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Serrano vs Ochoa 28 Jun 2026 Model pick: Ochoa Locked prediction 63.31% ROI: -13.92% Lightweight Tap to expand Analysis
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Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model pick Brady Ochoa 63.31%

Serrano odds 3.0000

Ochoa odds 1.3597

Serrano implied 33.33%

Ochoa implied 73.55%

Market odds 1.3597

Implied probability 73.55%

Expected return 0.8608

ROI -13.92%

Edge -10.23%

Lean No Value

Bout Locked prediction

Locked prediction as of 2026-06-26 01:17:27 UTC

Fighter details
AS
Adrian Serrano

Score 54.81 · 6-0-2 (0 KO)

Full name Adrian Miguel Serrano

Age 22 · Rank #523 · Confidence Low 0.405

Stance N/A · H/R 168cm / 173cm · US

BO
Brady Ochoa

Score 57.08 · 6-0-1 (0 KO)

Full name Brady Ray Ochoa

Age 19 · Rank #473 · Confidence Low 0.405

Stance N/A · H/R 173cm / 173cm · US

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

61.0 Serrano Confidence Medium 0.540

68.0 Ochoa Confidence Medium 0.550

Punching Accuracy

62.0 Serrano Confidence Low 0.460

64.0 Ochoa Confidence Low 0.420

Hand Speed

64.0 Serrano Confidence Low 0.380

66.0 Ochoa Confidence Low 0.380

Pace Pressure

60.0 Serrano Confidence Low 0.440

63.0 Ochoa Confidence Low 0.440

Defensive Skill

63.0 Serrano Confidence Low 0.490

67.0 Ochoa Confidence Low 0.460

Distance Footwork Control

61.0 Serrano Confidence Low 0.410

65.0 Ochoa Confidence Low 0.410

Ring Iq Adaptability

62.0 Serrano Confidence Low 0.470

69.0 Ochoa Confidence Low 0.490

Counter Punching

57.0 Serrano Confidence Low 0.340

58.0 Ochoa Confidence Low 0.310

Chin

66.0 Serrano Confidence Low 0.420

66.0 Ochoa Confidence Low 0.350

Cardio Engine

65.0 Serrano Confidence Medium 0.500

72.0 Ochoa Confidence Medium 0.570

Style Profile Serrano: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer  vs  Ochoa: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

18.0 Serrano Confidence Low 0.270

16.0 Ochoa Confidence Low 0.290

Out Boxer

28.0 Serrano Confidence Low 0.440

28.0 Ochoa Confidence Low 0.480

Power Slugger

15.0 Serrano Confidence Low 0.350

18.0 Ochoa Confidence Low 0.310

Boxer Puncher

31.0 Serrano Confidence Low 0.490

30.0 Ochoa Confidence Medium 0.540

Counter Puncher

8.0 Serrano Confidence Very Low 0.200

8.0 Ochoa Confidence Very Low 0.200

Stance Interaction Serrano vs unknown stance  ·  Ochoa vs unknown stance Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

64.0 Serrano Confidence Low 0.340

68.0 Ochoa Confidence Low 0.340

Vs Southpaw

36.0 Serrano Confidence Low 0.340

32.0 Ochoa Confidence Low 0.340

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Serrano

66.67 Ochoa

Ko Rate Last 3

66.67 Serrano

0 Ochoa

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

100 Serrano

100 Ochoa

Opponent Rating Last 3

48.21 Serrano

52.28 Ochoa

Trend Score Last 5

90 Serrano

90 Ochoa

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

70.83 Serrano

83.33 Ochoa

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

66.67 Serrano

25 Ochoa

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

100 Serrano

100 Ochoa

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

48.21 Serrano

52.28 Ochoa

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

90 Serrano

95 Ochoa

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Serrano moves up 2 classes.

Ochoa stays in class.

Interaction: low advantage Ochoa.

Advantage: Ochoa

Height Reach Delta

Serrano height: 168.0cm reach: 173.0cm

Ochoa height: 173.0cm reach: 173.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Ochoa.

Advantage: Ochoa +5.0cm

Stance Interaction

Serrano vs unknown stance: N/A

Ochoa vs unknown stance: N/A

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Serrano style: Boxer Puncher

Ochoa style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Model: FiteQuant

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