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Sylve vs Diaz 20 Jun 2026 Model pick: Sylve Locked prediction 62.24% ROI: -29.98% Super lightweight Tap to expand Analysis
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Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model pick Ashton Sylve 62.24%

Sylve odds 1.1250

Diaz odds 6.0000

Sylve implied 88.89%

Diaz implied 16.67%

Market odds 1.125

Implied probability 88.89%

Expected return 0.7002

ROI -29.98%

Edge -26.65%

Lean No Value

Bout Locked prediction

Locked prediction as of 2026-06-19 01:10:22 UTC

Fighter details
AS
Ashton Sylve

Score 61.55 · 13-1-0 (10 KO)

Full name Ashton Sylve

Age 22 · Rank #312 · Confidence Medium 0.541

Stance Orthodox · H/R 173cm / 173cm · US

Joseph Diaz
Joseph Diaz

Score 60.04 · 34-9-1 (15 KO)

Full name Joseph Pedroza Diaz Jr.

Age 33 · Rank #336 · Confidence Medium 0.670

Stance Southpaw · H/R 168cm / 163cm · US

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

79.0 Sylve Confidence Medium 0.720

62.0 Diaz Confidence High 0.770

Punching Accuracy

72.0 Sylve Confidence Medium 0.580

74.0 Diaz Confidence Medium 0.730

Hand Speed

78.0 Sylve Confidence Medium 0.560

68.0 Diaz Confidence Medium 0.690

Pace Pressure

68.0 Sylve Confidence Medium 0.550

72.0 Diaz Confidence High 0.750

Defensive Skill

61.0 Sylve Confidence Medium 0.570

63.0 Diaz Confidence Medium 0.720

Distance Footwork Control

66.0 Sylve Confidence Medium 0.520

64.0 Diaz Confidence Medium 0.680

Ring Iq Adaptability

67.0 Sylve Confidence Medium 0.560

70.0 Diaz Confidence Medium 0.740

Counter Punching

64.0 Sylve Confidence Low 0.470

66.0 Diaz Confidence Medium 0.650

Chin

54.0 Sylve Confidence Medium 0.620

61.0 Diaz Confidence Medium 0.710

Cardio Engine

71.0 Sylve Confidence Medium 0.600

76.0 Diaz Confidence High 0.790

Style Profile Sylve: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger  vs  Diaz: Boxer-Puncher Pressure Swarmer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

12.0 Sylve Confidence Low 0.340

24.0 Diaz Confidence Medium 0.550

Out Boxer

18.0 Sylve Confidence Low 0.470

14.0 Diaz Confidence Low 0.450

Power Slugger

28.0 Sylve Confidence Medium 0.630

10.0 Diaz Confidence Medium 0.680

Boxer Puncher

34.0 Sylve Confidence Medium 0.660

36.0 Diaz Confidence High 0.760

Counter Puncher

8.0 Sylve Confidence Very Low 0.230

16.0 Diaz Confidence Low 0.420

Stance Interaction Sylve vs southpaw  ·  Diaz vs orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

58.0 Sylve Confidence Medium 0.560

58.0 Diaz Confidence Medium 0.650

Vs Southpaw

42.0 Sylve Confidence Medium 0.560

42.0 Diaz Confidence Medium 0.650

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Sylve

33.33 Diaz

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Sylve

0 Diaz

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Sylve

100 Diaz

Opponent Rating Last 3

74.01 Sylve

66.55 Diaz

Trend Score Last 5

80 Sylve

20 Diaz

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

83.33 Sylve

56.91 Diaz

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

57.58 Sylve

18.29 Diaz

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Sylve

100 Diaz

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

74.01 Sylve

66.55 Diaz

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

90 Sylve

30 Diaz

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Sylve moves up 1 class.

Diaz stays in class.

Interaction: low advantage Diaz.

Advantage: Diaz

Height Reach Delta

Sylve height: 173.0cm reach: 173.0cm

Diaz height: 168.0cm reach: 163.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Sylve.

Advantage: Sylve +15.0cm

Stance Interaction

Sylve vs southpaw: 42.0

Diaz vs orthodox: 58.0

Interaction: low advantage Diaz.

Advantage: Diaz

Style Interaction

Sylve style: Boxer Puncher

Diaz style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Model: FiteQuant

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