Francis Waitai vs Max Reeves

Data as of: 2026-08-30 06:27:44 UTC Custom

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using shared fighter weight class for matchup factors.

Waitai vs Reeves 05 Apr 2026 Model lean: Waitai Custom 95.06% ROI: 194.69% Super middleweight Tap to expand Analysis

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Matchup weight class

Using shared fighter weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model lean Francis Waitai 95.06%

Waitai odds 3.1000

Reeves odds 1.5263

Waitai implied 32.26%

Reeves implied 65.52%

Market odds 3.1

Implied probability 32.26%

Expected return 2.9469

ROI 194.69%

Edge 62.80%

Lean Value

Bout Custom

Odds updated 2026-04-21 18:56:45 UTC

Fighter details

Francis Waitai

Score 54.43 · 13-3-1 (1 KO)

Full name Francis Waitai

Age 31 · Rank #785 · Confidence Medium 0.554

Stance Southpaw · H/R 190cm / 190cm · NZ

Max Reeves

Score 5.14 · 13-1-1 (8 KO)

Full name Max Reeves

Age N/A · Rank #802 · Confidence N/A

Stance Orthodox · H/R 184cm / N/A · AU

Francis Waitai

Full name: Francis Waitai
Age: 31
Fighter rank: #785
Current model score: 54.43
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.554
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 190cm / 190cm
Nationality: NZ
Career snapshot: 13-3-1 (1 KO)

05 Apr 2026

Projected Win Split

Model lean

Waitai

Custom

95% Waitai

5% Reeves

Model lean: Francis Waitai 95.06%
Win probability: 95.06%
Market odds: 3.1
Implied probability: 32.26%
Expected ROI (1u): 194.69%
Value edge: 62.80%
Lean assessment: Value

Odds updated 2026-04-21 18:56:45 UTC

Max Reeves

Full name: Max Reeves
Age: N/A
Fighter rank: #802
Current model score: 5.14
Fighter confidence: N/A
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 184cm / N/A
Nationality: AU
Career snapshot: 13-1-1 (8 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

42.0 Waitai Confidence High 0.780

N/A Reeves Confidence No Data

Punching Accuracy

61.0 Waitai Confidence Medium 0.520

N/A Reeves Confidence No Data

Hand Speed

57.0 Waitai Confidence Low 0.380

N/A Reeves Confidence No Data

Pace Pressure

59.0 Waitai Confidence Low 0.460

N/A Reeves Confidence No Data

Defensive Skill

63.0 Waitai Confidence Medium 0.580

N/A Reeves Confidence No Data

Distance Footwork Control

64.0 Waitai Confidence Medium 0.560

N/A Reeves Confidence No Data

Ring IQ Adaptability

66.0 Waitai Confidence Medium 0.620

N/A Reeves Confidence No Data

Counter Punching

60.0 Waitai Confidence Low 0.430

N/A Reeves Confidence No Data

Chin

68.0 Waitai Confidence Medium 0.610

N/A Reeves Confidence No Data

Cardio Engine

72.0 Waitai Confidence Medium 0.730

N/A Reeves Confidence No Data

Style Profile Waitai: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher vs Reeves: Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

18.0 Waitai Confidence Low 0.380

N/A Reeves Confidence No Data

Out-Boxer

42.0 Waitai Confidence Medium 0.630

N/A Reeves Confidence No Data

Power Slugger

6.0 Waitai Confidence High 0.820

N/A Reeves Confidence No Data

Boxer-Puncher

22.0 Waitai Confidence Low 0.460

N/A Reeves Confidence No Data

Counter-Puncher

12.0 Waitai Confidence Low 0.290

N/A Reeves Confidence No Data

Stance Interaction Waitai vs orthodox · Reeves vs southpaw Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

68.0 Waitai Confidence Medium 0.580

N/A Reeves Confidence No Data

Vs Southpaw

32.0 Waitai Confidence Medium 0.580

N/A Reeves Confidence No Data

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Waitai

100 Reeves

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Waitai

0 Reeves

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Waitai

33.33 Reeves

Opponent Rating Last 3

58.16 Waitai

58.81 Reeves

Trend Score Last 5

60 Waitai

85 Reeves

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

66.67 Waitai

100 Reeves

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

33.33 Waitai

8.33 Reeves

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Waitai

33.33 Reeves

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

61.23 Waitai

58.81 Reeves

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

80 Waitai

92.5 Reeves

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Waitai stays in class.

Reeves stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Waitai height: 190.0cm reach: 190.0cm

Reeves height: 184.0cm reach: N/A

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Stance Interaction

Waitai vs orthodox: 68.0

Reeves vs southpaw: N/A

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Waitai style: Out Boxer

Reeves style:

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral