Naoya Inoue vs Marlon Tapales

Data as of: 2026-05-22 14:32:00 UTC Historical As-of 2023-12-26

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Inoue vs Tapales 26 Dec 2023 Result: Inoue Historical Pick 85.67% Prediction: Correct Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Naoya Inoue (KO)

Model pick Naoya Inoue 85.67%

Prediction result Correct

Inoue odds 1.0630

Tapales odds 13.5000

Inoue implied 94.07%

Tapales implied 7.41%

Pick odds 1.063

Pick implied 94.07%

Expected return 0.9107

ROI -8.93%

Edge -8.40%

Lean No Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-23 19:12:36 UTC

Fighter details

Naoya Inoue

Score 86.10 · 33-0-0 (27 KO)

Full name Naoya Inoue

Age 33 · Rank #1 · Confidence High 0.789

Stance Orthodox · H/R 165cm / 171cm · JP

The Ring Super bantamweight WBA Super bantamweight WBC Super bantamweight IBF Super bantamweight WBO Super bantamweight

Marlon Tapales

Score 63.72 · 41-5-0 (22 KO)

Full name Marlon Tañan Tapales

Age 34 · Rank #223 · Confidence Medium 0.630

Stance Southpaw · H/R 163cm / 165cm · PH

Naoya Inoue

Full name: Naoya Inoue
Age: 33
Fighter rank: #1
Current model score: 86.10
Fighter confidence: High 0.789
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 165cm / 171cm
Nationality: JP
Career snapshot: 33-0-0 (27 KO)

World titles

The Ring Super bantamweight WBA Super bantamweight WBC Super bantamweight IBF Super bantamweight WBO Super bantamweight

26 Dec 2023

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Inoue

Historical

86% Inoue

14% Tapales

Fight result: Naoya Inoue (KO)
Model pick: Naoya Inoue 85.67%
Prediction result: Correct
Pick probability: 85.67%
Market odds: 1.063
Implied probability: 94.07%
Expected ROI (1u): -8.93%
Value edge: -8.40%
Lean assessment: No Value

Odds updated 2026-04-23 19:12:36 UTC

Marlon Tapales

Full name: Marlon Tañan Tapales
Age: 34
Fighter rank: #223
Current model score: 63.72
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.630
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 163cm / 165cm
Nationality: PH
Career snapshot: 41-5-0 (22 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

98.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.970

75.0 Tapales Confidence High 0.790

Punching Accuracy

93.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.900

72.0 Tapales Confidence Medium 0.630

Hand Speed

94.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.880

71.0 Tapales Confidence Medium 0.580

Pace Pressure

86.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.820

68.0 Tapales Confidence Medium 0.610

Defensive Skill

88.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.800

64.0 Tapales Confidence Medium 0.600

Distance Footwork Control

90.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.810

69.0 Tapales Confidence Medium 0.590

Ring Iq Adaptability

93.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.870

76.0 Tapales Confidence Medium 0.700

Counter Punching

92.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.840

73.0 Tapales Confidence Medium 0.570

Chin

82.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.650

60.0 Tapales Confidence Medium 0.720

Cardio Engine

89.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.790

70.0 Tapales Confidence Medium 0.680

Style Profile Inoue: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger vs Tapales: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

18.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.700

17.0 Tapales Confidence Medium 0.540

Out Boxer

10.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.650

16.0 Tapales Confidence Medium 0.530

Power Slugger

27.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.850

21.0 Tapales Confidence Medium 0.660

Boxer Puncher

35.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.900

33.0 Tapales Confidence Medium 0.740

Counter Puncher

10.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.550

13.0 Tapales Confidence Low 0.450

Stance Advantage Inoue Advantage Vs Southpaw vs Tapales Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

42.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.720

67.0 Tapales Confidence Medium 0.660

Vs Southpaw

58.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.720

33.0 Tapales Confidence Medium 0.660

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Inoue

66.67 Tapales

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Inoue

66.67 Tapales

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

100 Inoue

100 Tapales

Opponent Rating Last 3

80.91 Inoue

51.67 Tapales

Trend Score Last 5

100 Inoue

80 Tapales

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Inoue

78.68 Tapales

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

45 Inoue

66.67 Tapales

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

100 Inoue

100 Tapales

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

80.91 Inoue

51.67 Tapales

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Inoue

80 Tapales

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Inoue stays in class.

Tapales moves down 2 classes.

Interaction: low advantage Inoue.

Advantage: Inoue

Height Reach Delta

Inoue height: 165.0cm reach: 171.0cm

Tapales height: 163.0cm reach: 165.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Inoue.

Advantage: Inoue +8.0cm

Stance Interaction

Inoue vs southpaw: 58.0

Tapales vs orthodox: 67.0

Interaction: low advantage Tapales.

Advantage: Tapales (Tapales +9.0 pts)

Style Interaction

Inoue style: Boxer Puncher

Tapales style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral