Naoya Inoue vs TJ Doheny

Data as of: 2026-05-22 14:32:00 UTC Historical As-of 2024-09-03

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Inoue vs Doheny 03 Sep 2024 Result: Inoue Historical Pick 81.68% Prediction: Correct Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Naoya Inoue (TKO)

Model pick Naoya Inoue 81.68%

Prediction result Correct

Inoue odds 1.0200

Doheny odds 18.0000

Inoue implied 98.04%

Doheny implied 5.56%

Pick odds 1.02

Pick implied 98.04%

Expected return 0.8331

ROI -16.69%

Edge -16.36%

Lean No Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-04-23 19:11:45 UTC

Fighter details

Naoya Inoue

Score 86.94 · 33-0-0 (27 KO)

Full name Naoya Inoue

Age 33 · Rank #1 · Confidence High 0.789

Stance Orthodox · H/R 165cm / 171cm · JP

The Ring Super bantamweight WBA Super bantamweight WBC Super bantamweight IBF Super bantamweight WBO Super bantamweight

TJ Doheny

Score 62.64 · 26-6-0 (20 KO)

Full name Terence John Doheny

Age 39 · Rank #329 · Confidence Medium 0.595

Stance Southpaw · H/R 168cm / 173cm · IE

Naoya Inoue

Full name: Naoya Inoue
Age: 33
Fighter rank: #1
Current model score: 86.94
Fighter confidence: High 0.789
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 165cm / 171cm
Nationality: JP
Career snapshot: 33-0-0 (27 KO)

World titles

The Ring Super bantamweight WBA Super bantamweight WBC Super bantamweight IBF Super bantamweight WBO Super bantamweight

03 Sep 2024

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Inoue

Historical

82% Inoue

18% Doheny

Fight result: Naoya Inoue (TKO)
Model pick: Naoya Inoue 81.68%
Prediction result: Correct
Pick probability: 81.68%
Market odds: 1.02
Implied probability: 98.04%
Expected ROI (1u): -16.69%
Value edge: -16.36%
Lean assessment: No Value

Odds updated 2026-04-23 19:11:45 UTC

TJ Doheny

Full name: Terence John Doheny
Age: 39
Fighter rank: #329
Current model score: 62.64
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.595
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 168cm / 173cm
Nationality: IE
Career snapshot: 26-6-0 (20 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

98.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.970

84.0 Doheny Confidence High 0.840

Punching Accuracy

93.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.900

71.0 Doheny Confidence Medium 0.580

Hand Speed

94.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.880

68.0 Doheny Confidence Low 0.490

Pace Pressure

86.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.820

74.0 Doheny Confidence Medium 0.610

Defensive Skill

88.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.800

63.0 Doheny Confidence Medium 0.560

Distance Footwork Control

90.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.810

64.0 Doheny Confidence Medium 0.500

Ring Iq Adaptability

93.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.870

69.0 Doheny Confidence Medium 0.570

Counter Punching

92.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.840

66.0 Doheny Confidence Low 0.450

Chin

82.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.650

61.0 Doheny Confidence Medium 0.580

Cardio Engine

89.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.790

67.0 Doheny Confidence Medium 0.590

Style Profile Inoue: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger vs Doheny: Power Slugger Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

18.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.700

14.0 Doheny Confidence Medium 0.560

Out Boxer

10.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.650

12.0 Doheny Confidence Medium 0.570

Power Slugger

27.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.850

42.0 Doheny Confidence High 0.840

Boxer Puncher

35.0 Inoue Confidence High 0.900

24.0 Doheny Confidence Medium 0.680

Counter Puncher

10.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.550

8.0 Doheny Confidence Low 0.430

Stance Advantage Inoue Advantage Vs Southpaw vs Doheny Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

42.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.720

58.0 Doheny Confidence Medium 0.630

Vs Southpaw

58.0 Inoue Confidence Medium 0.720

42.0 Doheny Confidence Medium 0.630

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Inoue

33.33 Doheny

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Inoue

33.33 Doheny

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

100 Inoue

0 Doheny

Opponent Rating Last 3

80.91 Inoue

70.85 Doheny

Trend Score Last 5

100 Inoue

60 Doheny

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Inoue

59.77 Doheny

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

45 Inoue

49.43 Doheny

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

100 Inoue

0 Doheny

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

80.91 Inoue

70.85 Doheny

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Inoue

60 Doheny

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Inoue stays in class.

Doheny moves down 1 classes.

Interaction: low advantage Inoue.

Advantage: Inoue

Height Reach Delta

Inoue height: 165.0cm reach: 171.0cm

Doheny height: 168.0cm reach: 173.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Doheny.

Advantage: Doheny +5.0cm

Stance Interaction

Inoue vs southpaw: 58.0

Doheny vs orthodox: 58.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Inoue style: Boxer Puncher

Doheny style: Power Slugger

Interaction: medium advantage Inoue.

Advantage: Inoue