Dmitry Bivol vs Canelo Álvarez

Data as of: 2026-04-20 04:00:06 UTC

Matchup weight class

No persisted bout weight class found. Using inferred fighter division: Light heavyweight. Change this if needed.

Bivol vs Álvarez 07 May 2022 Winner: Álvarez Custom 53.23% ROI: -34.09% Tap to expand

Change fighters and profiles

Matchup weight class

No persisted bout weight class found. Using inferred fighter division: Light heavyweight. Change this if needed.

Bout details

Bivol odds 5.5000

Álvarez odds 1.2381

Bivol implied 18.18%

Álvarez implied 80.77%

Pick odds 1.2381

Pick implied 80.77%

Expected return 0.6591

ROI -34.09%

Edge -27.54%

Lean No Value

2026-03-23 16:23:07 UTC

Fighter details

Dmitry Bivol

Score 83.87 · 24-1-0 (12 KO)

Age 35 · Rank #5 · Confidence Medium 0.741

Stance Orthodox · H/R 183cm / 183cm · RU

Canelo Álvarez

Score 81.04 · 63-3-2 (39 KO)

Age 35 · Rank #13 · Confidence High 0.774

Stance Orthodox · H/R 171cm / 179cm · MX

Dmitry Bivol

Age: 35
Fighter rank: #5
Current model score: 83.87
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.741
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 183cm / 183cm
Nationality: RU
Career snapshot: 24-1-0 (12 KO)

07 May 2022

Projected Win Split

Winner

Álvarez

Custom

47% Bivol

53% Álvarez

Win probability: 53.23%
Market odds: 1.2381
Implied probability: 80.77%
Expected ROI (1u): -34.09%
Value edge: -27.54%
Lean assessment: No Value

2026-03-23 16:23:07 UTC

Canelo Álvarez

Age: 35
Fighter rank: #13
Current model score: 81.04
Fighter confidence: High 0.774
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 171cm / 179cm
Nationality: MX
Career snapshot: 63-3-2 (39 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

79.4 Bivol Confidence High 0.780

83.7 Álvarez Confidence High 0.840

Punching Accuracy

90.3 Bivol Confidence High 0.840

88.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.850

Hand Speed

92.1 Bivol Confidence High 0.790

84.8 Álvarez Confidence High 0.770

Pace Pressure

79.7 Bivol Confidence Medium 0.720

76.2 Álvarez Confidence High 0.780

Defensive Skill

92.3 Bivol Confidence High 0.870

88.4 Álvarez Confidence High 0.860

Distance Footwork Control

90.9 Bivol Confidence High 0.870

85.2 Álvarez Confidence High 0.790

Ring Iq Adaptability

87.9 Bivol Confidence High 0.860

88.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.880

Counter Punching

92.1 Bivol Confidence High 0.820

88.6 Álvarez Confidence High 0.880

Chin

93.0 Bivol Confidence Medium 0.740

88.4 Álvarez Confidence High 0.830

Cardio Engine

87.9 Bivol Confidence High 0.810

76.9 Álvarez Confidence High 0.760

Style Profile Bivol: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher vs Álvarez: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

8.0 Bivol Confidence Medium 0.520

14.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.630

Out Boxer

44.0 Bivol Confidence High 0.760

11.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.550

Power Slugger

10.0 Bivol Confidence Medium 0.630

20.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.730

Boxer Puncher

30.0 Bivol Confidence Medium 0.720

37.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.830

Counter Puncher

8.0 Bivol Confidence Low 0.420

18.0 Álvarez Confidence Medium 0.680

Stance Advantage Bivol Advantage Vs Orthodox vs Álvarez Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

58.0 Bivol Confidence Medium 0.720

58.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.750

Vs Southpaw

42.0 Bivol Confidence Medium 0.720

42.0 Álvarez Confidence High 0.750

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Bivol Confidence High 1.000

66.67 Álvarez Confidence High 1.000

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Bivol Confidence High 1.000

0 Álvarez Confidence High 1.000

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

0 Bivol Confidence High 1.000

66.67 Álvarez Confidence High 1.000

Opponent Rating Last 3

72.25 Bivol Confidence High 1.000

71.73 Álvarez Confidence High 1.000

Trend Score Last 5

80 Bivol Confidence High 1.000

80 Álvarez Confidence High 1.000

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

83.33 Bivol Confidence High 1.000

80.26 Álvarez Confidence High 1.000

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

41.67 Bivol Confidence High 1.000

30 Álvarez Confidence High 1.000

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

0 Bivol Confidence High 1.000

66.67 Álvarez Confidence High 1.000

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

72.25 Bivol Confidence High 1.000

71.73 Álvarez Confidence High 1.000

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

90 Bivol Confidence High 1.000

80 Álvarez Confidence High 1.000

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Bivol stays in class.

Álvarez moves up 1 classes.

Interaction: low advantage Bivol.

Advantage: Bivol

Reach vs Height Delta

Bivol reach: 183.0cm height: 183.0cm delta: 0.0cm

Álvarez reach: 179.0cm height: 171.0cm delta: 8.0cm

Interaction: medium advantage Álvarez.

Advantage: Álvarez

Stance Interaction

Bivol advantage against orthodox: 58.0

Álvarez advantage against orthodox: 58.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Bivol style: Out Boxer

Álvarez style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral