Naoya Inoue vs Luis Nery

Data as of: 2026-06-02 02:00:37 UTC Historical As-of 2024-05-06

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Inoue vs Nery 06 May 2024 Result: Inoue Historical Pick 77.58% Prediction: Correct Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Naoya Inoue (KO)

Model pick Naoya Inoue 77.58%

Prediction result Correct

Inoue odds 1.0714

Nery odds 13.4000

Inoue implied 93.34%

Nery implied 7.46%

Pick odds 1.0714

Pick implied 93.34%

Expected return 0.8312

ROI -16.88%

Edge -15.75%

Lean No Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-23 19:12:13 UTC

Fighter details

Naoya Inoue

Score 86.30 · 33-0-0 (27 KO)

Full name Naoya Inoue

Age 33 · Rank #2 · Confidence High 0.789

Stance Orthodox · H/R 165cm / 171cm · JP

The Ring Super bantamweight WBA Super bantamweight WBC Super bantamweight IBF Super bantamweight WBO Super bantamweight

Luis Nery

Score 69.42 · 37-2-0 (28 KO)

Full name Luis Esteban Nery Hernández

Age 31 · Rank #183 · Confidence Medium 0.672

Stance Southpaw · H/R 166cm / 171cm · MX

Naoya Inoue

Full name: Naoya Inoue
Age: 33
Fighter rank: #2
Current model score: 86.30
Fighter confidence: High 0.789
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 165cm / 171cm
Nationality: JP
Career snapshot: 33-0-0 (27 KO)

World titles

The Ring Super bantamweight WBA Super bantamweight WBC Super bantamweight IBF Super bantamweight WBO Super bantamweight

06 May 2024

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Inoue

Historical

78% Inoue

22% Nery

Fight result: Naoya Inoue (KO)
Model pick: Naoya Inoue 77.58%
Prediction result: Correct
Pick probability: 77.58%
Market odds: 1.0714
Implied probability: 93.34%
Expected ROI (1u): -16.88%
Value edge: -15.75%
Lean assessment: No Value

Odds updated 2026-04-23 19:12:13 UTC

Luis Nery

Full name: Luis Esteban Nery Hernández
Age: 31
Fighter rank: #183
Current model score: 69.42
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.672
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 166cm / 171cm
Nationality: MX
Career snapshot: 37-2-0 (28 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

98.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.970

91.0 Nery Confidence High 0.880

Punching Accuracy

93.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.900

79.0 Nery Confidence Medium 0.680

Hand Speed

94.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.880

83.0 Nery Confidence Medium 0.620

Pace Pressure

86.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.820

86.0 Nery Confidence High 0.780

Defensive Skill

88.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.800

66.0 Nery Confidence Medium 0.700

Distance Footwork Control

90.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.810

69.0 Nery Confidence Medium 0.600

Ring Iq Adaptability

93.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.870

74.0 Nery Confidence Medium 0.660

Counter Punching

92.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.840

76.0 Nery Confidence Medium 0.580

Chin

82.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.650

62.0 Nery Confidence Medium 0.730

Cardio Engine

89.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.790

72.0 Nery Confidence Medium 0.670

Style Profile Inoue: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger vs Nery: Power Slugger Pressure Swarmer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

18.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.700

28.0 Nery Confidence Medium 0.630

Out Boxer

10.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.650

8.0 Nery Confidence Medium 0.580

Power Slugger

27.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.850

35.0 Nery Confidence High 0.820

Boxer Puncher

35.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.900

22.0 Nery Confidence Medium 0.680

Counter Puncher

10.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.550

7.0 Nery Confidence Low 0.450

Stance Advantage Inoue Advantage Vs Southpaw vs Nery Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

42.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.720

58.0 Nery Confidence Medium 0.680

Vs Southpaw

58.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.720

42.0 Nery Confidence Medium 0.680

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Inoue

66.67 Nery

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Inoue

33.33 Nery

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

100 Inoue

33.33 Nery

Opponent Rating Last 3

80.91 Inoue

62.27 Nery

Trend Score Last 5

100 Inoue

80 Nery

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Inoue

81.94 Nery

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

45 Inoue

54.17 Nery

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

100 Inoue

33.33 Nery

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

80.91 Inoue

62.27 Nery

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Inoue

80 Nery

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Inoue stays in class.

Nery moves down 1 class.

Interaction: low advantage Inoue.

Advantage: Inoue

Height Reach Delta

Inoue height: 165.0cm reach: 171.0cm

Nery height: 166.0cm reach: 171.0cm

Interaction: low advantage Nery.

Advantage: Nery +1.0cm

Stance Interaction

Inoue vs southpaw: 58.0

Nery vs orthodox: 58.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Inoue style: Boxer Puncher

Nery style: Power Slugger

Interaction: medium advantage Inoue.

Advantage: Inoue