Dmitrii Bivol vs Canelo Álvarez

Data as of: 2026-05-13 14:32:09 UTC Historical As-of 2022-05-07

Analysis

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bivol vs Álvarez 07 May 2022 Result: Bivol Historical Pick 57.54% Prediction: Incorrect Tap to expand Analysis

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Dmitry Bivol (U D)

Model pick Canelo Álvarez 57.54%

Prediction result Incorrect

Bivol odds 5.5000

Álvarez odds 1.2381

Bivol implied 18.18%

Álvarez implied 80.77%

Pick odds 1.2381

Pick implied 80.77%

Expected return 0.7125

ROI -28.75%

Edge -23.22%

Lean No Value

Bout Historical

Odds updated 2026-03-23 16:23:07 UTC

Fighter details

Dmitrii Bivol

Score 81.23 · 24-1-0 (12 KO)

Full name Dmitry Yuryevich Bivol

Age 35 · Rank #8 · Confidence High 0.805

Stance Orthodox · H/R 183cm / 183cm · RU

The Ring Light heavyweight WBA Light heavyweight IBF Light heavyweight WBO Light heavyweight

Canelo Álvarez

Score 81.31 · 63-3-2 (39 KO)

Full name Santos Saúl Álvarez Barragán

Age 35 · Rank #13 · Confidence High 0.774

Stance Orthodox · H/R 171cm / 179cm · MX

Dmitrii Bivol

Full name: Dmitry Yuryevich Bivol
Age: 35
Fighter rank: #8
Current model score: 81.23
Fighter confidence: High 0.805
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 183cm / 183cm
Nationality: RU
Career snapshot: 24-1-0 (12 KO)

World titles

The Ring Light heavyweight WBA Light heavyweight IBF Light heavyweight WBO Light heavyweight

07 May 2022

Pre-fight Projection

Result

Bivol

Historical

42% Bivol

58% Álvarez

Fight result: Dmitry Bivol (U D)
Model pick: Canelo Álvarez 57.54%
Prediction result: Incorrect
Pick probability: 57.54%
Market odds: 1.2381
Implied probability: 80.77%
Expected ROI (1u): -28.75%
Value edge: -23.22%
Lean assessment: No Value

Odds updated 2026-03-23 16:23:07 UTC

Canelo Álvarez

Full name: Santos Saúl Álvarez Barragán
Age: 35
Fighter rank: #13
Current model score: 81.31
Fighter confidence: High 0.774
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 171cm / 179cm
Nationality: MX
Career snapshot: 63-3-2 (39 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

78.0 Bivol Confidence High 0.790

83.7 Álvarez Confidence High 0.840

Punching Accuracy

88.0 Bivol Confidence High 0.850

88.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.850

Hand Speed

84.0 Bivol Confidence High 0.800

84.8 Álvarez Confidence High 0.770

Pace Pressure

74.0 Bivol Confidence Medium 0.720

76.2 Álvarez Confidence High 0.780

Defensive Skill

91.0 Bivol Confidence High 0.880

88.4 Álvarez Confidence High 0.860

Distance Footwork Control

92.0 Bivol Confidence High 0.890

85.2 Álvarez Confidence High 0.790

Ring Iq Adaptability

93.0 Bivol Confidence High 0.880

88.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.880

Counter Punching

87.0 Bivol Confidence High 0.820

88.6 Álvarez Confidence High 0.880

Chin

86.0 Bivol Confidence High 0.770

88.4 Álvarez Confidence High 0.830

Cardio Engine

89.0 Bivol Confidence High 0.850

76.9 Álvarez Confidence High 0.760

Style Profile Bivol: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher vs Álvarez: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

8.0 Bivol Confidence Medium 0.720

14.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.630

Out Boxer

41.0 Bivol Confidence High 0.900

11.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.550

Power Slugger

7.0 Bivol Confidence High 0.820

20.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.730

Boxer Puncher

31.0 Bivol Confidence High 0.870

37.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.830

Counter Puncher

13.0 Bivol Confidence High 0.760

18.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.680

Stance Advantage Bivol Advantage Vs Orthodox vs Álvarez Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

58.0 Bivol Confidence Medium 0.680

58.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.750

Vs Southpaw

42.0 Bivol Confidence Medium 0.680

42.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.750

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Bivol

66.67 Álvarez

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Bivol

0 Álvarez

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

0 Bivol

66.67 Álvarez

Opponent Rating Last 3

73.06 Bivol

71.73 Álvarez

Trend Score Last 5

80 Bivol

80 Álvarez

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

83.33 Bivol

80.26 Álvarez

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

41.67 Bivol

30 Álvarez

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

0 Bivol

66.67 Álvarez

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

73.06 Bivol

71.73 Álvarez

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

90 Bivol

80 Álvarez

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Bivol stays in class.

Álvarez moves up 1 classes.

Interaction: low advantage Bivol.

Advantage: Bivol

Reach vs Height Delta

Bivol reach: 183.0cm height: 183.0cm delta: 0.0cm

Álvarez reach: 179.0cm height: 171.0cm delta: 8.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Álvarez.

Advantage: Álvarez

Stance Interaction

Bivol advantage against orthodox: 58.0

Álvarez advantage against orthodox: 58.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Bivol style: Out Boxer

Álvarez style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral