Naoya Inoue vs David Picasso

Data as of: 2026-05-22 14:32:00 UTC Historical As-of 2025-12-27

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Inoue vs Picasso 27 Dec 2025 Result: Inoue Historical Pick 60.00% Prediction: Correct Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Naoya Inoue (U D)

Model pick Naoya Inoue 60.00%

Prediction result Correct

Inoue odds 1.0200

Picasso odds 16.0000

Inoue implied 98.04%

Picasso implied 6.25%

Pick odds 1.02

Pick implied 98.04%

Expected return 0.6120

ROI -38.80%

Edge -38.04%

Lean No Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-21 18:57:58 UTC

Fighter details

Naoya Inoue

Score 86.83 · 33-0-0 (27 KO)

Full name Naoya Inoue

Age 33 · Rank #1 · Confidence High 0.789

Stance Orthodox · H/R 165cm / 171cm · JP

The Ring Super bantamweight WBA Super bantamweight WBC Super bantamweight IBF Super bantamweight WBO Super bantamweight

David Picasso

Score 68.07 · 32-1-1 (17 KO)

Full name Alan David Picasso Romero

Age 25 · Rank #130 · Confidence Medium 0.574

Stance Orthodox · H/R 173cm / 178cm · MX

Naoya Inoue

Full name: Naoya Inoue
Age: 33
Fighter rank: #1
Current model score: 86.83
Fighter confidence: High 0.789
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 165cm / 171cm
Nationality: JP
Career snapshot: 33-0-0 (27 KO)

World titles

The Ring Super bantamweight WBA Super bantamweight WBC Super bantamweight IBF Super bantamweight WBO Super bantamweight

27 Dec 2025

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Inoue

Historical

60% Inoue

40% Picasso

Fight result: Naoya Inoue (U D)
Model pick: Naoya Inoue 60.00%
Prediction result: Correct
Pick probability: 60.00%
Market odds: 1.02
Implied probability: 98.04%
Expected ROI (1u): -38.80%
Value edge: -38.04%
Lean assessment: No Value

Odds updated 2026-04-21 18:57:58 UTC

David Picasso

Full name: Alan David Picasso Romero
Age: 25
Fighter rank: #130
Current model score: 68.07
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.574
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 173cm / 178cm
Nationality: MX
Career snapshot: 32-1-1 (17 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

98.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.970

74.0 Picasso Confidence Medium 0.720

Punching Accuracy

93.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.900

78.0 Picasso Confidence Medium 0.630

Hand Speed

94.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.880

79.0 Picasso Confidence Medium 0.580

Pace Pressure

86.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.820

76.0 Picasso Confidence Medium 0.620

Defensive Skill

88.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.800

75.0 Picasso Confidence Medium 0.640

Distance Footwork Control

90.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.810

77.0 Picasso Confidence Medium 0.610

Ring Iq Adaptability

93.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.870

80.0 Picasso Confidence Medium 0.660

Counter Punching

92.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.840

73.0 Picasso Confidence Medium 0.500

Chin

82.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.650

72.0 Picasso Confidence Low 0.470

Cardio Engine

89.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.790

81.0 Picasso Confidence Medium 0.690

Style Profile Inoue: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger vs Picasso: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

18.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.700

14.0 Picasso Confidence Low 0.420

Out Boxer

10.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.650

24.0 Picasso Confidence Medium 0.580

Power Slugger

27.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.850

12.0 Picasso Confidence Medium 0.560

Boxer Puncher

35.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.900

38.0 Picasso Confidence Medium 0.690

Counter Puncher

10.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.550

12.0 Picasso Confidence Low 0.270

Stance Advantage Inoue Advantage Vs Southpaw vs Picasso Advantage Vs Southpaw Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

42.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.720

42.0 Picasso Confidence Medium 0.560

Vs Southpaw

58.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.720

58.0 Picasso Confidence Medium 0.560

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Inoue

66.67 Picasso

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Inoue

33.33 Picasso

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

100 Inoue

66.67 Picasso

Opponent Rating Last 3

80.91 Inoue

63.5 Picasso

Trend Score Last 5

100 Inoue

80 Picasso

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Inoue

81.72 Picasso

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

45 Inoue

42.47 Picasso

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

100 Inoue

66.67 Picasso

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

80.91 Inoue

63.5 Picasso

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Inoue

90 Picasso

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Inoue stays in class.

Picasso stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Inoue height: 165.0cm reach: 171.0cm

Picasso height: 173.0cm reach: 178.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Picasso.

Advantage: Picasso +15.0cm

Stance Interaction

Inoue vs orthodox: 42.0

Picasso vs orthodox: 42.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Inoue style: Boxer Puncher

Picasso style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral