OWN YOUR EDGE
Smith vs Jr. 18 Apr 2026 Winner: Morrell Custom 67.71% ROI: 28.17% Tap to expand Analysis
Change fighters and profiles

Using shared fighter weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Smith odds 1.8929

Jr. odds 1.8929

Smith implied 52.83%

Jr. implied 52.83%

Pick odds 1.8929

Pick implied 52.83%

Expected return 1.2817

ROI 28.17%

Edge 14.88%

Lean Value

2026-04-13 07:28:30 UTC

Fighter details
CS
Callum Smith

Score 66.35 · 31-2-0 (22 KO)

Full name Callum John Smith

Age 36 · Rank #170 · Confidence Medium 0.624

Stance Orthodox · H/R 191cm / 198cm · GB

OJ
Osvary Gutierrez Jr.

Score 69.49 · 12-1-0 (9 KO)

Full name Osvary David Morrell Gutierrez Jr.

Age 28 · Rank #104 · Confidence Medium 0.625

Stance Southpaw · H/R 185cm / 196cm · CU

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

84.0 Smith Confidence High 0.790

88.0 Jr. Confidence High 0.840

Punching Accuracy

74.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.650

79.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.670

Hand Speed

69.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.580

84.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.660

Pace Pressure

68.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.630

75.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.630

Defensive Skill

71.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.640

72.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.580

Distance Footwork Control

80.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.720

78.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.640

Ring Iq Adaptability

78.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.690

76.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.620

Counter Punching

73.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.590

81.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.610

Chin

67.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.620

74.0 Jr. Confidence Low 0.490

Cardio Engine

75.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.680

77.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.660

Style Profile Smith: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer  vs  Jr.: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

10.0 Smith Confidence Low 0.460

12.0 Jr. Confidence Low 0.420

Out Boxer

28.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.720

17.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.550

Power Slugger

24.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.740

24.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.720

Boxer Puncher

32.0 Smith Confidence High 0.800

33.0 Jr. Confidence High 0.770

Counter Puncher

6.0 Smith Confidence Low 0.330

14.0 Jr. Confidence Low 0.380

Stance Advantage Smith Advantage Vs Orthodox  vs  Jr. Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

58.0 Smith Confidence Medium 0.550

72.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.690

Vs Southpaw

42.0 Smith Confidence Low 0.410

28.0 Jr. Confidence Medium 0.690

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Smith

66.67 Jr.

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Smith

0 Jr.

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

0 Smith

33.33 Jr.

Opponent Rating Last 3

70.32 Smith

74.24 Jr.

Trend Score Last 5

80 Smith

80 Jr.

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

81.67 Smith

83.33 Jr.

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

51.67 Smith

45 Jr.

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

0 Smith

33.33 Jr.

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

70.32 Smith

74.24 Jr.

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

80 Smith

90 Jr.

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Smith stays in class.

Jr. stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Reach vs Height Delta

Smith reach: 198.0cm height: 191.0cm delta: 7.0cm

Jr. reach: 196.0cm height: 185.0cm delta: 11.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Jr..

Advantage: Jr.

Stance Interaction

Smith advantage against orthodox: 58.0

Jr. advantage against orthodox: 72.0

Interaction: medium advantage Jr..

Advantage: Jr.

Style Interaction

Smith style: Boxer Puncher

Jr. style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Model: FiteQuant

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