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Andrade vs Ataide 25 Jul 2026 Model pick: Andrade Locked prediction 86.54% ROI: -9.14% Super middleweight Tap to expand Analysis
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Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model pick Demetrius Andrade 86.54%

Andrade odds 1.0500

Ataide odds 8.3000

Andrade implied 95.24%

Ataide implied 12.05%

Market odds 1.05

Implied probability 95.24%

Expected return 0.9086

ROI -9.14%

Edge -8.70%

Lean No Value

Bout Locked prediction

Locked prediction as of 2026-07-23 00:40:42 UTC

Fighter details
DA
Demetrius Andrade

Score 69.66 · 32-1-0 (19 KO)

Full name Demetrius Cesar Andrade

Age 38 · Rank #105 · Confidence Medium 0.663

Stance Southpaw · H/R 185cm / 187cm · US

DA
Douglas Ataide

Score 43.85 · 4-4-1 (4 KO)

Full name Douglas Damião Ataide

Age 35 · Rank #679 · Confidence Low 0.459

Stance Orthodox · H/R 183cm / 191cm · BR

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

74.0 Andrade Confidence Medium 0.720

63.0 Ataide Confidence Medium 0.620

Punching Accuracy

82.0 Andrade Confidence Medium 0.740

56.0 Ataide Confidence Low 0.420

Hand Speed

80.0 Andrade Confidence Medium 0.710

54.0 Ataide Confidence Low 0.340

Pace Pressure

62.0 Andrade Confidence Medium 0.700

58.0 Ataide Confidence Low 0.450

Defensive Skill

81.0 Andrade Confidence Medium 0.740

44.0 Ataide Confidence Medium 0.660

Distance Footwork Control

84.0 Andrade Confidence High 0.760

50.0 Ataide Confidence Low 0.410

Ring IQ Adaptability

83.0 Andrade Confidence Medium 0.730

51.0 Ataide Confidence Low 0.420

Counter Punching

79.0 Andrade Confidence Medium 0.690

47.0 Ataide Confidence Low 0.310

Chin

66.0 Andrade Confidence Medium 0.550

42.0 Ataide Confidence Medium 0.720

Cardio Engine

77.0 Andrade Confidence Medium 0.680

55.0 Ataide Confidence Low 0.480

Style Profile Andrade: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher  vs  Ataide: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

8.0 Andrade Confidence Medium 0.520

16.0 Ataide Confidence Low 0.350

Out-Boxer

42.0 Andrade Confidence High 0.760

22.0 Ataide Confidence Low 0.480

Power Slugger

10.0 Andrade Confidence Medium 0.580

18.0 Ataide Confidence Low 0.460

Boxer-Puncher

28.0 Andrade Confidence Medium 0.710

34.0 Ataide Confidence Medium 0.580

Counter-Puncher

12.0 Andrade Confidence Low 0.490

10.0 Ataide Confidence Low 0.260

Stance Interaction Andrade vs orthodox  ·  Ataide vs southpaw Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

68.0 Andrade Confidence Medium 0.710

66.0 Ataide Confidence Low 0.420

Vs Southpaw

32.0 Andrade Confidence Low 0.480

34.0 Ataide Confidence Low 0.420

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Andrade

33.33 Ataide

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Andrade

33.33 Ataide

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

0 Andrade

0 Ataide

Opponent Rating Last 3

63.36 Andrade

60.85 Ataide

Trend Score Last 5

80 Andrade

20 Ataide

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

83.33 Andrade

41.67 Ataide

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

46.67 Andrade

33.33 Ataide

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

0 Andrade

0 Ataide

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

63.36 Andrade

60.85 Ataide

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

90 Andrade

53.75 Ataide

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Andrade stays in class.

Ataide stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Andrade height: 185.0cm reach: 187.0cm

Ataide height: 183.0cm reach: 191.0cm

Interaction: low advantage Ataide.

Advantage: Ataide +2.0cm

Stance Interaction

Andrade vs orthodox: 68.0

Ataide vs southpaw: 34.0

Interaction: medium advantage Andrade.

Advantage: Andrade

Style Interaction

Andrade style: Out Boxer

Ataide style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Model: FiteQuant

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