.770

Ring IQ Adaptability

71.0 Rodríguez Confidence Medium 0.560

87.0 Hitchins Confidence High 0.750

Counter Punching

67.0 Rodríguez Confidence Low 0.410

83.0 Hitchins Confidence Medium 0.670

Chin

74.0 Rodríguez Confidence Medium 0.600

79.0 Hitchins Confidence Medium 0.580

Cardio Engine

76.0 Rodríguez Confidence Medium 0.630

84.0 Hitchins Confidence Medium 0.730

Style Profile Rodríguez: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger  vs  Hitchins: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

18.0 Rodríguez Confidence Low 0.420

8.0 Hitchins Confidence Low 0.450

Out-Boxer

14.0 Rodríguez Confidence Low 0.460

44.0 Hitchins Confidence Medium 0.720

Power Slugger

28.0 Rodríguez Confidence Medium 0.580

6.0 Hitchins Confidence Medium 0.740

Boxer-Puncher

32.0 Rodríguez Confidence Medium 0.630

31.0 Hitchins Confidence Medium 0.690

Counter-Puncher

8.0 Rodríguez Confidence Very Low 0.240

11.0 Hitchins Confidence Low 0.380

Stance Interaction Rodríguez vs orthodox  ·  Hitchins vs orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

42.0 Rodríguez Confidence Medium 0.570

43.0 Hitchins Confidence Medium 0.680

Vs Southpaw

58.0 Rodríguez Confidence Medium 0.570

57.0 Hitchins Confidence Medium 0.680

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Rodríguez

100 Hitchins

Ko Rate Last 3

66.67 Rodríguez

33.33 Hitchins

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

100 Rodríguez

0 Hitchins

Opponent Rating Last 3

52.56 Rodríguez

75.53 Hitchins

Trend Score Last 5

100 Rodríguez

100 Hitchins

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Rodríguez

100 Hitchins

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

66.67 Rodríguez

37.25 Hitchins

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

100 Rodríguez

0 Hitchins

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

53.22 Rodríguez

75.53 Hitchins

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Rodríguez

100 Hitchins

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Rodríguez stays in class.

Hitchins moves up 1 class.

Interaction: low advantage Rodríguez.

Advantage: Rodríguez

Height Reach Delta

Rodríguez height: 171.0cm reach: 178.0cm

Hitchins height: 178.0cm reach: 188.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Hitchins.

Advantage: Hitchins +17.0cm

Stance Interaction

Rodríguez vs orthodox: 42.0

Hitchins vs orthodox: 43.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Rodríguez style: Boxer Puncher

Hitchins style: Out Boxer

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Model: FiteQuant

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