Junto Nakatani vs Alejandro Santiago

Data as of: 2026-06-10 01:53:32 UTC Historical result As-of 2024-02-24

Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Nakatani vs Santiago 24 Feb 2024 Result: Nakatani Historical result Pick 87.62% Prediction: Correct Bantamweight Tap to expand Analysis

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Matchup weight class

Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Junto Nakatani (TKO)

Historical lean Junto Nakatani 87.62%

Prediction result Correct

Nakatani odds 1.1429

Santiago odds 7.5000

Nakatani implied 87.50%

Santiago implied 13.33%

Closing odds 1.1429

Closing implied 87.50%

Expected return 1.0014

ROI 0.14%

Edge 0.13%

Lean Value

Bout Historical result

Closing odds captured 2026-04-10 12:58:28 UTC

Fighter details

Junto Nakatani

Score 77.30 · 32-1-0 (24 KO)

Full name Junto Nakatani

Age 28 · Rank #24 · Confidence Medium 0.681

Stance Southpaw · H/R 173cm / 174cm · JP

The Ring Bantamweight

Alejandro Santiago

Score 66.07 · 25-5-3 (14 KO)

Full name Agustín Alexandro Santiago Barrios

Age 30 · Rank #235 · Confidence Medium 0.604

Stance Orthodox · H/R 159cm / 166cm · MX

Junto Nakatani

Full name: Junto Nakatani
Age: 28
Fighter rank: #24
Current model score: 77.30
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.681
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 173cm / 174cm
Nationality: JP
Career snapshot: 32-1-0 (24 KO)

World titles

The Ring Bantamweight

24 Feb 2024

Confirmed Result

Result

Nakatani

Historical result

100% Nakatani

0% Santiago

Fight result: Junto Nakatani (TKO)
Historical lean: Junto Nakatani 87.62%
Prediction result: Correct
Historical win probability: 87.62%
Closing odds: 1.1429
Closing implied: 87.50%
Expected ROI (1u): 0.14%
Value edge: 0.13%
Lean assessment: Value

Closing odds captured 2026-04-10 12:58:28 UTC

Alejandro Santiago

Full name: Agustín Alexandro Santiago Barrios
Age: 30
Fighter rank: #235
Current model score: 66.07
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.604
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 159cm / 166cm
Nationality: MX
Career snapshot: 25-5-3 (14 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

90.0 Nakatani Confidence High 0.860

58.9 Santiago Confidence Medium 0.720

Punching Accuracy

85.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.730

70.7 Santiago Confidence Medium 0.600

Hand Speed

87.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.700

74.7 Santiago Confidence Medium 0.580

Pace Pressure

78.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.680

77.9 Santiago Confidence Medium 0.680

Defensive Skill

82.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.660

77.8 Santiago Confidence Medium 0.640

Distance Footwork Control

84.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.690

71.8 Santiago Confidence Medium 0.570

Ring Iq Adaptability

86.0 Nakatani Confidence High 0.760

77.1 Santiago Confidence Medium 0.710

Counter Punching

83.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.670

72.3 Santiago Confidence Medium 0.520

Chin

80.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.560

73.1 Santiago Confidence Medium 0.670

Cardio Engine

84.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.720

77.4 Santiago Confidence High 0.750

Style Profile Nakatani: Boxer-Puncher Power Slugger vs Santiago: Boxer-Puncher Out-Boxer Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

12.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.530

18.0 Santiago Confidence Low 0.460

Out Boxer

16.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.610

22.0 Santiago Confidence Medium 0.520

Power Slugger

24.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.720

12.0 Santiago Confidence Medium 0.550

Boxer Puncher

34.0 Nakatani Confidence High 0.770

38.0 Santiago Confidence Medium 0.680

Counter Puncher

14.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.500

10.0 Santiago Confidence Low 0.340

Stance Interaction Nakatani vs orthodox · Santiago vs southpaw Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

72.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.710

62.0 Santiago Confidence Medium 0.640

Vs Southpaw

28.0 Nakatani Confidence Medium 0.710

38.0 Santiago Confidence Medium 0.640

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

66.67 Nakatani

33.33 Santiago

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Nakatani

0 Santiago

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

100 Nakatani

0 Santiago

Opponent Rating Last 3

68.9 Nakatani

77.75 Santiago

Trend Score Last 5

80 Nakatani

60 Santiago

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

83.33 Nakatani

56.67 Santiago

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

55 Nakatani

20 Santiago

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

100 Nakatani

0 Santiago

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

68.9 Nakatani

77.75 Santiago

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

90 Nakatani

70 Santiago

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Nakatani moves down 1 class.

Santiago stays in class.

Interaction: low advantage Santiago.

Advantage: Santiago

Height Reach Delta

Nakatani height: 173.0cm reach: 174.0cm

Santiago height: 159.0cm reach: 166.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Nakatani.

Advantage: Nakatani +22.0cm

Stance Interaction

Nakatani vs orthodox: 72.0

Santiago vs southpaw: 38.0

Interaction: medium advantage Nakatani.

Advantage: Nakatani

Style Interaction

Nakatani style: Boxer Puncher

Santiago style: Boxer Puncher

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral