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Coley vs Macias 01 Aug 2026 Result: Macias Time-safe result Pick 72.94% Prediction: Correct Super welterweight Tap to expand Analysis
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Using confirmed bout weight class for matchup factors.

Bout details

Fight result Fabian Macias

Pre-fight pick Fabian Macias 72.94%

Prediction result Correct

Coley odds 7.6000

Macias odds 1.0625

Coley implied 13.16%

Macias implied 94.12%

Pre-fight odds 1.0625

Pre-fight implied 94.12%

Expected return 0.7750

ROI -22.50%

Edge -21.18%

Lean No Value

Bout Time-safe result

Pre-fight prediction locked 2026-07-30 02:14:21 UTC

Fighter details
AC
Aaron Coley

Score 48.36 · 1-5-0 (1 KO)

Full name Aaron Pardee Coley

Age 35 · Rank #653 · Confidence Low 0.431

Stance Southpaw · H/R 178cm / 175cm · US

FM
Fabian Macias

Score 60.15 · 11-0-0 (8 KO)

Full name Fabian Guzman Macias

Age 23 · Rank #367 · Confidence Medium 0.502

Stance Orthodox · H/R 183cm / 188cm · US

Subjective Stats

Methodology

Punching Power

60.0 Coley Confidence Medium 0.500

79.0 Macias Confidence High 0.750

Punching Accuracy

63.0 Coley Confidence Low 0.420

69.0 Macias Confidence Medium 0.550

Hand Speed

61.0 Coley Confidence Low 0.350

67.0 Macias Confidence Low 0.450

Pace Pressure

58.0 Coley Confidence Low 0.380

72.0 Macias Confidence Medium 0.600

Defensive Skill

55.0 Coley Confidence Low 0.440

63.0 Macias Confidence Low 0.400

Distance Footwork Control

59.0 Coley Confidence Low 0.370

66.0 Macias Confidence Low 0.450

Ring IQ Adaptability

62.0 Coley Confidence Low 0.430

68.0 Macias Confidence Medium 0.500

Counter Punching

60.0 Coley Confidence Low 0.340

61.0 Macias Confidence Low 0.350

Chin

52.0 Coley Confidence Low 0.480

64.0 Macias Confidence Low 0.350

Cardio Engine

64.0 Coley Confidence Low 0.460

70.0 Macias Confidence Medium 0.600

Style Profile Coley: Out-Boxer Boxer-Puncher  vs  Macias: Power Slugger Boxer-Puncher Expand

Style rows below share a 100-point allocation for each fighter. They are not separate 100-point scales.

Pressure Swarmer

12.0 Coley Confidence Low 0.280

18.0 Macias Confidence Low 0.420

Out-Boxer

34.0 Coley Confidence Medium 0.570

16.0 Macias Confidence Low 0.440

Power Slugger

16.0 Coley Confidence Low 0.340

31.0 Macias Confidence Medium 0.680

Boxer-Puncher

26.0 Coley Confidence Medium 0.520

27.0 Macias Confidence Medium 0.580

Counter-Puncher

12.0 Coley Confidence Very Low 0.220

8.0 Macias Confidence Low 0.270

Stance Interaction Coley vs orthodox  ·  Macias vs southpaw Expand

Stance rows below also share a 100-point allocation for each fighter rather than separate 100-point scales.

Vs Orthodox

38.0 Coley Confidence Medium 0.610

62.0 Macias Confidence Medium 0.570

Vs Southpaw

62.0 Coley Confidence Medium 0.610

38.0 Macias Confidence Medium 0.570

Objective Stats

Methodology

Win Rate Last 3

0 Coley

100 Macias

Ko Rate Last 3

0 Coley

33.33 Macias

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m

33.33 Coley

100 Macias

Opponent Rating Last 3

80.45 Coley

57.78 Macias

Trend Score Last 5

20 Coley

100 Macias

Win Rate Last 3 Relative

40 Coley

100 Macias

Ko Rate Last 3 Relative

17.5 Coley

60.42 Macias

Activity Last 3 In Last 12m Relative

33.33 Coley

100 Macias

Opponent Rating Last 3 Relative

80.45 Coley

57.78 Macias

Trend Score Last 5 Relative

50 Coley

100 Macias

Matchup Factors

Weight Class Difference

Coley stays in class.

Macias stays in class.

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Height Reach Delta

Coley height: 178.0cm reach: 175.0cm

Macias height: 183.0cm reach: 188.0cm

Interaction: high advantage Macias.

Advantage: Macias +18.0cm

Stance Interaction

Coley vs orthodox: 38.0

Macias vs southpaw: 38.0

Interaction: No advantage.

Advantage: Neutral

Style Interaction

Coley style: Out Boxer

Macias style: Power Slugger

Interaction: medium advantage Coley.

Advantage: Coley

Model: FiteQuant

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