Model:

Azat Hovhannisyan vs Eduardo Valencia

Data as of: 2026-08-30 06:27:44 UTC Custom

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using inferred fighter weight class for this comparison. Change this if needed.

Hovhannisyan vs Valencia 06 Apr 2026 Model lean: Hovhannisyan Custom 93.72% ROI: 48.85% Super bantamweight Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using inferred fighter weight class for this comparison. Change this if needed.

Bout details

Model lean Azat Hovhannisyan 93.72%

Hovhannisyan odds 1.5882

Valencia odds 2.3000

Hovhannisyan implied 62.96%

Valencia implied 43.48%

Market odds 1.5882

Implied probability 62.96%

Expected return 1.4885

ROI 48.85%

Edge 30.76%

Lean Value

Bout Custom

Odds updated 2026-08-24 17:35:02 UTC

Fighter details

AH

Azat Hovhannisyan

Score 58.53 · 24-6-0 (17 KO)

Full name Azat Hovhannisyan

Age 38 · Rank #428 · Confidence Medium 0.595

Stance Orthodox · H/R 168cm / 165cm · AM

EV

Eduardo Valencia

Score 7.69 · 23-7-2 (0 KO)

Full name Eduardo Baez Valencia

Age N/A · Rank #805 · Confidence N/A

Stance Orthodox · H/R 169cm / 173cm · MX

AH

Azat Hovhannisyan

Full name: Azat Hovhannisyan
Age: 38
Fighter rank: #428
Current model score: 58.53
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.595
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 168cm / 165cm
Nationality: AM
Career snapshot: 24-6-0 (17 KO)

06 Apr 2026

Projected Win Split

Model lean

Hovhannisyan

Custom

94% Hovhannisyan

6% Valencia

Model lean: Azat Hovhannisyan 93.72%
Win probability: 93.72%
Market odds: 1.5882
Implied probability: 62.96%
Expected ROI (1u): 48.85%
Value edge: 30.76%
Lean assessment: Value

Odds updated 2026-08-24 17:35:02 UTC

EV

Eduardo Valencia

Full name: Eduardo Baez Valencia
Age: N/A
Fighter rank: #805
Current model score: 7.69
Fighter confidence: N/A
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 169cm / 173cm
Nationality: MX
Career snapshot: 23-7-2 (0 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

82.0 Hovhannisyan Confidence High 0.790

N/A Valencia Confidence No Data

Punching Accuracy

66.0 Hovhannisyan Confidence Medium 0.570

N/A Valencia Confidence No Data

Hand Speed

68.0 Hovhannisyan Confidence Medium 0.510

N/A Valencia Confidence No Data

Pace Pressure

78.0 Hovhannisyan Confidence Medium 0.720

N/A Valencia Confidence No Data

Defensive Skill

58.0 Hovhannisyan Confidence Medium 0.620

N/A Valencia Confidence No Data

Distance Footwork Control

60.0 Hovhannisyan Confidence Medium 0.540

N/A Valencia Confidence No Data

Ring IQ Adaptability

64.0 Hovhannisyan Confidence Medium 0.560

N/A Valencia Confidence No Data

Counter Punching

55.0 Hovhannisyan Confidence Low 0.430

N/A Valencia Confidence No Data

Chin

61.0 Hovhannisyan Confidence Medium 0.630

N/A Valencia Confidence No Data

Cardio Engine

72.0 Hovhannisyan Confidence Medium 0.660

N/A Valencia Confidence No Data

Style Profile Hovhannisyan: Pressure Swarmer Power Slugger vs Valencia: Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

33.0 Hovhannisyan Confidence Medium 0.630

N/A Valencia Confidence No Data

Out-Boxer

7.0 Hovhannisyan Confidence Low 0.460

N/A Valencia Confidence No Data

Power Slugger

28.0 Hovhannisyan Confidence Medium 0.740

N/A Valencia Confidence No Data

Boxer-Puncher

24.0 Hovhannisyan Confidence Medium 0.580

N/A Valencia Confidence No Data

Counter-Puncher

8.0 Hovhannisyan Confidence Low 0.350

N/A Valencia Confidence No Data

Stance Interaction Hovhannisyan vs orthodox · Valencia vs orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

62.0 Hovhannisyan Confidence Medium 0.660

N/A Valencia Confidence No Data

Vs Southpaw

38.0 Hovhannisyan Confidence Medium 0.660

N/A Valencia Confidence No Data

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Hovhannisyan

66.67 Valencia

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Hovhannisyan

33.33 Valencia

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

100 Hovhannisyan

100 Valencia

Opponent Rating Last 3

57.24 Hovhannisyan

53.7 Valencia

Trend Score Last 5

70 Hovhannisyan

55 Valencia

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

73.72 Hovhannisyan

66.67 Valencia

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

32.69 Hovhannisyan

33.33 Valencia

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

100 Hovhannisyan

100 Valencia

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

57.24 Hovhannisyan

64.86 Valencia

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

85 Hovhannisyan

55 Valencia

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Hovhannisyan stays in class.

Valencia moves down 1 class.

Interaction: low advantage Hovhannisyan.

Advantage: Hovhannisyan

Height Reach Delta

Hovhannisyan height: 168.0cm reach: 165.0cm

Valencia height: 169.0cm reach: 173.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Valencia.

Advantage: Valencia +9.0cm

Stance Interaction

Hovhannisyan vs orthodox: 62.0

Valencia vs orthodox: N/A

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Hovhannisyan style: Pressure Swarmer

Valencia style:

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Model: FiteQuant

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