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Guerrero vs Cruz TODAY Model pick: Guerrero Current odds 79.16% ROI: -15.19% Tap to expand Analysis
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Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model pick Yan Guerrero 79.16%

Guerrero odds 1.0714

Cruz odds 8.5000

Guerrero implied 93.34%

Cruz implied 11.76%

Pick odds 1.0714

Pick implied 93.34%

Expected return 0.8481

ROI -15.19%

Edge -14.18%

Lean No Value

Bout Current odds

Odds updated 2026-05-17 00:30:03 UTC

Fighter details
YG
Yan Guerrero

Score 68.22 · 16-0-0 (13 KO)

Full name Yan Carlos Santana Guerrero

Age 26 · Rank Unranked · Confidence Medium 0.561

Stance Orthodox · H/R 173cm / 183cm · DO

CC
Cristian Cruz

Score 53.79 · 10-2-2 (10 KO)

Full name Cristian Jesus Cruz Chacón

Age 29 · Rank Unranked · Confidence Low 0.455

Stance Orthodox · H/R 166cm / 169cm · MX

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

85.0 Guerrero Confidence High 0.760

64.0 Cruz Confidence Medium 0.620

Punching Accuracy

76.0 Guerrero Confidence Medium 0.580

61.0 Cruz Confidence Low 0.450

Hand Speed

74.0 Guerrero Confidence Low 0.480

60.0 Cruz Confidence Low 0.380

Pace Pressure

77.0 Guerrero Confidence Medium 0.570

66.0 Cruz Confidence Medium 0.500

Defensive Skill

79.0 Guerrero Confidence Medium 0.630

58.0 Cruz Confidence Low 0.470

Distance Footwork Control

80.0 Guerrero Confidence Medium 0.610

59.0 Cruz Confidence Low 0.420

Ring Iq Adaptability

78.0 Guerrero Confidence Medium 0.590

62.0 Cruz Confidence Low 0.480

Counter Punching

73.0 Guerrero Confidence Low 0.460

56.0 Cruz Confidence Low 0.340

Chin

71.0 Guerrero Confidence Low 0.370

67.0 Cruz Confidence Medium 0.550

Cardio Engine

81.0 Guerrero Confidence Medium 0.660

70.0 Cruz Confidence Medium 0.610

Style Profile Guerrero: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger  vs  Cruz: Boxer-Puncher Pressure Swarmer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

12.0 Guerrero Confidence Low 0.360

24.0 Cruz Confidence Low 0.270

Out Boxer

22.0 Guerrero Confidence Medium 0.620

16.0 Cruz Confidence Low 0.350

Power Slugger

24.0 Guerrero Confidence Medium 0.680

14.0 Cruz Confidence Low 0.420

Boxer Puncher

34.0 Guerrero Confidence Medium 0.720

32.0 Cruz Confidence Medium 0.500

Counter Puncher

8.0 Guerrero Confidence Low 0.290

14.0 Cruz Confidence Very Low 0.200

Stance Advantage Guerrero Advantage Vs Orthodox  vs  Cruz Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

62.0 Guerrero Confidence Medium 0.580

58.0 Cruz Confidence Medium 0.590

Vs Southpaw

38.0 Guerrero Confidence Medium 0.580

42.0 Cruz Confidence Medium 0.590

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Guerrero

66.67 Cruz

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Guerrero

0 Cruz

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Guerrero

100 Cruz

Opponent Rating Last 3

49.67 Guerrero

60.42 Cruz

Trend Score Last 5

100 Guerrero

73.75 Cruz

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Guerrero

69.7 Cruz

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

0 Guerrero

0 Cruz

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Guerrero

100 Cruz

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

49.67 Guerrero

60.42 Cruz

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Guerrero

81.88 Cruz

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Guerrero stays in class.

Cruz moves down 1 classes.

Interaction: low advantage Guerrero.

Advantage: Guerrero

Reach vs Height Delta

Guerrero reach: 183.0cm height: 173.0cm delta: 10.0cm

Cruz reach: 169.0cm height: 166.0cm delta: 3.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Guerrero.

Advantage: Guerrero

Stance Interaction

Guerrero advantage against orthodox: 62.0

Cruz advantage against orthodox: 58.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Guerrero

Style Interaction

Guerrero style: Boxer Puncher

Cruz style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Model: FiteQuant

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