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Jones vs Rivera TODAY Model pick: Jones Locked prediction 51.84% ROI: -46.43% Super welterweight Tap to expand Analysis
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Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model pick Omari Jones 51.84%

Jones odds 1.0333

Rivera odds 9.9000

Jones implied 96.78%

Rivera implied 10.10%

Market odds 1.0333

Implied probability 96.78%

Expected return 0.5357

ROI -46.43%

Edge -44.93%

Lean No Value

Bout Locked prediction

Locked prediction as of 2026-09-11 16:54:15 UTC

Fighter details
Omari Jones
Omari Jones

Score 68.85 · 7-0-0 (4 KO)

Full name Omari Lamon Jones

Age 23 · Rank #139 · Confidence Medium 0.571

Stance Orthodox · H/R 188cm / 178cm · US

AR
Alan Rivera

Score 54.01 · 24-6-1 (10 KO)

Full name Alan Leonardo Sanchez Rivera

Age 35 · Rank #744 · Confidence Medium 0.558

Stance Orthodox · H/R 185cm / 193cm · MX

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

76.0 Jones Confidence Medium 0.690

61.0 Rivera Confidence Medium 0.660

Punching Accuracy

74.0 Jones Confidence Medium 0.620

66.0 Rivera Confidence Medium 0.550

Hand Speed

79.0 Jones Confidence Medium 0.640

63.0 Rivera Confidence Low 0.470

Pace Pressure

68.0 Jones Confidence Medium 0.570

64.0 Rivera Confidence Medium 0.570

Defensive Skill

78.0 Jones Confidence Medium 0.660

58.0 Rivera Confidence Medium 0.560

Distance Footwork Control

80.0 Jones Confidence Medium 0.670

62.0 Rivera Confidence Medium 0.540

Ring IQ Adaptability

81.0 Jones Confidence Medium 0.680

67.0 Rivera Confidence Medium 0.610

Counter Punching

73.0 Jones Confidence Medium 0.550

59.0 Rivera Confidence Low 0.420

Chin

71.0 Jones Confidence Low 0.430

55.0 Rivera Confidence Medium 0.620

Cardio Engine

77.0 Jones Confidence Medium 0.670

68.0 Rivera Confidence Medium 0.640

Style Profile Jones: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer  vs  Rivera: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

10.0 Jones Confidence Low 0.310

16.0 Rivera Confidence Low 0.420

Out-Boxer

28.0 Jones Confidence Medium 0.610

26.0 Rivera Confidence Medium 0.580

Power Slugger

16.0 Jones Confidence Medium 0.520

11.0 Rivera Confidence Medium 0.660

Boxer-Puncher

34.0 Jones Confidence Medium 0.710

34.0 Rivera Confidence Medium 0.690

Counter-Puncher

12.0 Jones Confidence Low 0.270

13.0 Rivera Confidence Low 0.320

Stance Interaction Jones vs orthodox  ·  Rivera vs orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

62.0 Jones Confidence Medium 0.550

61.0 Rivera Confidence Medium 0.590

Vs Southpaw

38.0 Jones Confidence Medium 0.550

39.0 Rivera Confidence Medium 0.590

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Jones

66.67 Rivera

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Jones

0 Rivera

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

100 Jones

0 Rivera

Opponent Rating Last 3

48.05 Jones

52.63 Rivera

Trend Score Last 5

100 Jones

80 Rivera

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Jones

72.62 Rivera

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

50 Jones

17.86 Rivera

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

100 Jones

0 Rivera

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

48.05 Jones

52.63 Rivera

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Jones

80 Rivera

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Jones moves up 1 class.

Rivera moves up 1 class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Jones height: 188.0cm reach: 178.0cm

Rivera height: 185.0cm reach: 193.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Rivera.

Advantage: Rivera +12.0cm

Stance Interaction

Jones vs orthodox: 62.0

Rivera vs orthodox: 61.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Jones style: Boxer Puncher

Rivera style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Model: FiteQuant

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