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Meza vs Tsutsumi 25 Jul 2026 Model pick: Tsutsumi Locked prediction 64.02% ROI: -31.06% Featherweight Tap to expand Analysis
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Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model pick Reito Tsutsumi 64.02%

Meza odds 6.8000

Tsutsumi odds 1.0769

Meza implied 14.71%

Tsutsumi implied 92.86%

Market odds 1.0769

Implied probability 92.86%

Expected return 0.6894

ROI -31.06%

Edge -28.84%

Lean No Value

Bout Locked prediction

Locked prediction as of 2026-07-19 01:01:37 UTC

Fighter details
AM
Alvino Herrera Meza

Score 54.88 · 8-0-0 (0 KO)

Full name Alvino Roberto Herrera Meza

Age N/A · Rank #546 · Confidence Low 0.379

Stance Orthodox · H/R 168cm / 172cm · MX

RT
Reito Tsutsumi

Score 63.47 · 4-0-0 (3 KO)

Full name Reito Tsutsumi

Age 23 · Rank #281 · Confidence Low 0.497

Stance Southpaw · H/R 165cm / 168cm · JP

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

68.0 Meza Confidence Low 0.480

75.0 Tsutsumi Confidence Medium 0.610

Punching Accuracy

61.0 Meza Confidence Low 0.340

74.0 Tsutsumi Confidence Medium 0.560

Hand Speed

60.0 Meza Confidence Low 0.280

79.0 Tsutsumi Confidence Medium 0.600

Pace Pressure

66.0 Meza Confidence Low 0.430

72.0 Tsutsumi Confidence Medium 0.520

Defensive Skill

67.0 Meza Confidence Low 0.390

71.0 Tsutsumi Confidence Medium 0.500

Distance Footwork Control

64.0 Meza Confidence Low 0.330

76.0 Tsutsumi Confidence Medium 0.580

Ring IQ Adaptability

69.0 Meza Confidence Low 0.450

77.0 Tsutsumi Confidence Medium 0.590

Counter Punching

58.0 Meza Confidence Very Low 0.240

73.0 Tsutsumi Confidence Medium 0.500

Chin

65.0 Meza Confidence Low 0.310

68.0 Tsutsumi Confidence Low 0.360

Cardio Engine

70.0 Meza Confidence Low 0.470

70.0 Tsutsumi Confidence Low 0.440

Style Profile Meza: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger  vs  Tsutsumi: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

18.0 Meza Confidence Low 0.340

10.0 Tsutsumi Confidence Low 0.260

Out-Boxer

16.0 Meza Confidence Low 0.380

22.0 Tsutsumi Confidence Low 0.420

Power Slugger

20.0 Meza Confidence Low 0.420

24.0 Tsutsumi Confidence Low 0.470

Boxer-Puncher

34.0 Meza Confidence Medium 0.580

34.0 Tsutsumi Confidence Medium 0.560

Counter-Puncher

12.0 Meza Confidence Very Low 0.240

10.0 Tsutsumi Confidence Very Low 0.220

Stance Interaction Meza vs southpaw  ·  Tsutsumi vs orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

62.0 Meza Confidence Low 0.380

64.0 Tsutsumi Confidence Medium 0.630

Vs Southpaw

38.0 Meza Confidence Low 0.380

36.0 Tsutsumi Confidence Medium 0.630

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Meza

100 Tsutsumi

Ko Rate Last 3

66.67 Meza

100 Tsutsumi

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

0 Meza

66.67 Tsutsumi

Opponent Rating Last 3

44 Meza

38.67 Tsutsumi

Trend Score Last 5

100 Meza

100 Tsutsumi

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Meza

100 Tsutsumi

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

66.67 Meza

100 Tsutsumi

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

0 Meza

66.67 Tsutsumi

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

45.2 Meza

43.83 Tsutsumi

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Meza

100 Tsutsumi

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Meza moves down 2 classes.

Tsutsumi moves down 1 class.

Interaction: low advantage Tsutsumi.

Advantage: Tsutsumi

Height Reach Delta

Meza height: 168.0cm reach: 172.0cm

Tsutsumi height: 165.0cm reach: 168.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Meza.

Advantage: Meza +7.0cm

Stance Interaction

Meza vs southpaw: 38.0

Tsutsumi vs orthodox: 64.0

Interaction: medium advantage Tsutsumi.

Advantage: Tsutsumi

Style Interaction

Meza style: Boxer Puncher

Tsutsumi style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Model: FiteQuant

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