Naoya Inoue vs Nonito Donaire

Data as of: 2026-06-03 14:34:30 UTC Historical As-of 2022-06-07

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Inoue vs Donaire 07 Jun 2022 Result: Inoue Historical Pick 84.00% Prediction: Correct Bantamweight Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Naoya Inoue (TKO)

Model pick Naoya Inoue 84.00%

Prediction result Correct

Inoue odds 1.2000

Donaire odds 5.7000

Inoue implied 83.33%

Donaire implied 17.54%

Pick odds 1.2

Pick implied 83.33%

Expected return 1.0080

ROI 0.80%

Edge 0.67%

Lean Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-10 13:02:08 UTC

Fighter details

Naoya Inoue

Score 85.92 · 33-0-0 (27 KO)

Full name Naoya Inoue

Age 33 · Rank #2 · Confidence High 0.789

Stance Orthodox · H/R 165cm / 171cm · JP

The Ring Super bantamweight WBA Super bantamweight WBC Super bantamweight IBF Super bantamweight WBO Super bantamweight

Nonito Donaire

Score 52.87 · 43-10-0 (28 KO)

Full name Nonito Gonzales Donaire Jr.

Age 43 · Rank #488 · Confidence Medium 0.719

Stance Orthodox · H/R 168cm / 173cm · US

Naoya Inoue

Full name: Naoya Inoue
Age: 33
Fighter rank: #2
Current model score: 85.92
Fighter confidence: High 0.789
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 165cm / 171cm
Nationality: JP
Career snapshot: 33-0-0 (27 KO)

World titles

The Ring Super bantamweight WBA Super bantamweight WBC Super bantamweight IBF Super bantamweight WBO Super bantamweight

07 Jun 2022

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Inoue

Historical

84% Inoue

16% Donaire

Fight result: Naoya Inoue (TKO)
Model pick: Naoya Inoue 84.00%
Prediction result: Correct
Pick probability: 84.00%
Market odds: 1.2
Implied probability: 83.33%
Expected ROI (1u): 0.80%
Value edge: 0.67%
Lean assessment: Value

Odds updated 2026-04-10 13:02:08 UTC

Nonito Donaire

Full name: Nonito Gonzales Donaire Jr.
Age: 43
Fighter rank: #488
Current model score: 52.87
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.719
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 168cm / 173cm
Nationality: US
Career snapshot: 43-10-0 (28 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

98.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.970

58.3 Donaire Confidence High 0.820

Punching Accuracy

93.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.900

53.8 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.740

Hand Speed

94.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.880

52.0 Donaire Confidence High 0.760

Pace Pressure

86.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.820

40.7 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.680

Defensive Skill

88.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.800

47.6 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.720

Distance Footwork Control

90.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.810

45.0 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.700

Ring Iq Adaptability

93.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.870

69.7 Donaire Confidence High 0.800

Counter Punching

92.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.840

80.3 Donaire Confidence High 0.810

Chin

82.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.650

44.8 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.690

Cardio Engine

89.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.790

42.7 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.710

Style Profile Inoue: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger vs Donaire: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

18.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.700

8.0 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.560

Out Boxer

10.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.650

14.0 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.660

Power Slugger

27.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.850

27.0 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.740

Boxer Puncher

35.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.900

31.0 Donaire Confidence High 0.780

Counter Puncher

10.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.550

20.0 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.690

Stance Advantage Inoue Advantage Vs Southpaw vs Donaire Advantage Vs Southpaw Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

42.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.720

42.0 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.680

Vs Southpaw

58.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.720

58.0 Donaire Confidence Medium 0.680

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Inoue

33.33 Donaire

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Inoue

0 Donaire

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

100 Inoue

100 Donaire

Opponent Rating Last 3

80.91 Inoue

68.85 Donaire

Trend Score Last 5

100 Inoue

20 Donaire

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Inoue

58.67 Donaire

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

45 Inoue

28 Donaire

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

100 Inoue

100 Donaire

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

80.91 Inoue

68.85 Donaire

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Inoue

50 Donaire

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Inoue moves down 1 class.

Donaire stays in class.

Interaction: low advantage Donaire.

Advantage: Donaire

Height Reach Delta

Inoue height: 165.0cm reach: 171.0cm

Donaire height: 168.0cm reach: 173.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Donaire.

Advantage: Donaire +5.0cm

Stance Interaction

Inoue vs orthodox: 42.0

Donaire vs orthodox: 42.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Inoue style: Boxer Puncher

Donaire style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral