Jesse Rodriguez vs Antonio Vargas

Data as of: 2026-05-20 14:32:05 UTC Current odds

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Rodriguez vs Vargas 13 Jun 2026 Model pick: Rodriguez Current odds 85.59% ROI: -11.84% Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Model pick Jesse Rodriguez 85.59%

Rodriguez odds 1.0300

Vargas odds 12.5000

Rodriguez implied 97.09%

Vargas implied 8.00%

Pick odds 1.03

Pick implied 97.09%

Expected return 0.8816

ROI -11.84%

Edge -11.49%

Lean No Value

Bout Current odds

Odds updated 2026-05-18 08:14:05 UTC

Fighter details

Jesse Rodriguez

Score 81.95 · 23-0-0 (16 KO)

Full name Jesse James Rodriguez Franco

Age 26 · Rank #6 · Confidence Medium 0.704

Stance Southpaw · H/R 163cm / 170cm · US

The Ring Super flyweight WBA Super flyweight WBC Super flyweight WBO Super flyweight

Antonio Vargas

Score 62.84 · 19-1-1 (11 KO)

Full name Antonio Vargas

Age 29 · Rank Unranked · Confidence Medium 0.566

Stance Orthodox · H/R 166cm / 168cm · US

Jesse Rodriguez

Full name: Jesse James Rodriguez Franco
Age: 26
Fighter rank: #6
Current model score: 81.95
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.704
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 163cm / 170cm
Nationality: US
Career snapshot: 23-0-0 (16 KO)

World titles

The Ring Super flyweight WBA Super flyweight WBC Super flyweight WBO Super flyweight

13 Jun 2026

Projected Win Split

Model pick

Rodriguez

Current odds

86% Rodriguez

14% Vargas

Model pick: Jesse Rodriguez 85.59%
Win probability: 85.59%
Market odds: 1.03
Implied probability: 97.09%
Expected ROI (1u): -11.84%
Value edge: -11.49%
Lean assessment: No Value

Odds updated 2026-05-18 08:14:05 UTC

Antonio Vargas

Full name: Antonio Vargas
Age: 29
Fighter rank: Unranked
Current model score: 62.84
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.566
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 166cm / 168cm
Nationality: US
Career snapshot: 19-1-1 (11 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

85.0 Rodriguez Confidence High 0.830

75.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.720

Punching Accuracy

89.0 Rodriguez Confidence High 0.820

71.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.560

Hand Speed

91.0 Rodriguez Confidence High 0.790

73.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.500

Pace Pressure

84.0 Rodriguez Confidence Medium 0.740

76.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.690

Defensive Skill

86.0 Rodriguez Confidence Medium 0.720

63.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.660

Distance Footwork Control

88.0 Rodriguez Confidence High 0.750

68.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.540

Ring Iq Adaptability

92.0 Rodriguez Confidence High 0.840

72.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.630

Counter Punching

87.0 Rodriguez Confidence Medium 0.740

66.0 Vargas Confidence Low 0.420

Chin

83.0 Rodriguez Confidence Medium 0.580

58.0 Vargas Confidence High 0.750

Cardio Engine

86.0 Rodriguez Confidence Medium 0.720

78.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.740

Style Profile Rodriguez: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer vs Vargas: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

18.0 Rodriguez Confidence Medium 0.580

18.0 Vargas Confidence Low 0.450

Out Boxer

20.0 Rodriguez Confidence Medium 0.660

21.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.520

Power Slugger

12.0 Rodriguez Confidence Medium 0.600

17.0 Vargas Confidence Low 0.490

Boxer Puncher

38.0 Rodriguez Confidence High 0.790

34.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.670

Counter Puncher

12.0 Rodriguez Confidence Low 0.430

10.0 Vargas Confidence Low 0.290

Stance Advantage Rodriguez Advantage Vs Orthodox vs Vargas Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

68.0 Rodriguez Confidence High 0.760

72.0 Vargas Confidence Medium 0.620

Vs Southpaw

32.0 Rodriguez Confidence Medium 0.620

28.0 Vargas Confidence Low 0.380

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Rodriguez

66.67 Vargas

Ko Rate Last 3

100 Rodriguez

66.67 Vargas

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Rodriguez

33.33 Vargas

Opponent Rating Last 3

71.71 Rodriguez

59.71 Vargas

Trend Score Last 5

100 Rodriguez

90 Vargas

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Rodriguez

80.56 Vargas

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Rodriguez

66.67 Vargas

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Rodriguez

33.33 Vargas

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

71.71 Rodriguez

59.71 Vargas

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Rodriguez

95 Vargas

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Rodriguez moves up 1 classes.

Vargas stays in class.

Interaction: low advantage Vargas.

Advantage: Vargas

Reach vs Height Delta

Rodriguez reach: 170.0cm height: 163.0cm delta: 7.0cm

Vargas reach: 168.0cm height: 166.0cm delta: 2.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Rodriguez.

Advantage: Rodriguez

Stance Interaction

Rodriguez advantage against orthodox: 68.0

Vargas advantage against orthodox: 72.0

Interaction: medium advantage Rodriguez.

Advantage: Rodriguez

Style Interaction

Rodriguez style: Boxer Puncher

Vargas style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral