Shakur Stevenson vs Josh Padley

Data as of: 2026-04-20 04:00:06 UTC

Matchup weight class

No persisted bout weight class found. Using inferred fighter division: Super lightweight. Change this if needed.

Stevenson vs Padley 22 Feb 2025 Winner: Stevenson Custom 85.34% ROI: -12.52% Tap to expand

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Matchup weight class

No persisted bout weight class found. Using inferred fighter division: Super lightweight. Change this if needed.

Bout details

Stevenson odds 1.0250

Padley odds 17.0000

Stevenson implied 97.56%

Padley implied 5.88%

Pick odds 1.025

Pick implied 97.56%

Expected return 0.8748

ROI -12.52%

Edge -12.22%

Lean No Value

2026-04-10 12:56:08 UTC

Fighter details

Shakur Stevenson

Score 85.56 · 25-0-0 (11 KO)

Age 28 · Rank #3 · Confidence High 0.826

Stance Southpaw · H/R 173cm / 173cm · US

Josh Padley

Score 61.81 · 18-1-0 (6 KO)

Age 30 · Rank #235 · Confidence Medium 0.576

Stance Orthodox · H/R 170cm / N/A · GB

Shakur Stevenson

Age: 28
Fighter rank: #3
Current model score: 85.56
Fighter confidence: High 0.826
Stance: Southpaw
Height/Reach: 173cm / 173cm
Nationality: US
Career snapshot: 25-0-0 (11 KO)

22 Feb 2025

Projected Win Split

Winner

Stevenson

Custom

85% Stevenson

15% Padley

Win probability: 85.34%
Market odds: 1.025
Implied probability: 97.56%
Expected ROI (1u): -12.52%
Value edge: -12.22%
Lean assessment: No Value

2026-04-10 12:56:08 UTC

Josh Padley

Age: 30
Fighter rank: #235
Current model score: 61.81
Fighter confidence: Medium 0.576
Stance: Orthodox
Height/Reach: 170cm / N/A
Nationality: GB
Career snapshot: 18-1-0 (6 KO)

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

84.5 Stevenson Confidence High 0.800

48.2 Padley Confidence Medium 0.640

Punching Accuracy

90.3 Stevenson Confidence High 0.900

68.3 Padley Confidence Medium 0.580

Hand Speed

92.1 Stevenson Confidence High 0.860

68.5 Padley Confidence Medium 0.520

Pace Pressure

86.3 Stevenson Confidence Medium 0.730

74.4 Padley Confidence Medium 0.610

Defensive Skill

92.3 Stevenson Confidence High 0.920

75.1 Padley Confidence Medium 0.560

Distance Footwork Control

90.9 Stevenson Confidence High 0.890

73.2 Padley Confidence Medium 0.550

Ring Iq Adaptability

87.9 Stevenson Confidence High 0.900

77.4 Padley Confidence Medium 0.680

Counter Punching

92.1 Stevenson Confidence High 0.870

72.0 Padley Confidence Low 0.490

Chin

93.0 Stevenson Confidence Medium 0.640

68.1 Padley Confidence Medium 0.500

Cardio Engine

87.9 Stevenson Confidence High 0.820

76.4 Padley Confidence Medium 0.670

Style Profile Stevenson: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher vs Padley: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

5.0 Stevenson Confidence High 0.840

14.0 Padley Confidence Low 0.420

Out Boxer

50.0 Stevenson Confidence High 0.940

34.0 Padley Confidence Medium 0.670

Power Slugger

6.0 Stevenson Confidence High 0.890

8.0 Padley Confidence Medium 0.740

Boxer Puncher

20.0 Stevenson Confidence High 0.870

30.0 Padley Confidence Medium 0.630

Counter Puncher

19.0 Stevenson Confidence High 0.790

14.0 Padley Confidence Low 0.310

Stance Advantage Stevenson Advantage Vs Orthodox vs Padley Advantage Vs Orthodox Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

58.0 Stevenson Confidence Medium 0.690

63.0 Padley Confidence Medium 0.610

Vs Southpaw

42.0 Stevenson Confidence Medium 0.690

37.0 Padley Confidence Medium 0.610

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

100 Stevenson Confidence High 1.000

100 Padley Confidence High 1.000

Ko Rate Last 3

33.33 Stevenson Confidence High 1.000

66.67 Padley Confidence High 1.000

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

66.67 Stevenson Confidence High 1.000

100 Padley Confidence High 1.000

Opponent Rating Last 3

72.89 Stevenson Confidence High 1.000

49.67 Padley Confidence High 1.000

Trend Score Last 5

100 Stevenson Confidence High 1.000

85 Padley Confidence High 1.000

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

100 Stevenson Confidence High 1.000

100 Padley Confidence High 1.000

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

39.39 Stevenson Confidence High 1.000

66.67 Padley Confidence High 1.000

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

66.67 Stevenson Confidence High 1.000

100 Padley Confidence High 1.000

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

72.89 Stevenson Confidence High 1.000

50.16 Padley Confidence High 1.000

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

100 Stevenson Confidence High 1.000

92.5 Padley Confidence High 1.000

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Stevenson stays in class.

Padley moves up 1 classes.

Interaction: low advantage Stevenson.

Advantage: Stevenson

Reach vs Height Delta

Stevenson reach: 173.0cm height: 173.0cm delta: 0.0cm

Padley reach: N/A height: 170.0cm delta: N/A

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Stance Interaction

Stevenson advantage against orthodox: 58.0

Padley advantage against orthodox: 63.0

Interaction: medium advantage Stevenson.

Advantage: Stevenson

Style Interaction

Stevenson style: Out Boxer

Padley style: Out Boxer

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral