Naoya Inoue vs Junto Nakatani

Data as of: 2026-05-17 07:41:50 UTC Time-safe As-of 2026-05-02

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Inoue vs Nakatani 02 May 2026 Result: Inoue Time-safe Pick 65.06% Prediction: Correct Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Naoya Inoue (U D)

Model pick Naoya Inoue 65.06%

Prediction result Correct

Inoue odds 1.2222

Nakatani odds 4.1000

Inoue implied 81.82%

Nakatani implied 24.39%

Pick odds 1.2222

Pick implied 81.82%

Expected return 0.7951

ROI -20.49%

Edge -16.76%

Lean No Value

Bout Time-safe

Odds updated 2026-05-17 05:48:12 UTC

Fighter details

Naoya Inoue

Score 86.67 · 33-0-0 (27 KO)

Full name Naoya Inoue

Age 33 · Rank #1 · Confidence High 0.789

Stance Orthodox · H/R 165cm / 171cm · JP

The Ring Super bantamweight WBA Super bantamweight WBC Super bantamweight IBF Super bantamweight WBO Super bantamweight

Junto Nakatani

Score 77.51 · 32-1-0 (24 KO)

Full name Junto Nakatani

Age 28 · Rank #25 · Confidence Medium 0.681

Stance Southpaw · H/R 173cm / 174cm · JP

The Ring Bantamweight

Naoya Inoue

Full name: Naoya Inoue
Age: 33
Fighter rank: #1
Current model score: 86.67
Fighter confidence: High 0.789
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 165cm / 171cm
Nationality: JP
Career snapshot: 33-0-0 (27 KO)

World titles

The Ring Super bantamweight WBA Super bantamweight WBC Super bantamweight IBF Super bantamweight WBO Super bantamweight

02 May 2026

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Inoue

Time-safe

65% Inoue

35% Nakatani

Fight result: Naoya Inoue (U D)
Model pick: Naoya Inoue 65.06%
Prediction result: Correct
Pick probability: 65.06%
Market odds: 1.2222
Implied probability: 81.82%
Expected ROI (1u): -20.49%
Value edge: -16.76%
Lean assessment: No Value

Odds updated 2026-05-17 05:48:12 UTC

Junto Nakatani

Full name: Junto Nakatani
Age: 28
Fighter rank: #25
Current model score: 77.51
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.681
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 173cm / 174cm
Nationality: JP
Career snapshot: 32-1-0 (24 KO)

World titles

The Ring Bantamweight

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

98.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.970

90.0 Nakatani Confidence High 0.860

Punching Accuracy

93.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.900

85.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.730

Hand Speed

94.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.880

87.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.700

Pace Pressure

86.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.820

78.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.680

Defensive Skill

88.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.800

82.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.660

Distance Footwork Control

90.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.810

84.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.690

Ring Iq Adaptability

93.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.870

86.0 Nakatani Confidence High 0.760

Counter Punching

92.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.840

83.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.670

Chin

82.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.650

80.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.560

Cardio Engine

89.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.790

84.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.720

Style Profile Inoue: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger vs Nakatani: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

18.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.700

12.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.530

Out Boxer

10.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.650

16.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.610

Power Slugger

27.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.850

24.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.720

Boxer Puncher

35.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.900

34.0 Nakatani Confidence High 0.770

Counter Puncher

10.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.550

14.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.500

Stance Advantage Inoue Advantage Vs Southpaw vs Nakatani Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

42.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.720

72.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.710

Vs Southpaw

58.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.720

28.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.710

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Inoue

66.67 Nakatani

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Inoue

33.33 Nakatani

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

100 Inoue

100 Nakatani

Opponent Rating Last 3

80.91 Inoue

68.9 Nakatani

Trend Score Last 5

100 Inoue

80 Nakatani

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Inoue

83.33 Nakatani

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

45 Inoue

55 Nakatani

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

100 Inoue

100 Nakatani

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

80.91 Inoue

68.9 Nakatani

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Inoue

90 Nakatani

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Inoue stays in class.

Nakatani stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Reach vs Height Delta

Inoue reach: 171.0cm height: 165.0cm delta: 6.0cm

Nakatani reach: 174.0cm height: 173.0cm delta: 1.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Inoue.

Advantage: Inoue

Stance Interaction

Inoue advantage against southpaw: 58.0

Nakatani advantage against orthodox: 72.0

Interaction: low advantage Nakatani.

Advantage: Nakatani

Style Interaction

Inoue style: Boxer Puncher

Nakatani style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral