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Mahoney vs Tszyu 26 Aug 2026 Model pick: Tszyu Locked prediction 51.90% ROI: -38.66% Super welterweight Tap to expand Analysis
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Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model pick Nikita Tszyu 51.90%

Mahoney odds 4.3000

Tszyu odds 1.1818

Mahoney implied 23.26%

Tszyu implied 84.62%

Market odds 1.1818

Implied probability 84.62%

Expected return 0.6134

ROI -38.66%

Edge -32.71%

Lean No Value

Bout Locked prediction

Locked prediction as of 2026-07-30 03:22:53 UTC

Fighter details
BM
Ben Mahoney

Score 64.92 · 12-0-1 (0 KO)

Full name Benjamin Mahoney

Age 31 · Rank #241 · Confidence Medium 0.518

Stance Orthodox · H/R 180cm / 180cm · AU

NT
Nikita Tszyu

Score 67.39 · 12-0-0 (10 KO)

Full name Nikita Konstantinovich Tszyu

Age 28 · Rank #162 · Confidence Medium 0.543

Stance Southpaw · H/R 177cm / 178cm · AU

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

76.0 Mahoney Confidence Medium 0.650

87.0 Tszyu Confidence Medium 0.730

Punching Accuracy

69.0 Mahoney Confidence Medium 0.520

75.0 Tszyu Confidence Medium 0.580

Hand Speed

64.0 Mahoney Confidence Low 0.400

74.0 Tszyu Confidence Low 0.490

Pace Pressure

71.0 Mahoney Confidence Medium 0.560

81.0 Tszyu Confidence Medium 0.670

Defensive Skill

72.0 Mahoney Confidence Medium 0.580

68.0 Tszyu Confidence Low 0.430

Distance Footwork Control

70.0 Mahoney Confidence Medium 0.500

71.0 Tszyu Confidence Low 0.460

Ring IQ Adaptability

74.0 Mahoney Confidence Medium 0.600

76.0 Tszyu Confidence Medium 0.570

Counter Punching

66.0 Mahoney Confidence Low 0.420

69.0 Tszyu Confidence Low 0.400

Chin

73.0 Mahoney Confidence Low 0.470

72.0 Tszyu Confidence Low 0.390

Cardio Engine

77.0 Mahoney Confidence Medium 0.670

77.0 Tszyu Confidence Medium 0.610

Style Profile Mahoney: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer  vs  Tszyu: Power Slugger Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

18.0 Mahoney Confidence Low 0.430

24.0 Tszyu Confidence Medium 0.560

Out-Boxer

22.0 Mahoney Confidence Low 0.490

8.0 Tszyu Confidence Low 0.420

Power Slugger

17.0 Mahoney Confidence Low 0.450

30.0 Tszyu Confidence Medium 0.720

Boxer-Puncher

33.0 Mahoney Confidence Medium 0.620

28.0 Tszyu Confidence Medium 0.630

Counter-Puncher

10.0 Mahoney Confidence Low 0.280

10.0 Tszyu Confidence Low 0.330

Stance Interaction Mahoney vs southpaw  ·  Tszyu vs orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

62.0 Mahoney Confidence Medium 0.580

68.0 Tszyu Confidence Medium 0.620

Vs Southpaw

38.0 Mahoney Confidence Medium 0.580

32.0 Tszyu Confidence Medium 0.620

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Mahoney

100 Tszyu

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Mahoney

100 Tszyu

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

100 Mahoney

66.67 Tszyu

Opponent Rating Last 3

68.15 Mahoney

57.25 Tszyu

Trend Score Last 5

100 Mahoney

100 Tszyu

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Mahoney

100 Tszyu

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

43.94 Mahoney

100 Tszyu

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

100 Mahoney

66.67 Tszyu

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

68.15 Mahoney

57.25 Tszyu

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Mahoney

100 Tszyu

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Mahoney stays in class.

Tszyu stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Mahoney height: 180.0cm reach: 180.0cm

Tszyu height: 177.0cm reach: 178.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Mahoney.

Advantage: Mahoney +5.0cm

Stance Interaction

Mahoney vs southpaw: 38.0

Tszyu vs orthodox: 68.0

Interaction: medium advantage Tszyu.

Advantage: Tszyu

Style Interaction

Mahoney style: Boxer Puncher

Tszyu style: Power Slugger

Interaction: medium advantage Mahoney.

Advantage: Mahoney

Model: FiteQuant

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